1. 1986 by Sh. V.P. Singh [Input Credit] 2. 1991 by Dr. Manmohan Singh [Liberalisation] 3. 1997 by Sh. P. Chidambaram [Tax Relief] 4. 2000 by Sh. Yashwant Sinha [Enabled IT Boom] 5. Budget, 2021 by Smt. Nirmala Sitharaman [Infra]
In 2025, the rupee slipped past the historic low of 90 against the dollar.
And this pressure was not limited to the US dollar.
It fell over 19% versus the euro, about 14% versus the pound and over 5% versus the yen.
So why did the rupee fall? Let’s take a closer look🧵
(1/11)
Reason 1: US trade tensions
Following the tariff hikes that began in April and intensified in August 2025, India's exports to the US declined 28.5% over five months.
And a decline in US-bound exports means reduced dollar inflows from one of India's largest export markets.
(2/11)
Reason 2: Widening trade deficit
At the same time, steady import demand for oil and gold kept dollar outflows high.
As a result, India's current account deficit (CAD), the amount by which a country’s imports exceed exports, widened to 1.3% of GDP in Q2 FY26 from 0.3% in Q1.
(3/11)
Part 2: Sector Deep Dive 🧵
India Inc’s Q4FY25 earnings were steady — but the real story lies in the sectoral trends.
From banks to defence, here’s a snapshot of what’s working, what’s lagging, and where the next tailwind might be. 👇
#StocksToWatch
🩷 & 🔄 this insightful thread!
1/13 🏦 Banking & NBFCs
Secured credit demand held firm—driven by MSMEs.
🔸 Volatility in margins due to repo rate cut
🔸 Personal loans, microfinance saw caution
🔸 Asset quality stable in large banks, volatile in mid-sized names
Top Pick: Kotak Mahindra Bank (KOTMAH) — robust asset quality, strong CASA, healthy capital ratios.
2/13 💻 IT Sector
Growth remains muted in Tier-1s due to macro headwinds.
🔸 TCS/Infosys see weak discretionary spend
🔸 Delay in deal closures across BFSI/Retail
🔸 Midcap IT firms outperform on niche digital offerings
Top Pick: Persistent Systems (PERSYS) — strong revenue visibility, digital-led pipeline, efficient cost control.
#Q4FY25 earnings came in better than feared.
At the Nifty level:
- Adj. PAT growth: +3.2% YoY
- Topline (Sales) growth: +7.3% YoY
- Ex-financials PAT growth: a better +7.2% YoY
1/9 Here’s a breakdown of our Q4FY25 review and market outlook. 👇
2/9 Financials dragged, but other sectors held up.
- Ex-IndusInd, financials posted a modest +2.6% PAT growth
- Manufacturing EBITDA margins held steady at 19.1%, with a slight QoQ dip
- #PSUbanks and OMCs outperformed
3/9 Midcaps led the charge
- Midcap earnings: +15.8% YoY
- SmallCaps: +3.8% YoY, broadly tracking largecaps
- Boosted by a turnaround in select agro-chem and PSU banking names
2(a) | Fiscal Deficit Roadmap: A Positive Surprise!
🔸FY25RE fiscal deficit revised down to 4.8% vs 4.9% est.
🔸FY26 target at 4.4%, better than market expectations (~4.5%)
🔸Gross market borrowing hiked to ₹14.8 lakh cr (from ₹14.0 lakh cr in FY25)