Thread by @minna_alander

What does it mean to be a smaller neighbour of Russia ?

Some insights from a 🇫🇮 perspective: That there’s no equality in the relationship. Even if peaceful neighbourly relations are a vital interest for you, for Russia it’s nice to have at best & irrelevant in the big picture

Although your own security outlook depends on Russia’s behaviour as a neighbour, you don’t have much of an impact on it. As much as Finland and Norway invested in good relations with Russia, when it fits whatever bigger game Russia thinks it’s playing, under the bus 🇫🇮&🇳🇴 go

Essentially, what Russia wants to believe it’s up against are the US, the EU and to some extent NATO (of which it has a weirdly, and even kind of flatteringly, exaggerated and quite unrealistic interpretation that fits the alleged threat perception).

Even the larger European countries are individually probably more either useful or a nuisance, depending on Russia’s access to power & money in them.

Germany saw what happened when it tried to change Russia through trade: it got played & 🇷🇺 used the leverage against 🇩🇪

Chances are that Russia might use established cooperation formats against the countries involved. As long as Russia understands security as a zero-sum game, trust-based win-win cooperation is not possible.

This development has been evident in the Arctic & Baltic Sea region

Something like the full-scale invasion of Ukraine (which isn’t even a small country !) is not just temporary madness but the peak of a longer-term development with many precedents (Georgia 2008 & Crimea 2014 + the frozen conflicts in the South Caucasus & Moldova)

Clinging to the hope that the problem will solve itself if only Putin is gone, is a dangerous illusion. Things may well get worse before they get any better in Russia.

Even countries like France & Germany shouldn’t entertain ideas that they can significantly influence Russia.

For Russia’s small neighbours, the main lesson from Russia’s war against Ukraine is that any amount of good faith on our part was probably a wasted effort and it’s essential to make sure Russia understands clearly where our borders are, and that they’re not to be crossed.