Thread by @CasualArtyFan

Can towed artillery still be an asset on the modern battlefield?

Let’s take a look at M777s, the most numerous 155mm system and NATO arty system in Ukraine today.

Ukraine has innovated in many ways to still make them relevant in the face of UAVs.

Here’s a recent video👇

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In the 1st month after their arrival, they were praised for their ease of use & accuracy despite their slow rate of fire.

@ratushnyi_r, a 🇺🇦 activist & soldier, reported that his recce team was constantly getting 1st round effects, the main objective of artillery.

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https://twitter.com/casualartyfan/status/1525117849517363201

During the summer, 🇷🇺 was able to shoot 60k rounds/day, meaning 🇺🇦 was being outshot 20:1

Survivability moves (not shoot & scoot as it’s sometimes called) were required. 🇺🇦 HARMS strikes had not yet degraded 🇷🇺 radar capabilities fully.

Speed was key, & M777s did fine.

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https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1564758619131940867

September brought two major 🇺🇦 counteroffensives, and 🇷🇺 artillery was on the back foot.

M777 crews had more time to set up firing points (FP), safely store ammunition and propellant, and do more time-consuming missions like EXCAL.

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https://twitter.com/casualartyfan/status/1567541951817187330

More time at the FP between moves led some to believe that 🇺🇦 was reckless. However, it was more likely to do with a reduced threat from 🇷🇺 counterfire.

HARMS had probably destroyed many radars and 🇷🇺 was only firing 20k rounds daily at this time (thanks to HIMARS)

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https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1596697127656525824

🇺🇦 M777 crews resembled American ones in a lot of ways at this point, but the lack of camo nets and ammunition/propellant improperly stored could pose a hazard if Russia changed tactics.

Which they soon did…

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https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1599057569997152256

Meet the 🇷🇺 Lancet UCAV. At 3kg+ of HE and a range of 40km, it’s ideal against radars, but has mixed results against armor/vehicles.

In some cases resulting in a flat tire. With less arty ammo available, 🇷🇺 began to use these more instead of arty.

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https://twitter.com/SignMyRocket/status/1597571842759614465

However, it was soon discovered seemingly by accident that Lancets had difficulty penetrating camo nets used by 🇺🇦 tanks to shoot indirect fire.

(Again, not good against armor)

🇺🇦 quickly passed these lessons learned to their M777 crews which were more vulnerable.

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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1606460712796229632

Within a week, metal fences/screens were being incorporated into camouflaging nets to provide protection against Lancets.

While this meant M777s would be less mobile, it meant they would be protected from their current threat.

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https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1608736172251189249

Using an Orlan-10 for observation and 1-3 Lancets for strikes, the costs of NOT putting up nets was/is high.

The more M777s displaced to new positions, the easier they were to find. 🇷🇺 UAV constantly scan roads behind 🇺🇦 lines.

This is the paradox of survivability moves.

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https://twitter.com/gloooud/status/1618151892122767361

Unsurprisingly, more & more 🇺🇦 artillery units (in this case a 🇵🇱 Krab) decided to incorporate these into their FPs even if they were highly-mobile SPGs.

This could show that the threat from loitering munitions has outgrown the threat from 🇷🇺 artillery, at least currently

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https://twitter.com/osintua/status/1617152860940107776

However, staying static isn’t without risk.

Complacency, improper storage, and fuzing rounds before missions start can cause catastrophic results, as seen here.

Propellant (the tubes strewn across the FP) completely lost and fuzed projectiles burned/damaged.

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Lastly, what lessons should 🇺🇸 artillery take away? The start of answer is already in doctrine. All 🇺🇸 arty systems already have checklists with nets for use against detection/observation.

If reinforcing them with metal can help stop small drones, it should be considered.

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Military innovation, leadership, and planning is all about understanding, analyzing, and mitigating risk. With every benefit comes a potential danger.

Ukraine has shown great skill when it comes to balancing risk. We should all dig deeper to better understand how.

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Final Roll-Up:

-152+ M777 delivered

-35 damaged/destroyed

-9 months of use, 1 of the 1st NATO arty systems in 🇺🇦

-Barrels firing up to 7k rounds before replacement, 4k more than expected

-A key weapon system for Ukraine that’s made a huge difference on every front

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Thanks to @noclador @John_A_Ridge @SpencerGuard @JaysonGeroux @ColbyBadhwar @ratushnyi_r (KIA, Izyum) @general_ben @LiamSCollins @doctrinatrix_C2 @oryxspioenkop @Rebel44CZ @osint_east @Osinttechnical

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