An example of why I believe volume indicator of #MBMV2_0 is the most important indicator for understanding market participants behavior -
From last 3 days before 25th Jan, I was seeing an unusual pick up in volume which might not be very substantial in itself (1/n) #MBMV2_0
but was unusual - because the context wasn't supporting it. We usually see a pick-up in volume only when confidence in the market picks up, when stocks start moving up.
But this time the market was actually negative and had shown a pick-up in volume, that too before (2/n)
budget, showing a silent distribution from informed sellers. I expressed my concern to a close friend too.
All I want to show here is - I spent 3 months in fixing my data and creating this market breadth sheet because I didn't want to produce one another half-baked sheet (3/n)
which don't have enough backing on data etc. But this entire effort became worth because of this volume indicator - which is currently the most important indicator for me to understand market behavior. Close observation on day-to-day basis will give you a solid grip on it. (4/4)
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Neil, the IPOBase strategy you shared in your newsletter - which was shared by your friend - was popularized in India by my research which was published in March 2021. It is actually O'Neil's work, but had never been popularized here because no one ever did a #deepdive on it. (1)
But #IPOBase in not only about buying the high of the listing week. It is infact an extremely poor interpretation of the work.
A strategy is not only limited to a setup, what makes it effective is when you manage it according to its nature & potential. (2)
The entire fintwit community took the setup from my research - which was done on all IPOs listed since 2017 and parts of it was published on twitter - but didn't paid attention to the trade management rules which resulted into underperformance for them. (3)
entering this stock was 3 days out of which on 18th Nov. gave a strong recovery and closed strongly. Next two days saw a volatility contraction in form of inside bars.
If a stock is not falling down, it is first sign of a probable recovery. Anything which is not going down (2/n)
shows its line of least resistance is not downwards, but have higher chance of it having upwards (which confirms through breakout).
Volatility is both - a trader's friend and the biggest foe. Foe when it is directionless, and friend when it expands in one direction and (3/n)
- Market is bear grip - both in long and short term.
- Volume still staying around 0.45, not suggesting any extreme. There is a high chance to see a continuation of the current situation for some more time.
corner. Don't be in hurry to label any green day a start of a bull swing. Whenever market will stretch in shorter term time frame, it will give a green day or a strong opening, only to be sold off later. Beware of bull traps.
Such actions further tighten the bear grip. (2/n)
- US had a gap up start on Friday only to be cool off later. It lacks FOMO and FOMO is the life blood of any uptrend. When a beaten down market first comes into bull run, it sustains the advances rather than giving it up.
- Preferable strategy to trade in this market is (3/n)