Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Jan 27, 2023 26 tweets 13 min read Read on X
Soon Challenger 2, Leopard 2A5/6 and M1A1/2 Abrams will roam across the Ukrainian steppe to hunt and destroy russian armor.

All three are leagues better than what the russians field, but tanks on their own are useless. So, an easy to understand thread about combined arms 🧵:
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Western tanks like the M1A1/2 Abrams, Challenger 2, Leopard 2A5/6/7, Leclerc, Ariete AMV, Merkava IV, K2 Black Panther have way better armor than russian tanks.

An M1A2 Abrams is visibly larger than i.e. a T-72 or a T-80, and weighs (depending on model) 15-20 tons more.
2/n ImageImage
That extra weight is mostly armor. russian tanks are not able to penetrate the front armor of modern Western tanks at distances of 2 km (because the armor is twice as thick as what russian APFSDS projectiles can penetrate).

Photo of a Strv 122 APFSDS training round, which
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in its non-training version will smash through all russian tanks' frontal armor with ease.

More importantly Western tanks have way better optics, which means Western crews will see russian tanks first and from further away. And thanks to ballistic computers, which use laser
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rangefinders, wind sensors, cant sensors, boresight data, ammo, barrel and air temperature, barometric pressure, tank and target speed etc. Western tank guns never miss a shot.

Photos of a USMC M1A1 FEP AIDATS commander's station, vs. a russian T-90 commander's station.
5/n ImageImage
But the biggest advantage of Western tanks are their far superior thermal sights.

At night russian tankers won't even see Western tanks, while Western tanks will see, target and destroy russian tanks from distances of up to 5km. russian tank crews will only survive if they
6/n
jump out and run, because with reverse speeds of 4 km/h (T-72), 10 km/h (T-80), and 6 km/h (T-90) there is no escape for russian tanks from Western APFSDS rounds.

In this video a Finnish T-72 reverses at maximum speed... and if a russian tank does a U-turn, then the APFSDS
7/n
will punch through the russian tanks thinly armored side or rear.

The only danger Western tanks will encounter in Ukraine is russian infantry or helicopters with anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM). As expected the russians are technologically 20 years behind and so don't have
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Fire and Forget ATGMs like the Javelin, Spike or Akeron and no top-attack ATGMs, and no overfly top attack ATGMs.
russian anti-tank teams have to see the target and aim at it from launch until impact, which means they are immobile... and that firing smoke grenades can defeat
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incoming russian missiles.
But the best way to defeat enemy infantry is infantry paired with infantry fighting vehicles (IFV) like the Bradley, CV90, etc.
Let me compress this info in a very simplified way: IFVs and the infantry they carry protect tanks from enemy infantry,
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while tanks protect IFVs and the infantry they carry from enemy tanks.

The tanks' 120mm tank gun is used to destroy enemy tanks and bunkers.
The IFVs 25-40mm autocannon is used to destroy enemy infantry and light vehicles.
The infantry is used to clear enemy positions and
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enemy-held buildings.
As said: this is very simplified. If you attack just with infantry, or only with tanks - you will get your troops massacred and tanks destroyed, as russia shows us every day again and again and again.
But tanks, IFVs, and infantry are still not enough
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for a successful armored attack formation. Armored recovery vehicles, armored engineer vehicles, armored bridgelayers, and self-propelled anti-aircraft gun are required or an combined arms attack will bog down and be defeated.
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Armored Recovery Vehicles (ARV) are needed to recover damaged tanks and IFVs before the enemy can destroy or capture them. Modern ARVs like the German Bergepanzer Büffel (pictured) on a Leopard 2 chassis can recover damaged tanks while the crew remains inside the vehicle.
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All modern Western ARVs: American M88A2 Hercules, British CRARRV, French DNG/DCL, German Büffel, include a crane to help repair damaged tanks in the field.
No ARV means every damaged tank is lost, and even if you can recover one, without the crane you can't repair it.
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Germany sent 15 older Leopard 1 based Bergepanzer 2A2 ARVs, which are much less armored than the eight M88A2 Hercules the US sent. Still more are needed.

