Kupyansk-Siversk
The AFU repulsed an attack in the area of Bilogorivka. Continued silence from the north, so not much info to provide. UA general staff are reporting the RU forces are focusing on defense, which might mean the AFU are offensive.
Bakhmut N
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Rozdolivka, Krasna Hora and Bakhmut. RuAF are most likely doing incremental gains in this area, but I have not seen any visual evidence.
Bakhmut S
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Druzhba. The actual status around Klishchiivka is still unknown, there has been no evidence of RU progress beyond the village.
Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Vodyane, Maryinka and Pobyeda. No significant change here in weeks. I assess the control of Maryinka to be about 50/50 despite Wargonzo claims of RuAF controlling 85%
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Vugledar and Prechistivka. All visual evidence indicate RuAF have failed to reach the city and hare suffering huge losses. The reports I get form trusted sources tell the same story.
Russian success is usually just their tanks burning and them not advancing at all.
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility.
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances.
A lot of people are asking what we see in this image.
The two orange circles show where the impacts were, 3 holes at each circle making it 6 in total. There is no other visible damage.
Image from @michaelh992