Part 2: Sector Deep Dive 🧵
India Inc’s Q4FY25 earnings were steady — but the real story lies in the sectoral trends.

From banks to defence, here’s a snapshot of what’s working, what’s lagging, and where the next tailwind might be. 👇

#StocksToWatch
🩷 & 🔄 this insightful thread! 1/13 🏦 Banking & NBFCs
Secured credit demand held firm—driven by MSMEs.
🔸 Volatility in margins due to repo rate cut
🔸 Personal loans, microfinance saw caution
🔸 Asset quality stable in large banks, volatile in mid-sized names

Top Pick: Kotak Mahindra Bank (KOTMAH) — robust asset quality, strong CASA, healthy capital ratios.

🧵 Steady earnings. Constructive outlook.

#Q4FY25 earnings came in better than feared.
At the Nifty level:
- Adj. PAT growth: +3.2% YoY
- Topline (Sales) growth: +7.3% YoY
- Ex-financials PAT growth: a better +7.2% YoY

1/9 Here’s a breakdown of our Q4FY25 review and market outlook. 👇 2/9 Financials dragged, but other sectors held up.

- Ex-IndusInd, financials posted a modest +2.6% PAT growth
- Manufacturing EBITDA margins held steady at 19.1%, with a slight QoQ dip
- #PSUbanks and OMCs outperformed

🧵 Gold: After a 35% rally, is it time to pause? Let’s break it down. 👇 1/9 Over the last four months, #GoldPrices have surged 35%.

That’s a massive move - and it has pushed technical indicators like the weekly stochastic oscillator deep into overbought territory.

The big psychological support to watch now?
$3000 an ounce.

Results Update

💊 Natco Pharma Ltd (#NATCOPHARM)

📈 CMP: ₹ 870.45
↕️ 52-Week High/Low: ₹1,639 / ₹848
🎯 Target: ₹ 1,305
⏳Duration: 12 months
⬆️ Potential Upside: +50%

🩷 & 🔄 for better reach!
#StocksToTrade #StocksToWatch
(1/n) 🏥About the Stock

🔸Market Cap: ₹15,921 Cr | EV: ₹16,219 Cr | Debt: ₹369 Cr | Cash: ₹70 Cr

🔸A pharma company known for complex generics with limited competition, especially in the US market.

🔸Strong presence in oncology with 39 brands & growing crop protection business via Natmate & CTPR pesticides.
(2/n)

“Sangam” of Consumption, Fiscal Prudence & Capex

The government is strategically addressing income tax relief, fiscal discipline, and capex allocation. What does this mean for the economy? A 🧵

🩷 & 🔄 this insightful thread!
#UnionBudget2025 #ViksitBharatBudget2025 1 | Balancing the Three Pillars

Govt’s priority order:
🔸 #IncomeTaxRelief to boost consumption 📈
🔸 #Fiscal discipline to contain macro variables 🏦
🔸 #Capex allocation with some moderation ⚖️

Short-term consumption boost = Long-term capex revival!

Nifty expected to cross 28k!

Here is the Market Strategy 2025 by ICICI Direct’s research team! A 🧵.

CY24 was a roller-coaster for domestic equities, with Nifty hitting 26,300 in September before giving up half its gains to close with a 10% return. Mid and small caps outperformed, delivering 25%+ returns.

🔸#Nifty - Fair value pegged at 28,300 (21x PE on FY27E earnings).
🔸#Sensex - Target set at 94,300.

🩷 & 🔄 for better reach!
(1/n) Strong Returns Across Assets

🔸Gold - 19%
🔸Large-cap equities - 10%
🔸Mid/small-cap equities - 25%
🔸Debt - 10%
🔸Real Estate - 15%-20%

Record primary market activity with ₹3 lakh crore+ raised via IPOs, QIPs, and OFS, reflecting market maturity and depth for foreign investors.

After a modest 7% growth in Nifty earnings for FY25E, we anticipate a return to double-digit growth with a 15% CAGR over FY25-27E, driven by robust GDP growth, declining interest rates, and supportive policies.

(2/n)

The target for #Nifty is 27500 as per the Quant Yearly Outlook 2025 by ICICI Direct’s research team! A 🧵 on the analysis.

🩷&🔄for better reach!

(1/n) 🔸#Nifty has consistently found support near mean*1.5 sigma since #COVID, currently around 21,800 - a key level for CY25.

🔸On the upside, mean+3 sigma points to a target of 27,500 for next year.

🎯 Nifty set to hit 28800?

The Technical Yearly Outlook 2025 by ICICI Direct’s Research team is here!

🔸In the journey towards #Nifty hitting 50000 by 2030, it has achieved the milestone of 24800 for the CY24.

