Why did Xi Jinping mention "Four red lines" during the Xi-Biden summit in Peru, and what ends does it serve?

Four red lines is largely a encapsulation of China's consistent discourse on its 'core interests'.

What's interesting is the remarkable omission of 1 core interest.🧵/1 namely, it does mention China's presence in South China Sea as core interest

This omission suggests China is trying to play nice to win over Southeast Asia, at a time when SE Asia is anxiously questioning the incoming Trump administration's continued commitment to the region. /2

China's Beijing Youth Daily just published 3 straight editorials criticizing a new trend: people playing card-games.

The govt-affiliated newspaper says hangout over card-games fosters:
1. a unproductive 'lie flat' mindset, and
2. a "stan culture" which is gateway to cronyism./1 The newspaper notes the leadership hates such cliquey "stan culture" (搞小山頭、小圈子、小團夥),

'cpz it's how people build networks & factions within the party.

That leads to unscientific hiring, and bad policy performance happens when people promote their card-game buddies./2

China's Third Plenum concludes:

1. Ex-Defense Minister Li Shang-fu is heading to the dog house. He's fired from CC.

2. Ex-Foreign Minister Qin Gang gets a milder punishment. He's allowed to "#resign" from CC -- being closer to Xi has its perks.

Some thoughts... /1🧵 Why did Qin Gang get a milder punishment than Li Shangfu?

All the rumors aside, objectively we know Qin Gang was promoted at virtually unprecedented speed -- he jumped 2 layers in 3 months (from Vice Minister to Vice National-level).

Presumably that arrangement could only... /2

Here it comes. Taiwan's ex-President Ma Ying-jeou this morning calls on Taiwan's president-elect Lai Ching-te to:

1. obey ROC constitution & "One China framework"
2. reaffirm 2 sides of TW Strait are not two countries
3. ditch Taiwan independence
4. return to 92 'Consensus'. /1 5. pursue cross-strait exchanges with equality & dignity.

Ma added that his meeting with Xi meant Xi Jinping extending an olive branch towards Taiwan. And he hopes Taiwan's next leader Lai will "reciprocate" pragmatically. /2

China has just appointed a new Defense Minister at Friday 6:40pm -- Navy Admiral Dong Jun, 62.

Quick thoughts on possible significance for China's strategic focus, personnel tradition, and military's anti-corruption reshuffling. /1 This is in line with expectation from two new personnel promotions earlier this week -- elevation of Wang Wenquan (王文全) and Hu Zhongming (胡中明) to General on Christmas Day.

Wang is political commissar for PLA's Southern Theater Command, and Hu is PLA Navy commander. /2

Caixin is China's leading commercial press and is rumored to enjoy China's former #6 Wang Qishan's patronage.

Caixin published an editorial on "Revisiting reality-based thinking" on Dec 25 - a day before Mao Zedong's birthdate's 130th anniversary.

It immediately got censored.🧵 The editorial notes 45 years ago, at the end of Cultural Revolution in the late 1970s, the Chinese economy was bordering on collapse, yet Chinese govt at the time still insisted "the trendlines were great, and they were getting better by the day".
(「形勢大好且越來越好」)/2

Taiwan's presidential frontrunner Lai Ching-te will formally announce in a few hours his VP running mate -- Taiwan's representative to the US @bikhim.

A few thoughts on what it means for DPP’s US-China policy, and for DPP’s internal politics. /1🧵 @bikhim Foreign policy signal: Hsiao is widely seen as a President Tsai Ing-Wen’s confidante, and since 2020 she has carried the crown jewel of Tsai’s foreign success – US-Taiwan relations to a tee as Tsai’s representative in DC. /2

"I am already Chinese" -- 'Karl Marx', 2023

Oct 9, China's Hunan TV released new show "When Marx meets Confucius", when 'Marx' made above comment.

Just the day before, China unveils "Xi Jinping thought on culture", and call for integrate Marxism with traditional Chinese culture Confucius and Marx's thoughts are to be organically integrated, per China's doctrine of 'two integrations' (est 2021).

As one think about the relative balance btw local traditions & international thought, it's interesting to see how Confucius is taller than Marx in the poster./2

China's MFA's statement on the Israel-Palestinian conflict:

- expresses deep concern
- urges "all relevant parties" to exercise calm & restraint, and immediately ceasefire.
- two state solution is fundamental way out.

Makes one think about Ukraine & Middle East contexts.🧵 MFA statement:

The statement's slightly stand-offish tone aside, one wonders why China MFA only vaguely identifies "Palestinian armed groups in the Gaza Strip", when most major Western media outlets and US govt already call out Hamas by name? /2fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_6…

Taiwan's #MeToo movement, after 2 full months, finally reaches a legislative milestone today.

This morning TW parliament passed amendments to two laws, 'Gender Equality in Employment Act' and 'Sexual Harassment Prevention Act'.

