One of the early clues we have on which Republicans are likely to actually run are those that have visited the early states in recent months. Based on my research, you can see that Pompeo, Pence, Scott, and Haley have hit all four.
This is from a new tracker I'm designing that will track GOP candidates across 8 indicators that collectively give a strong indication of who is at least seriously preparing to run.
DeSantis is in his own silo. He's both actively preparing to run by building a massive fundraising apparatus while trying to look like he's not making moves at the same time. I'd say odds are quite high he runs.
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We have Elissa Slotkin as the frontrunner for the D Senate nomination in MI Senate Forecast. On paper, she is a strong recruit.
- One of the best fundraisers in the party
- Worked on Nat. Sec. for both Obama & Bush
- Outperforms her party within her district in past cycles
The GOP side is a lot less clear. If the GOP elects a candidates without any experience of running for office, then in a general election Slotkin's chances would rise to 81%. If they nominate a fellow U.S. Congressman, then she has a 61% chance.
I think in that situation my forecast would be somewhat underrating Dems chances, because it's highly likely Slotkin will outraise her opponent, and that would keep her chances above 65%.
I know a lot of folks here don't want to hear it - but Ryan is right. Trump could win again. And anyone that doesn't want that to happen would be wise to take his candidacy very seriously.
The two most potent biases I see in politics are: 1. People underrate the chances of an event that they desperately don't want to see happen. 2. People overate the predictive value of the last big event - in this case the 2022 election.
There are valid reasons to be bearish on his candidacy. He lost in 2020. Candidates like him did poorly in 2022. He tried to overturn an election - and that's going to permanently turn off some swing voters that may have supported him.
Major Update in Kentucky - Gov. Andy Beshear has broken ahead as the clear favorite after our first head-to-head polling shows him far ahead of the competition. The race has shifted from Tossup to Lean D at RacetotheWH 🧵
Andy Beshear leads AG Daniel Cameron by 9% in the Mason-Dixon poll released today. Beshear is up 15%+ against the rest of the field.
Our first clue that Beshear was the favorite was his exceptional approval rating. He's consistently earned at least 60% support, marking Beshear as one of the most popular governors in the country. That includes over 40% of Republicans.
At long last, I've given the 2024 Democratic Primary Poll average the major upgrade it deserves. It's now crisp and shows how the race looks in every state - including if Biden surprises us and doesn't run again. racetothewh.com/2024/dem
Here are the national numbers if President Biden runs again, which I think is likely.
You'll notice this inherently includes some unlikely scenarios. Do I think Buttigieg, Harris, and Sanders team up against Biden? No. But I go where the pollsters lead here.
Today, I launched a total redesign of the 2024 GOP Primary Polling Average at RacetotheWH. It's designed to be clear, interactive, and easy to use!
Link - > racetothewh.com/2024/rep
Now, you can track the latest polls in every state. There are three main categories
- Polls with all candidates
- Polling if Trump drops out
- Head to Head polling (Like Trump v. DeSantis)
Our trend lines show how the race has changed - month to month - since March of 2021. That includes the steady rise of DeSantis, and the dramatic shift after the midterms.
How are DeSantis and Trump doing with different groups in the GOP? I built a demographic polling average to find out, and I found that education is the most important divide in the GOP.
Head to Head Polling:
High School Degree or Less: Trump leads 55% to 38%
Some College: DeSantis leads 49% to 44%
4 Year Degree: DeSantis leads 60% to 32%
Masters Degree or More: DeSantis leads 69% to 20%