🔸We expect the index to hit 28800 in CY25, despite volatility in H2CY24.

The positive bias is validated by following observations

#icicidirect
(1/n) Decadal Theory backs this bias

🔸Since 1979, every decade has delivered 4x returns! CY25 marks the "5th year," historically volatile but lucrative, with median returns in the high teens.

🔸This aligns with our 28800 target.

🔸Projection for the current decade (CY21-30) on the basis of CY20 close (Nifty - 13982) works out to around 55,000.

#nifty #decadaltheory
(2/n)

TAXABILITY OF DIWALI GIFTS AND BONUSES

Under the Income Tax Act, any gift or bonus received from an employer is considered as part of your salary income, hence is taxable. The tax rate applicable on such income will depend on your overall income slab.

Learn more about this in this thread.

🩷 & 🔄 for better reach!

#Diwali #IncomeTax
(1/n) EXEMPTIONS AVAILABLE

Gifts up to Rs 5,000

#Gifts received from an employer up to a value of Rs 5,000 are exempt from tax.

Gifts from a non-relative

Gifts received from a non-relative, such as a customer or supplier, are generally exempt from #tax, irrespective of their value.

#Diwali #IncomeTax
(2/n)

Structural uptrend intact; 27000 in sight by March’25

Our Technical Strategy Report forecasts a Nifty rally to 27,000 by March 2025, backed by strong global markets, solid domestic fund flows, and positive seasonal trends. Bank Nifty is expected to outperform, with mid and small-cap indices also set for gains.

📖Part 1 of this 🧵for deeper insights.

🩷 & 🔄 for better reach!
Stay tuned for Part 2: Sectors in Focus. Technical Outlook...

🔸#Nifty touched 25078 in August, close to our June target, despite global volatility, while maintaining its structural uptrend.

🔸Our latest report outlines future targets and reaffirms our strategy to buy the dips and ride the #bull market.

🔸Nifty remains on track for our CY30 target of 50000, supported by the decadal cycle projections.

🔸We upgraded our FY25 Nifty #target to 27000, with strong #support at 23400, based on our composite model.

"JIO Financial Services : Set to Disrupt the Indian Financial Services Ecosystem”💹

Expanding its product offerings across lending, investments, payments, & insurance space⚡

Key Takeaways from Jio Financial's First Annual Report🧵👇 📌Jio Financial Services Limited

🔸JFSL, as a Core Investment Company (CIC), is a holding company

🔸It will operate its financial services business through its consumer-facing subsidiaries and joint ventures

🔸JFSL is building a customer-first, digital-led, and data & analytics centric financial services organisation

💡“JFSL was built on a substantial net worth of ₹ 1.2 lakh crore and positioned us as one of the world’s highest capitalised financial service platforms at inception.” ~ Mukesh Ambani

Waste Management is crucial due to rising Urban and Industrial waste 💹

With only 30% of 75% recyclable waste being recycled in India, the sector has huge growth potential ♻️

Driven by environmental awareness and regulatory demands, it offers significant opportunities 💰

A detailed thread on key beneficiaries of this trend🧵👇

#wastemanagement
1/n 1️⃣ Gravita India (#GravitaIndia)

📌 Leading in Lead Recycling

🔸 Business Verticals:
Lead, Aluminium, Plastic, Rubber Recycling, Turnkey Solutions

🔸 Expanding Verticals:
Lithium-ion, Steel, Paper Recycling

📊5 Year Sales CAGR: 21%
📊5 Year Profit CAGR: 74%

🔸 Capex Plans:
- ₹600 Cr by FY27
- Capacity expansion to 5,00,000 MTPA

🔸Lithium-ion & Tyre recycling plant by H1FY26
🔸Paper & Steel recycling plants by FY27

...Contd👇

2/n

The #auto industry saw significant activity this week, particularly around #hybridvehicles and pricing strategies. Here's a detailed breakdown of the events - A 🧵 Uttar Pradesh Government's Registration Fee Reduction

🔸The Uttar Pradesh State Government reduced the registration fee for hybrid cars.

🔸Strong hybrids are now treated like electric vehicles (EVs) in terms of registration benefits, leading to zero registration fees for strong hybrids.

🔸This caused a significant drop in the on-road prices of strong hybrids in the state, approximately 10%.

🔸With Uttar Pradesh being the second-largest market for passenger vehicles (PV) in India, accounting for about 10% of total sales, this move is expected to boost the sales of hybrid cars significantly.

