A detailed look at last wk's auction market process for #ES_F

First, a summary:

• On ave, there were 2 balance areas per day, each averaging 12.25 points in breadth.
• During RTH, the market spent, on ave, 52% of its time rotating between auction bracket highs and lows. Image
2/

• When sellers were in control, down-auctions saw moves that were nearly twice the range of up-auctions (rallies).
• On average, balance areas consumed 52% of the day’s maximum range.
• On average, the market spent 47% of its time rotating between auction bracket highs...
3/

and lows before breaking out of balance to seek new valuations.

(Data for individual days is annotated adjacent to the Market Profile graphics in the first frame, above.)

What does all this mean? And what is notable here?

First, the market spends about half of its time
4/

seeking "balance" ... essentially going nowhere, except on trend days (~15%).

Were one to trade those rotation periods ... perfectly timing bracket highs and bracket lows (known as "responsive" trading) ... they would provide, on average 12 points. (Decent opportunities.)
5/

When the price discovery process broke out of balance, upside "initiatives" averaged ~8 pts; downside excursions went ~16 pts. This is pretty typical.

While most traders have a long bias, short selling generally produces higher gains and pays off in shorter time-frames.

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More from @stephenharlinmd

Jan 25
Again, I screenshot a trade I took this AM. This one was a long. And the entry setup and exit condition is labeled. Follow the numbers.

1) Cum Volume Delta is positive and up-sloping = aggressive buyers exceed aggressive sellers.

2) A CVD divergence suggests accumulation.
(The divergence = price declining as CVD rising.)

3) Very high liquidity limit buy orders = strong support for an up-auction.
4) After putting in a low, the market pulls back ... and we see a higher low (bullish).
5) The distance to VWAP = the trade's reward potential.
• The trade progresses to the upside with high liquidity limit buy orders moving along with price.
• While you could have sat through some chop at VWAP and made a bundle more, I took profits just shy of VWAP (safe). (With multiple contracts, you could scale out for more $$.)
Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
1/
@BozheenaC makes a good point. So let's look at this for a moment.

The formula for GEX is below ... a little different than my back of the napkin estimate of outsized dealer GEX, using publicly available information for 0DTE.

In addition, there are *multiple models* ... Image
2/

studied, aiming to estimate market makers’ delta-hedge rebalancing practices. (Support Vector Machines, neural networks, etc.)

Arguments surrounding the inability of GEX to predict MMs need to rebalance. For example, GEX assumes that all put options are sold by MMs ...
3/

which is not the case. GEX assumes that all market participants hedge their deltas. (Not.) GEX assumes MMS trade to maintain a narrow range portfolio delta regardless of transaction costs which is unrealistic. GEX calculates an aggregate sum for each strike price which...
Read 4 tweets
Jan 14
A cursory look at the complex topic of CTA performance...
1/n

@Critttr made some comments that I want to highlight because I think there’s some really good educational content in his comment and his reference.

2/

In Critter’s reference piece, (“for marketing purposes”), Quantica Capital (QC) analyzes the portfolio diversification benefits of trend-following. QC chose the SG Trend Index as a benchmark for CTA performance and the Sharpe ratio as a measure of risk-adjusted returns.
3/

The performance of the SG Trend Index can be found here:
cmegroup.com/education/file…

A good comparison of CTA indexes can be found here:
cmegroup.com/education/file…

QC finds that CTAs are good portfolio diversifiers.

No argument there.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 10
The volatility prediction for SPX tomorrow ... using the Asymmetric Power Multiplicative Error Model (APMEM) is +0.98%.
1/ @firstlawofvol

First, I believe 5% is more commonly used as a threshold ... looking at the house advantage vs trader's edge. (Of note: in a normal distribution, the probability of doing better than 1 StDev is only 0.1587. [The Handbook of Portfolio Mathematics, Ralph Vince])
2/

@bennpeifert nicely addressed this subject in his recent interview with @choffstein .



I understood, among the various approaches Benn discussed, that he favored considering edge in the context of probabilities.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 8
1/4
Heads Up: Strongly Recommended Podcast

Last week, Corey Hoffstein @choffstein of "Flirting With Models" replayed his interview with Benn Eifert @bennpeifert.

As always, Corey asks the questions that you and I would love to be able to ask someone as well informed as Benn.
2/4

And Benn delivers ... explains stuff like negatively asymmetric risk, the VIX as the price of 1-month variance swap, different approaches to estimating variance risk premium, tail risk, and options valuations based on probabilities. Sounds intimidating, right ...
3/4

but Benn gives answers that are crystal clear, coherent and... most of all, easy to understand. There is so much to be learned in this 18-minute podcast.

Honestly, because time is precious, I can only listen to 1 podcast (=Corey's) and this one, with @bennpeifert, is a GEM.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 29, 2022
1/3

Trading is hard work. Trying to guess which way a market will go tomorrow or next week won't get you very far.

So let's start with goal setting. How much would you have to make each day to take home $100,000? Math below.

It's about $500/day - booked - not paper gains.
2/3

Now consider capital efficiency. You won't get there buying expensive stocks/indices. So if you want to watch your $500 come in each day, you've got to work each day and book those profits. No duh.

You need a little leverage (not too much) ... a little convexity ... and
3/3

... a little luck.

One way: repeat *one way* to do this is to trade basic options, going with the flow ... keeping position size on the low side.

I've shared this study before. Copying it will help you understand it. Dupe and change calls to puts (for bad hair days).
Read 4 tweets

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