SqueezeMetrics Profile picture
Jan 27, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
When you

1. segment a stock's time-series into a "price" (up, down) and "volatility" (rising, falling) component, and then
2. plot each of those on an axis, and then
3. color the coordinates according to forward returns at each of the [x, y] coordinates... Image
...you learn a lot about the way a stock trades that you wouldn't be able to learn by simply looking at a chart.

The above stock, for example, responds negatively to increases in volatility (↑), and positively to decreases on volatility (↓).

Seems useful to know.
But you'd *never* learn something like this just by looking at the time-series itself. Image
This may seem obvious, but to the extent that it is possible, it is good to view data from many angles, cross-sectionally, and in multiple dimensions.

Heatmaps give us three dimensions.

3-D color-coded scatter plots give us four!
Heck, add some interactivity and animation (sliders, time-progression) to a 3-D color-coded scatterplot and you're viewing *five* dimensions of data, or more.

This is advantageous!
Why did we tweet this?

Because we're on the verge of losing a bet with someone.

We thought that we'd start seeing more heatmaps and 3-D visualization in financial research and analysis within a few months. But this has not happened.

Please pull it together, people.

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More from @SqueezeMetrics

Mar 7, 2024
Gold, the original meme coin, is breaching all-time-highs. Since there's no real reason to ever buy or sell gold, positioning and flows are an important part of what drives price. Image
One particular data point has proven to be very useful through time—and it's fun because it's illustrative of the underlying reality.

From the CFTC CoT report, "Swap Dealer Long" positions: Image
This indicates the extent to which dealers are hedging by being long gold futures. Why would dealers hedge by being long gold futures? Because some customer of theirs buys some kind of conditional long exposure to gold's price from them.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 12, 2024
What follows is some information that tends to induce people to make bad decisions. So, disclaimer: Don't make bad decisions.

There's some unique positioning in S&P options right now.

Dealer SPX vanna exposure (VEX) is at all-time highs.
Specifically, VEX is around $500mm.

That means that when VIX rises, there's an unusually high mechanical bid for the S&P 500, which reinforces an "auto-dip-buying" mechanism. It's very supportive. Image
Another way to understand this is that dealers are "long skew." That's because customers have sold a lot of low-delta, OTM puts to dealers.

@Ksidiii has been sounding the alarm on this for a couple weeks. It's notable, and he's seen it happening firsthand. Image
Read 5 tweets
Dec 9, 2023
People are still saying stupid things about 0DTE options, so let's dredge up an old note to point people in the right direction.

Non-blue-check, non-revenue-sharing, character-limited free-tier Xitter thread below.
Balderdash. Image
Get yours while supplies last! Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 9, 2023
Predicting inflation has little to do with money supply or the velocity of money or the Fed balance sheet or whatever.

Inflation is a price (a meta-price) in a betting market like any other betting market, and it responds chiefly to the bets that people have taken on it.
When people are afraid of a price(s) going up, they hedge that with some kind of swap or option or future, and when a lot of people hedge, the thing that they're hedging against won't happen. Because betting markets are reflexive.
When people aren't afraid of a price going up, they don't hedge it, and the price is more likely to go up.

Ah, sweet irony.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 11, 2023
Let's talk about this:

JPM's notoriously huge collar strategy got attacked at its last roll. Its next roll happens at the end of this month. The strategy's short call strike is 4320.

What happens this time?

Commentary from April 2nd.
I see, I see.

+3.00%
@pranasnadi @LyfeOfPELK The point is that if SPX rises, e.g., to 4536, at EOM, then comes back to 4320 afterward, the collar strategy lost 5% of performance versus the index, literally giving over $750mm of investor funds to the people who were playing this game.
Read 4 tweets
May 17, 2023
Today in the exciting world of quantitative volatility analysis: If you are backtesting a volatility strategy or calibrating your vol-time, remember that the Juneteenth national holiday was signed into law on June 17th of 2021, but did not result in a
National Market System closure until June of 2022 and that future market closures will [partly] follow the July 4th Independence Day convention which means that when the holiday falls on a weekday the closure will occur on that weekday and if the holiday falls on a weekend the
closure will favor the nearest weekday (e.g., if the 19th is on a Saturday, the closure will occur on Friday) but take care that your July 4th observance market calendar takes into account that the trading day prior is subject to an early close (1:00 pm EDT) but that this is not
Read 4 tweets

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