Thread by @DownToBlack

#BlueJays ⚾️🧵focusing on one of the league's most underrated young hitters: Alejandro Kirk

Included Below: An approach followed by many Jays; historical comps; a late-season slump (but how bad was it); and what I'd like to see just a bit more of in 2023...

Let's start here: The underrated aspect to Kirk's hitting.
It's a rare combo to not strike out much, walk a lot & be a good hitter.

Kirk is one of just 5 hitters to rank in the 85th percentile or better in K-rate, walk-rate & xwOBA (really just a measure of hitting quality).

Over the last 20 yrs, Joe Mauer, Sal Perez & Brian McCann are the only catchers with more WAR thru their age-23 season. And look at the list below of catchers with OPS+ > 120 thru age-23.

I'm not sure any of us have appreciated just how good & refined a hitter Kirk (already) is.

How does Kirk do it?

He's really quiet & calm at the plate, uses just a little toe tap, has a really flat bat path thru the zone & like so many Jays hitters, stays *inside* the baseball, looking to hit the ball up the middle & into the opposite field gap.

Kirk had 63 walks & just 58 Ks last year.

The last hitters in their age-25 season or younger to have 60+ walks & fewer than 60 K?

D. Pedroia (2009)
J. Mauer (2006, '08)
A. Pujols (2004)

Are those guys good?

I actually see some similarities between Kirk & Pedroia. Seriously!

Two guys who weren't very tall, but loved pitches at the top of the zone, and I think they got to those pitches in very similar ways, getting their lower half real low, and then using that flat bat path thru the zone.

Like, this screen grab below is a thing of beauty.

Let's talk about Kirk's 2022.

An all-star season highlighted by 2 real hot months in May & June, including one 28-game stretch where he was the toughest hitter to get out in baseball:

May 24-Jun 28: .400 avg, .491 on-base (1st in MLB), 1.249 OPS, 9 HR, 24 RBI, 11 K, 14 BB.

One of the things I found most interesting about Kirk's hot stretch is that it *didn't* coincide with him doing the things he does well... really well (does that make sense?)

Chased more & whiffed more in May/June.

I actually think he dialed up the aggression!

What happened towards the end of the year? The narrative is that he *really* struggled & ran out of gas.

The numbers? .345 On-Base from Aug 1 onwards, 60th in MLB & 4th on the Jays (better than Chapman, Teoscar, Guerrero, Merrifield, etc...)

But he def didn't have the same pop:

Clips above almost all inner half pitches hit into the ground and/or jammed.

From April to July, Kirk had a pull rate of 37% (53% on inside pitches)... that dropped to 25% (37% on inside pitches) from August onwards.

Is that too much of an all-field approach? Losing bat speed?

One thing we know: This is a common area pitchers try to exploit with many Jays RHB.

Below is (the bottom of a) leaderboard of RHB Run Value vs inside fastballs.

There's a lot of Jays on there! I think that's a byproduct of the "let-it-travel" approach.

So I think pitchers started attacking him under his hands a bit late in the year, and I also think they started working him *down* in the zone more consistently (as you can see below).

I think that flat bat path is great for belt high pitches, but more challenging elsewhere.

Consider this September example:

1st game in Baltimore. Division rival, O's season on the brink, you know the advance scout was detailed in the O's clubhouse.

Kirk was pitched lower in this game than almost any other game this season.

Almost nothing above the belt.

Or consider the postseason, where Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray & the M's really challenged Kirk inside a lot. Dared him to pull the ball.

(watch the catcher's reaction on the one pitch. Castillo didn't miss in. that was exactly where the M's wanted that pitch)

What I really wished I had? A full season's worth of bat speed data & some info on where Kirk was making contact with the baseball (was it getting too deep on him late in year?)

But I do think the *struggles* were a bit overblown. He's an incredibly smart hitter for his age!

Take a bit of time and dive into the Swing Rate chart above.

Left: all MLB RHB
Right: Kirk

I see a hitter who knows his swing so well & knows its limitations.

Consider this: on any pitch more than 6 inches away from middle of plate, Kirk's swing rate is 2nd lowest in MLB.

What I'd like to see more of in '23: In the right moments (1st pitch, 2-0, 3-0, etc), open it up, get the bat head out & pull the ball!

Kirk is such a gifted hitter, if he's willing to sacrifice just a bit of that elite contact/discipline, the production could get even better!