1. 1986 by Sh. V.P. Singh [Input Credit] 2. 1991 by Dr. Manmohan Singh [Liberalisation] 3. 1997 by Sh. P. Chidambaram [Tax Relief] 4. 2000 by Sh. Yashwant Sinha [Enabled IT Boom] 5. Budget, 2021 by Smt. Nirmala Sitharaman [Infra]
2(a) | Fiscal Deficit Roadmap: A Positive Surprise!
🔸FY25RE fiscal deficit revised down to 4.8% vs 4.9% est.
🔸FY26 target at 4.4%, better than market expectations (~4.5%)
🔸Gross market borrowing hiked to ₹14.8 lakh cr (from ₹14.0 lakh cr in FY25)
Here is the Market Strategy 2025 by ICICI Direct’s research team! A 🧵.
CY24 was a roller-coaster for domestic equities, with Nifty hitting 26,300 in September before giving up half its gains to close with a 10% return. Mid and small caps outperformed, delivering 25%+ returns.
🔸#Nifty - Fair value pegged at 28,300 (21x PE on FY27E earnings).
🔸#Sensex - Target set at 94,300.
Record primary market activity with ₹3 lakh crore+ raised via IPOs, QIPs, and OFS, reflecting market maturity and depth for foreign investors.
After a modest 7% growth in Nifty earnings for FY25E, we anticipate a return to double-digit growth with a 15% CAGR over FY25-27E, driven by robust GDP growth, declining interest rates, and supportive policies.
(2/n)
🔸Indian households (directly and indirectly) now hold ₹138 lakh crore in equities, marking an impressive increase of ₹80 lakh crore over the past four years, up from ₹58 lakh crore.
The Technical Yearly Outlook 2025 by ICICI Direct’s Research team is here!
🔸In the journey towards #Nifty hitting 50000 by 2030, it has achieved the milestone of 24800 for the CY24.
🔸We expect the index to hit 28800 in CY25, despite volatility in H2CY24.
The positive bias is validated by following observations
#icicidirect
(1/n)
Decadal Theory backs this bias
🔸Since 1979, every decade has delivered 4x returns! CY25 marks the "5th year," historically volatile but lucrative, with median returns in the high teens.
🔸This aligns with our 28800 target.
🔸Projection for the current decade (CY21-30) on the basis of CY20 close (Nifty - 13982) works out to around 55,000.
#nifty #decadaltheory
(2/n)
📈 What do the charts tell us?
#Nifty is projected to continue its northbound journey, supported by the rising channel visible in the monthly chart.
🔸Nifty’s 55-month rally from #COVID lows and #Fibonacci cycles signal a time correction phase nearing completion.
🔸Expect upward momentum towards 28800, with support at 22000.
The weekly chart shows Nifty bouncing off its 52-week EMA, historically a robust entry point.
🔸Buying near the 52-week EMA has yielded median 23% returns over the next 12 months in the past.
🔸Corrections of ~12% provide a favorable risk-reward ratio for investors eyeing the 28800 target.
Under the Income Tax Act, any gift or bonus received from an employer is considered as part of your salary income, hence is taxable. The tax rate applicable on such income will depend on your overall income slab.
Learn more about this in this thread.
🩷 & 🔄 for better reach!
#Diwali #IncomeTax
(1/n)
EXEMPTIONS AVAILABLE
Gifts up to Rs 5,000
#Gifts received from an employer up to a value of Rs 5,000 are exempt from tax.
Gifts from a non-relative
Gifts received from a non-relative, such as a customer or supplier, are generally exempt from #tax, irrespective of their value.
#Diwali #IncomeTax
(2/n)
TIPS TO AVOID #TAX
🔸Claim the exemption up to Rs 5,000, by submitting the necessary documents.
🔸Structure the #gift in a way that it falls within the exempt limit. For example, your employer can give you a gift voucher worth Rs 5,000 and a cash bonus of the remaining amount.
Structural uptrend intact; 27000 in sight by March’25
Our Technical Strategy Report forecasts a Nifty rally to 27,000 by March 2025, backed by strong global markets, solid domestic fund flows, and positive seasonal trends. Bank Nifty is expected to outperform, with mid and small-cap indices also set for gains.
📖Part 1 of this 🧵for deeper insights.
🩷 & 🔄 for better reach!
Stay tuned for Part 2: Sectors in Focus.
Technical Outlook...
🔸#Nifty touched 25078 in August, close to our June target, despite global volatility, while maintaining its structural uptrend.
🔸Our latest report outlines future targets and reaffirms our strategy to buy the dips and ride the #bull market.
🔸Nifty remains on track for our CY30 target of 50000, supported by the decadal cycle projections.
🔸We upgraded our FY25 Nifty #target to 27000, with strong #support at 23400, based on our composite model.
🔸Outlook: We expect a multi-quarter consolidation breakout, leading to a 45% rally over the next 6-7 quarters, with a target of 27000 from the current breakout at 18600 (Jun-23).
🔸BankNifty Resumption: The Bank Nifty/Nifty ratio is bottoming, indicating a likely relative outperformance from the #BFSI sector in the coming months.
🔸Seasonal Trends: September has historically dipped 3% in Nifty 15 out of the last 19 years, followed by an average 7% return over the next 3 months.
🔸Global Setup: In #US election years, markets have rallied. The last five election years saw an average 9% gain in US markets from June to December, with Nifty averaging 20%, barring 2008.
🔸Fund Flows: Domestic inflows are mitigating FII selling impacts. Expected #FIIs returns in H2CY24, alongside potential US rate cuts, will enhance liquidity.
🔸Market Breadth: Strong medium-term breadth signals broad participation in the current bull market, with stabilized volatility.
🔸Midcaps & Smallcaps: Projected to gain 10-12% by year-end in a structural uptrend.