Kreminna-Svatove
The AFU repulsed attacks around Chervonopopivka, Verkhn'okam'yans'ke and Spirne. It's more or less completely silent from the Svatove direction at the movement.
Bakhmut
The AFU replused attacks around Rozdolivka, Blagodatne, Bakhmut and Klishchiivka. The situation seems stabilized for now. There has not been any significant change the last few days.
Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of
Maryinka, Vugledar and Pavlivka. RuAF are using the 40th and 155th Naval Infantry Brigdes once again to attack in the Vugledar area. The RU NIBs have a decent track record and are considered among the better units in RuAF.
According to the latest information I have, RuAF have not entered the city it self and intense fighting is going on in the dachas SE of the city. RuAF are also trying to advance from the Pavlivka direction, unsure how far they have reach.
A small repetition of why Vuhledar is important for the Russians.
At the moment AFU have the Volnovakha-Donetsk railroad and H20 high way in artillery range. This affects the RU logistics from the eastern direction negatively.
As can be seen here, all railroad traffic must come via Crimea and the Kerch bridge, which I don't believe is fully operational for train traffic.
There are two railroad connection between Crimea and Kherson oblast. One results in a dead end, and the other is connected over a bridge. This means the entire RU southern frontline is extremely venerable once Ukraine receive longer range fires.
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility.
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances.
A lot of people are asking what we see in this image.
The two orange circles show where the impacts were, 3 holes at each circle making it 6 in total. There is no other visible damage.
Image from @michaelh992