China has been promoting its Europe and Australia experts to its foreign affairs top ranks since #20thPC, seeking to aver Europe's Indo-Pacific tilt.
It's clear Europe & Australia are gonna be at the center of Chinese diplomacy. And Taiwan is responding. /1🧵
Personnel appts alone tell you a lot. China's new foreign minister, Qin Gang, served in China's embassy to the UK, and was Deputy FM responsible for Europe (2019-21) -- i.e. when EU-China relations was still good (CAI anyone?), and before EU's Indo-Pacific Strategy. /2
China's first deputy foreign minister Ma Zhaoxu was China's permanent representative to the UN in Geneva (2016-18), and China's ambassador to Australia (2013-16) -- i.e. when 🇦🇺🇨🇳relations was still good (even signed AUS-China FTA in 2015). /3
Today Taiwan responds by covering its bases on EU & Aus in its cabinet reshuffle.
For Europe, Taiwan appoints Tsai Ming-Yen, its recent Representative to EU (2020-22) as TW's new intelligence chief, i.e. National Security Bureau director. /4
Here's an extended interview on BBC Hardtalk in April 2022, when Tsai Ming-Yen went over the Ukraine War's lessons for Taiwan and Taiwan's approach towards Europe and China. /5
For Australia, Taiwan appoints Roy Chun Li as its new Deputy Foreign Minister.
Li is an @ANUCrawford alumnus and a WTO expert, who will likely capitalize on his Australian know-how and push forward AUS-TW trade talks on a bilateral FTA and CPTPP membership. @ANUmedia. /6
In short, China is promoting Europe and AUS hands who once successfully negotiated major trade deals (CAI in 2020; 🇦🇺🇨🇳FTA in 2015), hoping they can recreate their magic & restore China's relations with them.
Taiwan is consciously playing defense thru its new cabinet line-up. /7
As US-China strategic competition becomes entrenched, the great diplomatic game's main battlefield shifts.
China seems to find repairing relations with the US' core allies & partners in Europe & Australia -- thereby diminishing US' 'position of strength' -- a renewed priority./8
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Taiwan unveils its new cabinet line-up today. One take-away is President Tsai Ing-Wen is holding firm to her China policy, undaunted by recent election losses. 'coz the 3 main relevant ministers are all staying on (MOFA, Defense, Mainland Affairs).
If we're splitting hairs... /1
we may even say Prez Tsai appears to be picking up pace to prep VP Lai Ching-Te's China staffers, so that if Lai can win and succeed her as president in 2024, Lai's China policy will be consistent with Tsai's. /2
That's a sign of Tsai: 1) protecting her legacy; but also 2) helping minimize policy turbulence during their power transition (and avoid confusing TW's international friends).
One sign is the new personnel changes in the mainland affairs portfolio. But it's a long story... /3
Taiwanese art school student put up a revealing photo of himself on a village billboard as part of a social experiment.
Passersby complained of public indecency, only to become ok with it once they learned it's a male in the photo. /1
2/ When asked, the artist Wu Zongdai (吳宗岱) questioned the boundary between 'public' and 'private' spheres. He noted naked female bodies are 'unacceptable' and 'triggering' in public, but they are 'works of art' when placed in museums & art galleries. -- How public is 'public'?
3/ His inspiration for this experiment comes from social media. Wu once uploaded a topless photo of himself onto Facebook. Because of his appearance, FB's algorithm deemed it to be a topless female and deleted the photo for its 'indecent exposure'.
First Hong Kong, then Taiwan, & now personnel portfolio.
On January 17th, supposedly outgoing CCP Organization Dept Director Chen Xi keynoted at National Organ. Dept directors conference. He is a retirement aged (69), non-CC member.
2/ Main thing in common btw these 3 portfolios: their precedent-breaking bosses all have connections with Xi Jinping from way back.
- Hong Kong office director was Xi's deputy during Xi's Zhejiang era (2004-2007)
- Taiwan: Fujian era (1980s)
- Org dept: Xi's student era (1970s)
3/ If this conjecture is correct, then Chen Xi will continue on as Organization director, and Li Ganjie 李干杰 will take over as Central Office director and round out the CCP Central Secretariat.
China's wolf warrior prototype gets defanged? Zhao Lijian gets moved from MFA spokesperson to 1st Deputy Director of MFA's Dept of Boundary and Ocean Affairs.
The department is mainly responsible for negotiating border agreements and joint maritime exploration (e.g. China-India Himalayan border dispute + China-Japan underwater gas exploration near Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, etc).
i.e. No low-hanging fruits there. /2
This dept is not a place to fast-track someone's career.
It has 5 directors so far -- all of whom see their careers end at ambassador/director level (正司局級). (Though current director, 53 y.o. Hong Yang is still young-ish & may become a potential exception down the road). /3
China's Amb to US, Qin Gang, became China's new Foreign Minister on Dec 30.
On China-Russia cooperation, he once said on March 20: "there is no restricted area, but we have baselines also." ie,nothing is out of bounds, but not everything goes either - with emphasis on the latter
This is a precedent-breaking move --usually, ministers inc FM r appointed during the two sessions in March 2023.
That they did it on Dec 30, signals they want to add another year as FM onto his CV to strengthen his otherwise relatively junior credentials (compared with past FMs)
That means Qin is not going to be a transitional one-term figure. Rather, they are grooming Qin for a long tenure ahead.
Qin is young -- he is only 56 y.o., meaning he is eligible to serve at least another 15 years 'til 2037 (if not beyond).