💹Indian agrochemical industry at the cusp of a turnaround? A 🧵covering:

🔸Current state of agrochemical industry
🔸Industry growth drivers
🔸Management commentary from US Agrochem MNCs
🔸Global demand boost
🔸How will Indian companies benefit from this?
🔸Companies you should look at
🔸Key risks

1/9 Where does agrochemical industry stand?👨‍🌾

🔸In 2021 and 2022, the agrochemical sales boomed thanks to high chemical prices and steady demand

🔸On top of this, supply-chain disruptions i.e. lower raw material prices, led to higher profitability

🔸However, in 2023, profitability dropped as supply chains normalized & raw material prices increased

🔸China's dumping of cheaper supplies globally worsened the industry's downturn in early 2024

2/9

#Adani family infuses ₹8339 cr in #AmbujaCement!
🔸Promoters have infused a total ₹20,000 cr in the company in three tranches over the last 20 months.
🔸Promoters stake have increased to 70.3% now from 63.2% in Dec-23.

A 🧵 on:
💡Decoding the move
📈 View

🩷 & 🔄 for better reach! 💡Decoding the move

The fund infusion and increase in stake suggests promoters' conviction and focus on cement business.

🔸This would also help Ambuja Cement in meeting its capex requirements through internal accruals.

🔸Company’s balance sheet is already strong with cash & bank balance at ₹8500 crore as of Dec-23.

🔸Ambuja plans to increase its consolidated capacity to 140 mtpa by FY28E from 77.6 mtpa at present which implies ~16% CAGR.

🔸Adani Cement targets to increase its market share to 20% by FY28 (from current 14%).

🔸Moreover, company is also in process of investing significantly in other operational efficiency measures like:
- optimizing raw material cost
- increasing share of green power
- non-fossil fuels
- logistical efficiency

#Nifty to head for 23400 by June 2024.

🔸Expect bottom in Feb-March with 20500-20800 as strong support

🔸Volatility from hereon should be embraced as a buying opportunity

Which ones are our top picks? Read on... 🧵(1/n)

#StocksToBuy #StockToWatch

https://twitter.com/ICICI_Direct/status/1753313084524073220

PSU Bank: Outperformance to amplify
🔸Decade long breakout
🔸Nifty PSU Banks vs #Nifty ratio turning up post breakout

Key Performers:
🔸#SBI
🔸#BankofBaroda
🔸#IndianBank
🔸#BankofIndia
🔸#PNB
🔸#MaharashtraBank

#StocksToBuy #StockToWatch

ICICI Direct's Top Picks (Technical) for CY 2024 📈📉
(1/n)

🟧 Reliance Industries Limited

🔸Buying range: Rs. 2500-2575
🔸Target: Rs. 3030
🔸Upside Potential: 18%
🔸Timeframe: 12 months (2/n)

🟧 Hindalco

🔸Buying range: Rs. 545-575
🔸Target: Rs. 675
🔸Upside Potential: 19%
🔸Timeframe: 12 months

🔸ICICI Direct's Yearly Technical Outlook - 2024🔸

After successfully achieving our target of 21400 for Nifty in CY2023. We bring you our CY2024 outlook

(1/n) (2/n)

🟧 Our target for Nifty in CY2024 is 24,700 with important support at 18,800 levels

Rationale:
🔸Election year median return is 17%
🔸Decadal cycle return is 15%
🔸Chart projection suggest an upside of 16%

ICICI Direct's Quant Yearly Outlook - 2024

🔸Nifty can scale 24200 in CY-2024🔸
(1/n) (2/n)

🟧 Outlook
🔸Heavyweight stocks from BFSI, Auto, Cement & Healthcare should lead Nifty towards 24200 levels in CY24
🔸We expect volatility to be sticky around current levels in coming months. Hence in the first half of 2024, one should adopt “Buy on dips” strategy

ICICI Direct's Shubh Nivesh Pick 📈📉:
(1/n)

🔸Stock: Cochin Shipyard
🔸CMP: Rs. 1132
🔸Target: Rs. 1340
🔸Timeframe: 6-12 months
🔸Upside potential: ~18% (2/n)

🟧 Investment Rationale

🔸Execution pick-up of strong order-backlog
🔹With advanced state-of-theart infrastructure, CSL is adept with execution of diversified projects in both ship-building and ship-repair segments

FII ownership in Indian markets currently stand at 16.6%, which is at the lowest share since 2012!

This decline is beyond compensated by strong SIP and MF flows.

A thread detailing the same.
1/n 2/n

Aggregate FII holdings in Indian markets stand at Rs 54.5 Trillion (Lakh crore).

🔸Largest allocation: Financials, Consumer Discretionary and IT (selling since Sep' 2023)
🔸Most inflows: Industrials/ Capital Goods, Construction, Chemicals
🔸Pharma/ Healthcare is muted