Thread by @MarkHertling

For those saying "don't doubt Ukraine's soldiers, they've proven themselves & can handle any tank they're given," I'd say 3 things:

1. I've never doubted Ukrainian tankers to learn how to fire & drive the Abrams. I've worked w/ Ukraine's Army, I know them. They're good. 1/

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1617946103797764097

2. It's isn't "learning the tank" I'm concerned about:
--can they quickly learn the capability of the Abrams (& Leopard II) the way it is designed to operate. That's training w/ other tanks, infantry, scouts, drones,artillery, engineers, intel...all more than crew training. 2/

--when the tank - or small critical parts in the tank - break (which they do), & when those small & large replacement parts need replacing, & when it requires daily/weekly/monthly echelon maintenance, will Ukraine have also trained those who do these things. 3/

-- after the tank crews, sections, companies, battalions master the gunnery skills, the maneuver, and the maintenance, will there also be echelons of support that will flow the needed parts, FUPPs, ammo, fuel, roadwheels, torsion bars, etc, etc, to the front lines? 4/

The reason I ask these things is because I've seen how real armored operations work, and I know how American soldiers & units train continuously to get all these things synchronized.

And it requires teamwork OUTSIDE THE TANK UNITS, TOO! 5/

Those saying "just give them the damned tanks!" have likely never seen the choreography to making this work on the battlefield.

And those saying "Ukraine has already incorporated other things, they can do this too!" I'd only say I've seen US units- at our training centers...6/

...and in combat get just a few things wrong and it causes disaster and failure. Lethal tanks turn into pillboxes that don't move or shoot.

To make all this work, it takes training, maintenance, supply & a team - beyond just the tankers - to get this right on the battlefield.7/

I'm ecstatic Germany seems to have made a decision to provide Leos & it appears the US may provide some Abrams for the long term.

But like I said it would take months to get Patriots to the battlefield (it looks like 3 months), getting these transfers will take time & effort. 8/

I'll guess Leos will be ready for the fight by (maybe) March. Abrams, likely, are a followon (I'll be listening to the POTUS speech tomorrow, but I suspect they are 8+ months out).

But that's lightening speed to deliver & prepare a force not trained on these vehicles.9/

All of this is VERY different from delivering and training individual soldiers on Javelin & Stingers, and crews on MRAPS, HMMWVS, HIMARS & Bradleys.

Tanks, like aircraft, are a whole different ball game. 10/

Combined arms conventional operations with lethal heavy armor isn't a video game.

You can't drop technologically advanced equipment onto the battlefield expecting soldiers who do not know it will be able to use it, maintain it, or integrate it into a combined arms team. 11/

And for everyone also saying "the west should have given all this to them months ago," I'd say "maybe, but an army and country fighting for it's life had a few other things on their mind, and we hadn't reached this part of the fight just yet."

In war, it's hard to predict. 12/

Let me end where I started.

UKR's Army has proven itself. They've adapted & that's key to winning. UA soldiers are terrific & I know many of them. But RU's failure has also contributed to UA getting this far.

Tanks will make a difference, but there'll be hiccups. 13/13