Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Jan 27, 2023 26 tweets 13 min read Read on X
Soon Challenger 2, Leopard 2A5/6 and M1A1/2 Abrams will roam across the Ukrainian steppe to hunt and destroy russian armor.

All three are leagues better than what the russians field, but tanks on their own are useless. So, an easy to understand thread about combined arms 🧵:
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Western tanks like the M1A1/2 Abrams, Challenger 2, Leopard 2A5/6/7, Leclerc, Ariete AMV, Merkava IV, K2 Black Panther have way better armor than russian tanks.

An M1A2 Abrams is visibly larger than i.e. a T-72 or a T-80, and weighs (depending on model) 15-20 tons more.
2/n ImageImage
That extra weight is mostly armor. russian tanks are not able to penetrate the front armor of modern Western tanks at distances of 2 km (because the armor is twice as thick as what russian APFSDS projectiles can penetrate).

Photo of a Strv 122 APFSDS training round, which
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in its non-training version will smash through all russian tanks' frontal armor with ease.

More importantly Western tanks have way better optics, which means Western crews will see russian tanks first and from further away. And thanks to ballistic computers, which use laser
4/n
rangefinders, wind sensors, cant sensors, boresight data, ammo, barrel and air temperature, barometric pressure, tank and target speed etc. Western tank guns never miss a shot.

Photos of a USMC M1A1 FEP AIDATS commander's station, vs. a russian T-90 commander's station.
5/n ImageImage
But the biggest advantage of Western tanks are their far superior thermal sights.

At night russian tankers won't even see Western tanks, while Western tanks will see, target and destroy russian tanks from distances of up to 5km. russian tank crews will only survive if they
6/n
jump out and run, because with reverse speeds of 4 km/h (T-72), 10 km/h (T-80), and 6 km/h (T-90) there is no escape for russian tanks from Western APFSDS rounds.

In this video a Finnish T-72 reverses at maximum speed... and if a russian tank does a U-turn, then the APFSDS
7/n
will punch through the russian tanks thinly armored side or rear.

The only danger Western tanks will encounter in Ukraine is russian infantry or helicopters with anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM). As expected the russians are technologically 20 years behind and so don't have
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Fire and Forget ATGMs like the Javelin, Spike or Akeron and no top-attack ATGMs, and no overfly top attack ATGMs.
russian anti-tank teams have to see the target and aim at it from launch until impact, which means they are immobile... and that firing smoke grenades can defeat
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incoming russian missiles.
But the best way to defeat enemy infantry is infantry paired with infantry fighting vehicles (IFV) like the Bradley, CV90, etc.
Let me compress this info in a very simplified way: IFVs and the infantry they carry protect tanks from enemy infantry,
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while tanks protect IFVs and the infantry they carry from enemy tanks.

The tanks' 120mm tank gun is used to destroy enemy tanks and bunkers.
The IFVs 25-40mm autocannon is used to destroy enemy infantry and light vehicles.
The infantry is used to clear enemy positions and
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enemy-held buildings.
As said: this is very simplified. If you attack just with infantry, or only with tanks - you will get your troops massacred and tanks destroyed, as russia shows us every day again and again and again.
But tanks, IFVs, and infantry are still not enough
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for a successful armored attack formation. Armored recovery vehicles, armored engineer vehicles, armored bridgelayers, and self-propelled anti-aircraft gun are required or an combined arms attack will bog down and be defeated.
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Armored Recovery Vehicles (ARV) are needed to recover damaged tanks and IFVs before the enemy can destroy or capture them. Modern ARVs like the German Bergepanzer Büffel (pictured) on a Leopard 2 chassis can recover damaged tanks while the crew remains inside the vehicle.
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All modern Western ARVs: American M88A2 Hercules, British CRARRV, French DNG/DCL, German Büffel, include a crane to help repair damaged tanks in the field.
No ARV means every damaged tank is lost, and even if you can recover one, without the crane you can't repair it.
15/n ImageImageImageImage
Germany sent 15 older Leopard 1 based Bergepanzer 2A2 ARVs, which are much less armored than the eight M88A2 Hercules the US sent. Still more are needed.

