Thread by @MarkGaleotti

#Prigozhin of Wagner (in)fame and Girkin of #Strelkov nom de guerre, are at dagger’s drawn now, a feud beginning to seep into the media. A few observations 1/

Girkin has emerged as an unexpectedly trenchant critic of the conduct of the war (and even an occasional satirist). So long as he was slamming ‘Plywood Marshal’ Shoigu, Gerasimov and ‘Our Unique Strategic Advantage’ Putin, all was fine 2/
spectator.co.uk/article/putins…

He has, after all, a degree of protection because he does channel the views of a substantial fraction of the security apparatus, and the Kremlin appears to accept it’s safer to let him grumble than make him a martyr 3/
buzzsprout.com/1026985/109337…

However, once he also turned his fire on Prigozhin, all bets were off. Some construe this as a political gambit, a struggle for authority in the nationalist community, but honestly I think it’s much simpler 4/

For a ‘romantic militarist’ like Girkin, thuggish ex-con and profiteer Prigozhin is simply offensive, as is his use of Wagner, hammering away at militarily-useless Bakhmut simply for the same of a trophy victory, regardless of the casualties 5/

Prigozhin is not a man to turn the other cheek, though, prizing his vendettas. He claimed (wrongly) Girkin had attacked the actual Wagner fighters and scornfully invited him to join Wagner to show he was a real man. Even then, he said he’d have to start at the bottom. 6/

Girkin at first affected to consider this, but as the vitriol increased, changed his mind. This was probably wise, as Wagner fighters were duly queueing up on social media to threaten him 7/

One, with the callsign Lotus, called him “the last coward and scoundrel” and warned that if he did turn up on the front line, he’d face a “lot of trouble… at least the handle of an entrenching tool in (in a place it does not belong).” 8/

Dmitry Rogozin, the blowhard nationalist recently removed in disgrace from (mis)managing Roscosmos also joined in, telling him to “show that you are a man” and questioning his courage in the Bosnian war 92-93 (implying he'd been there too) 9/
rferl.org/a/kremlin-dism…

Now, Strelkov’s role in Bosnia is pretty much beyond doubt, but Rogozin’s efforts to pretend he was there too look pretty iffy. However, it all fits a pattern of second-tier and possibly-out-of-favour officials trying to win Prigozhin’s favour. 10/
opendemocracy.net/en/can-europe-…

Finally, the nationalist tabloid Moskovskii Komsomolets ran a thoroughly one-sided piece, ‘Prigozhin destroyed Strelkov with one sentence’ 11/
mk.ru/politics/2023/…

What’s interesting in my opinion is the way that there is something of a cult of Prigozhin emerging, with him and Wagner seen by some as great precisely because they observe no rules and do what must be done. 12/

This doesn’t, I think, mean we should take him too seriously, let alone regard him as the next defence minister/president/usurper, as some in the media do. Ironically, the opposite is true: it’s safe to lionise him precisely because he is no such threat. 13/

Conversely, the ‘patriotic anti-Putinists’ whom Girkin channels are potentially a real challenge. Prigozhin is enough of an outsider that he could be crushed or removed at any time. They are insiders, the very people who would do any crushing 14/

Such spats are not crucial in themselves, but they are symptomatic of a system in growing crisis, not least as Putin is not playing his role as arbiter, and a crisis within the very people – spooks and thuggish opportunists – usually most loyal to and necessary for the regime 15/

Strange alliances are forming. Will we see Girkin back in favour with the MOD (and vice versa)? Who will next woo Prigozhin as a desperate gambit to regain some relevance? Where will that tragic weathervane Medvedev point? Watch this space. 16/end