Thread by @ElbridgeColby

Despite protestations to the contrary, it's increasingly clear that Ukraine is indeed a distraction from our stated priority: Asia, China, and Taiwan. We can admit it and try to adapt. Or we can deny it and pay the price later. I advise the former. 1/

wsj.com/articles/ukrai…

We can and should still support Ukraine *but* only consistent with *genuinely* prioritizing defense of Taiwan. Regardless of what a lot of prominent people are saying, that's *not* what we're doing. 2/

wsj.com/articles/will-…

Honestly the flood of denials that this is *precisely* the case despite clear evidence that Ukraine is taking resources and attention from Taiwan is one of the most compelling pieces of evidence. "Doth protest too much" is usually a tell that the accusation is true. 3/

It's especially important to reckon with reality because 1) the war in Ukraine doesn't look like it's going to end anytime soon and 2) the military balance over Taiwan is deteriorating. 4/

There's a lot of hand waving that Russia can be decisively defeated and that the defense industrial base must be quickly revamped. Yet if we're being serious and realistic, neither of these seems plausible, especially in the near term. Are we going to deal with reality or not? 5/