Armored Engineer Vehicles (AEV) are needed to remove obstacles like anti-tank ditches and to open lanes in minefields.
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Without AEVs an armored attack will be stopped by the obstacles it encounters, but with AEVs:
if there is a minefield send i.e. a Leopard 2 based AEV3 Kodiak or an Abrams based M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle with a mine plow forward to clear a lane, while the tanks,
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IFVs, and infantry cover the AEVs. If an anti-tank ditch is the problem send i.e. a Leopard 2 based Wisent 2 or a Challenger 2 based Trojan forward to fill it in.

So far only five older Leopard 1 based Dachs 2A1 have been delivered, so far more are needed.
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To clear a lane through a minefield the M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle can also launch two line charges, which when detonated will destroy the buried mines and thus clear a lane for the attack to continue.

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Armored bridgelayers allow the crossing of streams, brooks, etc.
Without bridgelayers an armored attack must either ford a river (risky because of the mud) or move around it.
Germany sent 16 Biber bridgelayers, which are Leopard 1 based and can't be used with Leopard 2 or
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M1A1/2 Abrams or Challenger 2, as the maximum weight the bridge can carry is 55 tons.

Therefore either American M1074 JAB, British Titan, American M104 Wolverine, or German Leguan bridgelayers are needed (the latter two are best, as they offer a much smaller silhouette when
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deploying the bridge.

Self-propelled anti-aircraft guns (SPAAG) are needed to shoot down enemy drones and helicopters... but only Finland built a SPAAG on a modern tank chassis: the Leopard 2 Marksman. But only seven pieces were built.

Other NATO members use the Stinger
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with the US using a Bradley variant called M6 Linebacker that carries four Stinger missiles. Good against helicopters, but pricey when used against drones.
Luckily Ukraine received 37 Leopard 1 based 7 Gepard SPAAGs. Ukraine can pair the Gepard with their armored spearheads,
23/n ImageImage
unless Sweden includes the better Luftvärnskanonvagn 9040 in their CV90 donation.

This almost concludes this combined arms thread. I focused on the key systems: tanks, IFVs, and tank based armored support vehicles, BUT combined arms also includes reconnaissance, artillery,
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helicopters, logistics, a lot of IFV based support vehicles, and so on and on.

russia has shown again and again that it is incapable of combined arms, and Ukraine now gets the tools for it - but training will take some time. And then Ukrainian forces will be unstoppable.

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PS: an armored attack with all the armored support vehicles is stopped by nothing, not even a forest as this video of a Bergepanzer 2 shows (watch until the end).

26/end

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More from @noclador

Feb 22
I set out to create a table showing the reduction in British Infantry units between 1989 and 2025...

After doing Scotland, Wales and Yorkshire - I gave up.

For three reason:
a) the sheer size of it! The British Army had 100 infantry battalions in 1989 (not counting the
1/8 Image
nine battalions of the Ulster Defence Regiment).
b) the British Army's habit of reroling battalions every four years.
c) the disbanding of volunteer regiments in the early 1990s, then the merging of volunteer battalions into new volunteer regiments in the mid 1990s, and then
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the disbanding of these new volunteer regiments some 5-6 years later, followed by the de-merging of some of the volunteer battalions.

In short: it was all very haphazard and chaotic!

So, instead here come the numbers about the British Army's infantry decline between 1989
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Read 8 tweets
Feb 17
I spent my evening creating this graphic to show how much the 🇬🇧 British Army's armoured forces have atrophied since 1989:

• overall from 19 cavalry regiments to 9
• and from 14 armoured (tank) regiments to 2

This is no longer a credible force for peer-to-peer conflict.
1/4 Image
The picture is equally bad for other NATO armies, which however did not amalgamate their cavalry/armoured forces, but simply disbanded tank units.
These numbers of disbanded tank battalions for the main NATO nations are (1989 -> 2025):

🇺🇸 123 -> 31
🇩🇪 81 -> 5
🇫🇷 21 -> 4
2/4
🇮🇹 19 -> 3
🇳🇱 12 -> 0
🇪🇸 11 -> 4
🇩🇰 8 -> 1
🇧🇪 8 -> 0

