Kreminna-Svatove
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Yampolivka, Dibrova, Bilohorivka and Verkhn'okam'yanka. RuAF seems to be stepping up activity in the Kreminna area.
The RU attack around Dibrova was probably done by the 76th GAAD, and it seems like RuAF are using the VDV and Naval Infantry more and more for offensive actions lately.
Bakhmut
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Verkhn'okam'yans'ke, Rozdolivka, Silj, Blahodatne, Paraskoviivka and Bakhmut. RuAF are making small gains and they managed to captured Blahodatne this morning. AFU most likely fell back to the fortified h-ground west of Blahodatne.
Bakhmut S
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Ivanivske and Klishchiivka. This area is still unclear to me and I do not know if the AFU has lost the high ground around Klishchiivka.
Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Vodyane, Maryinka, Pobieda and Novomykhailivka. I have made no changes in this area in weeks.
Vuhledar
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Vuhledar. The RU 155th Naval infantry brigade once again got their asses kicked in this area. They managed to advance almost up to the road by Vuhledar but got pushed back to the southern dachas again.
From what I can see, the attack seems badly planned and the Russians attacked without proper pre firing by artillery again, it is however possible they wanted to surprise the AFU.
AFU have favorable positions in Vuhledar, they have high ground with high rises made out of concrete with a good view of the areas RuAF need to attack from.
Image 1 is a view of Vuhledar from the south
Image 2 is a view of Pavlivka from the same location
Ukrainian forces destroyed a train bridge between Melitopol and Tokmak. The extent of the structural damage is unclear.
Green = Railway
Red = Truck GLOC
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility.
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances.
A lot of people are asking what we see in this image.
The two orange circles show where the impacts were, 3 holes at each circle making it 6 in total. There is no other visible damage.
Image from @michaelh992