A few changes that stand out to me.../1

1. Expanded definition of sexual harassment. TW now considers as sexual harassment any sexuality-related:

a) #acts against other people's will,

b) words that discriminate, demean, or intimidate others on sexuality-related grounds, and... /2

China's Qin Gang is out as FM, but the saga continues.

Chances are Wang Yi is a placeholder. And Beijing will appoint someone else to serve for longer term later. Some thoughts /1🧵

reuters.com/world/china/ch… It seems a lot like a temporary arrangement to end further embarrassment. So they don't have to repeatedly task Wang Yi with Foreign Minister duties and getting him to meet foreign counterparts in the interim when he lacks the title as FM. /2

July 16 features Taiwan's first major political rally of the 2024 presidential campaign.

KMT's presidential candidate Hou Youyi made the brave and likely correct decision to show up at that rally on the streets. /1🧵 Two big events on 7/16.

a. The ruling party DPP enjoying air con indoors, mainly saying how things have been awesome during the last 7 years.
b. Others out on the streets saying the exact opposite. /2

https://twitter.com/wentisung/status/1680482067690438658?s=20

China's state media Xinhua finally feels comfortable posting a story about Wagner Group & Russia on the frontpage (long after Prigozhin takes the deal).

It's low-key -- placed at the very bottom right (story #17).

How is China framing it? What lessons does it draw? /1 Short🧵 Xinhua does a 'Hot issue explainer' article named "How did the Wagner incident & related tension quickly get subdued?"

It basically credits Putin's wisdom and Russian society's overwhelming support. /2
news.cn/world/2023-06/…

China's reaction to the Wagner Group's military mutiny against Putin: Chines state media and social media reactions. A short thread.🧵 /1

atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla… Chinese official media seems be underplaying the story.

The Wagner Group military mutiny is nowhere to be found on Xinhua's homepage. One had to go into 'International news' page to find any mention. Likely 'coz the mutiny story is inconvenient. /2

China's President Xi Jinping's alma mater Tsinghua University just released a survey named "China Unfiltered: The Chinese People's View on National Security". (“无滤镜的中国”：中国人的国际安全观调查)

What did the survey find? A thread. /1🧵 Tsinghua University is widely known as one of China's 'Big 2' universities (along with PKU), and is arguably the most politically connected one -- having produced 4 out of the last 6 Presidents and Premiers, including Xi Jinping (pictured in 1975 at his send-off to Tsinghua)./2

Imprecise headline IMO.

Australian FM @SenatorWong is not saying PM Albanese's China visit is #preconditioned on China making progress on lifting trade sanctions & detained Australians. Rather, China doing so would be very #conducive to such a visit. /1

abc.net.au/news/2023-05-2… @SenatorWong In Penny Wong's own carefully chosen words: "I would say that we would want to see continued progress and the most positive circumstances for any visit by the Prime Minister, and I think #China would understand that." /2

My quotes for @CNN, on US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s changing his Taiwan trip into a in-person meeting with #Taiwan’s President @iingwen in California. @CNN @iingwen Tsai’s potential meeting with Kevin McCarthy in California is not necessarily a “replacement or downgrade, but an add-on”, or a bonus.

McCarthy could always visit Taiwan at a later date. 2/

China's Premier Li Keqiang delivers his farewell government work report this morning at the NPC.

Li reveals China's priorities through the way he orders Beijing's Taiwan policy objectives. /1

news.cn/politics/2023l… If Li's speech is any guide, for 2023, Beijing is shooting for incremental progress, rather than quick results, on Taiwan.

Taiwan portion of the speech is pretty short. 134 words. /2

China's cabinet & CCP party issue a new directive that calls for "resolute opposition and boycott of erroneous Western concepts such as 'constitutional rule' and 'separation of powers'".

'Strengthening legal education and theory research in the new era'.
news.cn/politics/zywj/… 2/ This likely forebodes more constitutional reform to come at next week's annual two sessions (China's parliament session).

Specifically it hints at further enshrining of Xi and Xi Jinping thought into the constitution.

#China releases its comprehensive official position paper on #Ukraine today.

It seems like: 1) a very thinly veiled attempt to help Russia achieve an upper hand over Ukraine, though 2) superficially disguised as a call for peace to deflect Western criticism. A short🧵 2/ Paper's Point 2 calls for 'prevent #bloc confrontation"' (防止形成陣營對抗).

What does that mean? It means nobody should help Ukraine. Russia is on its own and has essentially no 'bloc' or other countries overtly helping it. But Ukraine does...

As US alleges China is providing 'non-lethal support' for Russia, China's MFA fires back and blames US for giving weapons to Ukraine.

This is in line with longstanding Chinese view. PSA: Back in Sept 2022, China effectively said that Russia's war against Ukraine is a #JustWar./1 2/ The closest thing to a direct official Chinese judgment of the nature of that war so far (AFAIK) comes from China's #3 leader, National People's Congress Speaker Li Zhanshu.