Thread by @gchikermane

The #EconomicSurvey by CEA V. Anantha Nageswaran tracks past reforms, points out future ones, examines threats & opportunities, contextualises the India story, builds hope amid uncertainties. It looks within & outside, past & future, macroeconomics & policy.
Very useful document!

Real GDP growth to be between 6.0% and 6.8%; inflation rate (CPI-C and WPI) is below 6% and is on the descending slope of the surge that hit the economy in the first half of the current fiscal: #EconomicSurvey

Budgeted government capital expenditure rose 2.7 times in the last seven years. This has crowded-in private investment. Capacity utilisation is up, new manufacturing investment announced in Apr-Dec FY23 is five times higher than in corresponding level in FY20: #EconomicSurvey

Risks to growth: high commodity prices that will raise India’s total import bill; slackening global demand, pressures on the Rupee; hawkish stance on inflation by global central banks and therefore high interest rates: #EconomicSurvey

Upsides to growth: limited health and economic fallout from the current surge in Covid-19 infections in China; normalisation of supply chains; return of capital inflows to India; improvement in animal spirits of private sector investment: #EconomicSurvey

Growth magnets 1: balance sheet repair in financial and corporate sector to help the financial cycle to turn upward; as health and economic shocks of the pandemic and spike in commodity prices wear off, Indian economy well placed to grow in the coming decade: #EconomicSurvey

Growth magnets 2: digitalisation and the resulting efficiency gains in terms of greater formalisation, higher financial inclusion, and more economic opportunities will be the second most important driver of India’s economic growth in the medium term: #EconomicSurvey

Growth magnets 3: evolving geopolitical situation is an opportunity for India to benefit from the diversification of global supply chains. Given the global policy uncertainty, MNCs are exploring strategies to diversify their production bases and supply chains: #EconomicSurvey

Reforms ahead 1: deregulation and simplification of compliances to dismantle the licensing, inspection and compliance regime, particularly for MSMEs: #EconomicSurvey
More in this Feb 22 @orfonline Monograph by @rishiagraw and me: Jailed for Doing Business
orfonline.org/jailed-for-doi…

Reforms ahead 2: state governments to address power sector issues, financial viability of Discoms. Education and skilling to match modern industry requirements, deal with 21st century challenges such as climate change and energy transition: #EconomicSurvey

Reforms ahead 3: asset monetisation of public sector enterprises to reduce public sector debt, through it raise sovereign credit ratings, and lead to lower cost of capital. That will be the biggest fiscal stimulus to the economy: #EconomicSurvey

We are operating in the new normal where global economy is still recovering, and geopolitical conflicts persist. India could steer through the situation owing to its support to infrastructure through increased capex and strong macroeconomic fundamentals: #EconomicSurvey

The international political and economic order has developed faultlines. Multilateral forums face existential challenges and need help to deliver on their mandates. India’s #G20 Presidency is an opportunity for India to bind this fragmented global order: #EconomicSurvey