On the other hand 🇵🇱 Poland has 18 tanks battalions (1 more than the 7 European nations listed above combined).
The war in Ukraine has shown that armies need massive numbers of tanks WITH an active protection system (APS)
3/4 Image
Read 5 tweets
Feb 17
To give you an idea how irresponsible German politicians gutted the German Army, here is a list of its brigades in 1990 and when they were disbanded:

• Panzergrenadierbrigade 1 ❌ 2007
• Panzerbrigade 2 ❌ 1993
• Panzerbrigade 3 ❌ 1994
• Panzergrenadierbrigade 4 ❌ 1993
1/8
• Panzergrenadierbrigade 5 ❌ 1996
• Panzerbrigade 6 ❌ 1993
• Panzergrenadierbrigade 7 ❌ 2004
• Panzerbrigade 8 ❌ 1993
• 🇩🇪 Panzerlehrbrigade 9
• Panzergrenadierbrigade 10 ❌ 1993
• Panzergrenadierbrigade 11 ❌ 1993
• 🇩🇪 Panzerbrigade 12
2/n
• Panzergrenadierbrigade 13 ❌ 1994
• Panzerbrigade 14 ❌ 2008
• Panzerbrigade 15 ❌ 1993
• Panzergrenadierbrigade 16 ❌ 1994
• Panzergrenadierbrigade 17 ❌ 1993
• Panzerbrigade 18 ❌ 2008
• Panzergrenadierbrigade 19 ❌ 2002
• Panzerbrigade 20 ❌ 1992
3/n
Read 8 tweets
Feb 15
🇮🇹 Italy will become the highest defence spender in Europe if 🇪🇺 President Ursula von der Leyen manages to activate the EU's escape clause for defence investment.

You see, Italy produces almost everything (!) what its military wants in Italy - even all of the Italian F-35.
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Italian Prime Minister @GiorgiaMeloni has said for years that only countries with a robust AND a ready military will sit at the table, while everyone else will be on the menu.
So she chose defence industry manager @GuidoCrosetto as her defence minister. But the European rule
2/n Image
that Eurozone member must keep their budget deficit below 3% blocked Meloni's desire to put Europe's biggest navy into the water and the biggest air force in the air... so far.
If the 3% rule falls Meloni can finally spend billions on the military, which will also be a
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Read 19 tweets
Feb 12
This is a map of Canada... and if you read this thread the circles will make sense.

Canada is lies on 3 oceans:
• Atlantic Ocean to the East
• Pacific Ocean to the West
• Arctic Ocean to the North

Canada should be able to patrol and defend all of them... but it can't.
1/23 Image
Canada's fighters are based at CFB Cold Lake and CFB Bagotville. The two circles show the combat range of Canada's current and future fighter with an air-to-air weapons load:

• red: CF-18 Hornet with three external drop tanks.
• orange: F-35A with internal fuel only.
2/n Image
As fighters based at CFB Cold Lake and CFB Bagotville can not defend Canada's Arctic Archipelago, Canada built four Forward Operating Locations (FOL) in the late 1980s:
• FOL Inuvik
• FOL Yellowknife
• FOL Rankin Inlet
• FOL Iqaluit

Each FOL can support up to 6 fighters,
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Read 23 tweets
Feb 12
Immediately after becoming Prime Minister of Italy Benito Mussolini made his close ally Emilio De Bono the Chief of Police.
De Bono then turned police in a tool of fascist oppression and ordered the murder of dissidents.
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Immediately after becoming Chancellor of Germany Adolf Hitler made his close ally Hermann Göring the Chief of Prussia's Police.
Göring then turned police in a tool of fascist oppression, created the Gestapo and ordered the murder of dissidents.
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Immediately after becoming Prime Minister of russia Vladimir Putin made his close ally Nikolai Patrushev the head of the Federal Security Service.
Patrushev then turned police in a tool of regime oppression and ordered the murder of dissidents.
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Read 4 tweets

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