Some updates from today (some of these things didn't happen today but I updated it today):
First, the gray area around Ploschanka is much larger than previously thought. Russia has much less control.
There was a warehouse destroyed in Kupyansk.
Ukraine HIMARSed the Fire station and music school in Kreminna.
Russia expanded their area of control south of Kreminna.
Ukraine HIMARSed Rubizhne (I don't actually know where)
North of Bakhmut, Ukraine reportedly counter attacked. I couldn't find confirmation so I didn't mark it. I just thought I would bring it up.
In the Klishchiivka area Russia is expanding their control west.
Near Avdiivka and Pisky I marked Russian expansion of control. It is really sad and pathetic how many casualties they took achieving this, like dozens and dozens of armored vehicles. Also, this area of control might be too liberal, some of this might still be contested.
Near Vuhledar, Russia expanded west a bit in the Mykilske dachas and are reportedly in the outskirts of Vuhledar itself. I've heard from multiple sources that Ukraine counter attacked, and one source claims Ukraine pushed Russia all the way back to the eastern part of the dachas.
Russia is also attacking the northern part of Pavlivka.
Russia is attacking the distant approaches to Prechystivka, Velyka Novosilka, Novopil, Poltavka...
and Hulyaipole. They are also attacking the northern outskirts of Dorozhnyanka. The eastern outskirts of Charivne, the south of Bilohirya, the southern outskirts of Mali Shcherbaky and the southern outskirts of Stepove. Finally, Russia is sending recon into Kamyanska.
To get a bigger picture of these towns.
In the Zaporizhzhia area, Ukraine blew up two ammo depots (explosion markers) and a S300 (highlighted missile icon) in addition to missile strikes on Tokmak and Basan.
Ukraine also took out the power in Horlivka, presumably with a missile strike.
In return, Russia performed precision missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro. And Attacked Kyiv with Shahed drones.
Apparently I forgot to put the image for Vuhledar
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This Volya post I 100% agree with. I think this is spot on. Right now Russia is preparing an offensive that will be tied to a information war campaign. The goal is to make both Ukrainians and westerners, feel that the country is on the brink of disaster. t.me/volyamedia/520
I don’t know where the offensive will take place, I’m sure it will become increasingly obvious as time passes and we get closer, but I suspect they will attempt breakthroughs in multiple areas simultaneously, likely supported by missile attacks on infrastructure.
I think they will try to post as much misinformation as possible to make it seem like that have massive successes everywhere at once. Their goal will be to break the spirit of the west. And I believe they will fail.
Regarding Zaporizhzhia: I haven't been able to find firsthand accounts about Russia's attacks, which is a little frustrating. But I can find secondhand accounts (as opposed to random telegram posts, which are thirdhand garbage, at best) which are supported by vide evidence.
These sources point to a few basic facts.
1: this area is very difficult to successfully attack, and small movements have little or no value. Large movements require huge investments due to the enormity of the area that must be crossed (thus relative ease of defense).
2: The movements claimed versus supported by evidence are vastly different. The evidence suggests fields and farmlands are crossed, which is reasonable. The claims are large numbers of settlements captured. This would require significant evidence.
As we talked about on last night's stream, Ukraine has completely captured Novoselivske. They control everything up to the train station.
Russia has attempted counter attacks, roughly around where the arrow is here. These counter attacks have failed.
Looking at a 3D view, Novoselivske is the highpoint looking down on a valley. The Russians are now forced to defend the valley itself from Ukrainians who can now spot them using scouts, drones, etc and shoot down from the high ground using tanks, mortars, etc.