Armored Engineer Vehicles (AEV) are needed to remove obstacles like anti-tank ditches and to open lanes in minefields.
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Without AEVs an armored attack will be stopped by the obstacles it encounters, but with AEVs:
if there is a minefield send i.e. a Leopard 2 based AEV3 Kodiak or an Abrams based M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle with a mine plow forward to clear a lane, while the tanks,
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IFVs, and infantry cover the AEVs. If an anti-tank ditch is the problem send i.e. a Leopard 2 based Wisent 2 or a Challenger 2 based Trojan forward to fill it in.

So far only five older Leopard 1 based Dachs 2A1 have been delivered, so far more are needed.
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To clear a lane through a minefield the M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle can also launch two line charges, which when detonated will destroy the buried mines and thus clear a lane for the attack to continue.

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Armored bridgelayers allow the crossing of streams, brooks, etc.
Without bridgelayers an armored attack must either ford a river (risky because of the mud) or move around it.
Germany sent 16 Biber bridgelayers, which are Leopard 1 based and can't be used with Leopard 2 or
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M1A1/2 Abrams or Challenger 2, as the maximum weight the bridge can carry is 55 tons.

Therefore either American M1074 JAB, British Titan, American M104 Wolverine, or German Leguan bridgelayers are needed (the latter two are best, as they offer a much smaller silhouette when
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deploying the bridge.

Self-propelled anti-aircraft guns (SPAAG) are needed to shoot down enemy drones and helicopters... but only Finland built a SPAAG on a modern tank chassis: the Leopard 2 Marksman. But only seven pieces were built.

Other NATO members use the Stinger
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with the US using a Bradley variant called M6 Linebacker that carries four Stinger missiles. Good against helicopters, but pricey when used against drones.
Luckily Ukraine received 37 Leopard 1 based 7 Gepard SPAAGs. Ukraine can pair the Gepard with their armored spearheads,
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unless Sweden includes the better Luftvärnskanonvagn 9040 in their CV90 donation.

This almost concludes this combined arms thread. I focused on the key systems: tanks, IFVs, and tank based armored support vehicles, BUT combined arms also includes reconnaissance, artillery,
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helicopters, logistics, a lot of IFV based support vehicles, and so on and on.

russia has shown again and again that it is incapable of combined arms, and Ukraine now gets the tools for it - but training will take some time. And then Ukrainian forces will be unstoppable.

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PS: an armored attack with all the armored support vehicles is stopped by nothing, not even a forest as this video of a Bergepanzer 2 shows (watch until the end).

26/end

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More from @noclador

Feb 29
Air Force reductions in Europe 1989 - 2024
A look at 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇩🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹🇧🇪🇳🇱🇩🇰🇳🇴🇸🇪🇫🇮🇨🇦🇵🇹🇪🇸

Let's start with fighter bases in Germany:
• left 1989
• right 2024

1/
Image
Image
Fighters based in Germany in 1989:

🇺🇸 156× F-16C Falcon, 72× F-15C Eagle, 58× F-4 Phantom II = 286
🇬🇧 96× Tornado, 32× Harrier GR.3, 32× Phantom FGR.2 = 160
🇩🇪 312× Tornado, 224× F-4 Phantom II, 168× Alpha Jets = 704
🇨🇦 54× CF-18 Hornet

Total: 1,204 fighters
2/
Fighters based in Germany in 2024:

🇺🇸 24× F-16CJ/DJ (Block 50) Falcon
🇩🇪 141× Eurofighter, 68× Tornado IDS, 21× Tornado ECR = 230 (-474)

Total: 254 fighters (-950 fighters vs. 1989)
3/
Read 25 tweets
Feb 22
#Transnistria asking putin to annex it to russia is insane.

The center of Tiraspol, the capital of this russian created fake state, is barely 10km from Ukraine... and there are 0 geographical obstacles between Ukraine and Transnistria.

The six Ukrainian brigades currently
1/4 Image
in the Odesa region (20,000+ battle hardened troops) outmatch the approximately 4,000 Transnistrian troops and 1,000 russian troops. And half of the Transnistrian troops are in the north, while half of the russians are on the other side of the Dniester in the city of Bender,
2/4
with just one bridge connecting Bender to the rest of Transnistria... not to mention that if Ukraine goes in, then so will Moldova and Romania, which will see the few Transnistrian troops attacked from ALL sides.
Ukraine has the easiest route to enter Transnistria: this image
3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 19
Wrong. The British needed arms and ammo to withstand a German invasion in 1940.

