Thread by @Scot126126

#panr $panr $pthrf
There appears to be a massive misunderstanding about what the "illustrative" Alkaid model published by $panr means. I think I can be of some assistance 😇.
The NPV figures released yesterday formed a *base* case on the *current* volume and the...1/

...*current* hydrocarbon mix, incorporating the *current* pricing of ANS (oil/NGL/condensate) and addressing the Alkaid reservoir *only*.
Current mkt cap: $500m
Alkaid anomaly NPV10 @ $80 oil = $423m
Alkaid anomaly NPV10 @ $70 oil = $223m
Alkaid anomaly NPV10 @ $60 oil = $12m
2/

#panr $panr $pthrf
A) Volume expected to improve in absolute *and* per thousand feet terms after the blockage is cleared. Nordic rig arrives at Alkaid-2 pad today to begin clean-out procedure. 7-10 days duration.

B) Hydrocarbon mix is expected to improve after the frack...3/

...sand blockage has been cleared as the ratio of oil within the hydrocarbon mix grows.

C) Company stated they weren't yet collecting the volumetric data for *all* the NGLs being produced. Management stated specifically they knew further "higher value" NGLs were being...4/
#panr

...produced but they lacked the equipment to collect that data currently. They have *not* included any such value for these as yet unmeasured NGLs in their *base case* NPVs.

D) Future production wells in a full field development will be >8000ft laterals...5/
#panr $pthrf $panr

...and not 5300ft.

E) The Alkaid anomaly reservoir constitutes a relatively small 3-4% of $panr's total recoverable resource of 2.3bbo. Both Talitha and Theta West dwarf Alkaid in scale (10x, 20x) and have superior reservoir characteristics so field economics...6/
#panr $pthrf

...are modelled to be better than that of the Alkaid Unit.

F) Alkaid was drilled and put on a Long Term Production Test (LTPT) *before* the other, far larger reservoirs *precisely because* it is situated c.200m from the Dalton Highway. Plus the SoA allowed the...7/
#panr $panr

...construction of a gravel pad for all year round activity.

G) The Alkaid anomaly constitutes c.3-4% of PANR's total recoverable resource of 2.3bbo. At $80 oil *and with a partially blocked lateral* the company is stating that not only is Alkaid commercial *as is* but it...8/

...also pretty much supports the current mkt cap.

So the smallest (of 5) reservoirs which constitutes 3-4% of #panr's total recoverable resource has an NPV10 value (at $80 oil) of $423m v's a mkt cap of $500m. The market is telling us that Talitha and...9/
$panr

...Theta West (described by AHS Baker Hughes as "a world class petroleum system") are worth zero.

Do the math(s). The market is dead wrong IMO.

Best wishes to the crew of the Nordic rig as they work to unblock the Alkaid-2 lateral. News in the coming days/weeks.
#panr $panr