So no recession in q4, hardly any slowdown. I mean after 7 rates hikes and 400 bp later, we ticked down from 3.2% to 2.9%…but the lags…yes q1 23 will be weaker, below trend even, but will also be low point. This outstanding feat is DESPITE manufacturing and housing slowing
1/3
1/3
What carried the economy were the consumers with their still high stock of excess savings and barely tapped sky high home equity. This will get a disinflation tailwind, while manufacturing recovers from the bullwhip, retail sales accelerate with recovering auto sales
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and a stubbornly resilient labor market with solid low earners wage growth. FCI restrictive impulse is quickly fading. Liquidity is expanding. Fiscal policy flipped to a tailwind. Add global dynamics like China re-opening and you get the perfect mix for the #bigflip
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3/3
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