Every British soldier in this photo is equipped with US "surplus war supplies", that Roosevelt allowed to be shipped to the UK on 1 June 1940. Included were: 900 field guns with half a million
1/4
Image
shells, 80,000 machine guns and half a million rifles with 125 million rounds. This allowed the UK to build up its forces after the defeat at Dunkirk.

Britain needed US materiel to survive the first two war years. Without this US help Hitler would have taken London.
2/4
If the US had refused to help the UK, US troops would have had to land on the beaches of England before Normandy... and at least 300,000 more Americans would have been killed.

Like Lindbergh Vance wants to hand a US ally over to fascists, without understanding that this will
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Feb 18
🇺🇸 US Army material based or stored in depots in Europe in 1989 and what is left in 2024 in brackets:

Armor:
• M1A1 Abrams: 3,189 (0)
• M2 Bradley: 3,085 (0)

Artillery:
• (M109A3 & M110A2): 1,320 (M119: 12 & M777A2: 24)
• M270 MLRS: 288 (32)

1/4 Image
Helicopters:
• Attack (AH-1F & AH-64): 572 (AH-64E: 24)
• Scout (OH-58C & OH-58D): 597 (0)

US Air Force fighters based in Europe in 1989:
• A-10 Thunderbolt: 144
• F-4G Phantom II: 58
• F-15C Eagle: 96
• F-16C Falcon: 244
• F-111E/F Aardvark: 186

Total: 728 fighter.
2/4 Image
And the number of US Air Force fighters based in Europe in 2024:

• F-16CM/DM Block 40: 48
• F-16CJ/DJ Block 50: 24
• F-15E Strike Eagle: 48
• F-35A Lightning II: 48

Total: 168 fighter.

For the US it is much cheaper to have troops in Europe and deter russia now, than to
3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 18
Some examples of operational equipment reductions from 1989 to 2024:

Let's start with main battle tanks:
🇩🇪 3,892 -> 248
🇫🇷 1,297 -> 200
🇮🇹 1,206 -> 200
🇬🇧 855 -> 148
🇳🇱 750 -> 16
🇸🇪 660 -> 110
🇩🇰 330 -> 44
🇧🇪 296 -> 0
1/6 Image
Now artillery - first howitzers and in brackets multiple rocket launchers:

🇩🇪 1,206 (352) -> 104 (32)
🇮🇹 888 (18) -> 160 (18 + 18 ordered)
🇸🇪 822 -> 26
🇫🇷 608 (24) -> 96 (11)
🇳🇱 402 (18) -> 35 (20 ordered)
🇬🇧 357 (24) -> 156 (~40)
🇩🇰 306 -> 19 (8 ordered)
🇧🇪 162 -> 14
2/6 Image
Major naval units: first destroyers, frigates and corvettes; with missile boats in [] & submarines ():

🇩🇪 15 [40] (24) -> 12 (6)
🇮🇹 20 + 1 cruiser [7] (8) -> 16 (8)
🇬🇧 46 (32) -> 16 (10)
🇳🇱 16 (5) -> 6 (3)
🇸🇪 2 + [12] (12) -> 7 (4)
🇩🇰 5 + [10] (5) -> 5
🇧🇪 4 -> 2
3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Feb 17
In 1989 the Italian Army fielded the following brigades:

• Alpine Brigade "Cadore"
• Alpine Brigade "Julia"
• Alpine Brigade "Orobica"
• Alpine Brigade "Taurinense"
• Alpine Brigade "Tridentina"
• Armored Brigade "Ariete"
• Armored Brigade "Centauro"
1/9 Image
• Armored Brigade "Mameli"
• Armored Brigade "Pozzuolo del Friuli"
• Mechanized Brigade "Brescia"
• Mechanized Brigade "Garibaldi"
• Mechanized Brigade "Goito"
• Mechanized Brigade "Gorizia"
• Mechanized Brigade "Granatieri di Sardegna"
• Mechanized Brigade "Legnano"
2/9
• Mechanized Brigade "Mantova"
• Mechanized Brigade "Pinerolo"
• Mechanized Brigade "Trieste"
• Mechanized Brigade "Vittorio Veneto"
• Motorized Brigade "Acqui"
• Motorized Brigade "Aosta"
• Motorized Brigade "Cremona"
• Motorized Brigade "Friuli"
3/9
Read 10 tweets

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