The new issue of @AmerQuarterly explores how #Uruguay became arguably Latin America’s greatest success story. No, it’s not perfect — but it looks pretty good right now.
I visited in November & came away with 4 main reasons why. A🧵
First, to define “success”
Uruguay is Latin America’s leader in many metrics — highest per capita GDP, lowest poverty rate. Its democracy is strongest in the region & above United States, Britain & Spain, according to EIU. Cleanest energy matrix, best institutions, etc, etc
“Oh, Uruguay is so small, that’s why it’s successful.” Hmm Honduras is small too. And that 7% poverty rate — it was 40% just 20 years ago. Democracy only returned in 1985. So I think this story is “relatable” for other countries facing challenges.
So what are 4 keys to success?
1) “A social safety net strengthens democracy—and capitalism too”
Uruguay has oldest most generous welfare state in Latin America. Some call this socialism but giving people security gives them a stake in the system — Uruguay has never elected a true populist, there is consensus
“It almost doesn’t matter who’s in power; there’s a kind of social democratic consensus that doesn’t fundamentally change,” @NicSaldias told me. Conservative Lacalle Pou govt wants pension reform, etc, but not radical change.
2) “Slow and steady wins the race”
The pace of everything Uruguay can be hard for outsiders — “Every day I want to scream,” one expat from São Paulo said. But as Yamandu Orsi told me: “What may look slow from the outside is often a democratic search for dialogue and consensus.”
3) “Institutions matter, especially when they’re accessible to the public.”
Even amid current alleged corruption scandal involving Lacalle Pou govt, the judiciary is doing its work and the country is proceeding normally. That’s a lot.
4) “Civility is difficult, but worth it”
This image aroused a lot of envy in Latin America — 2 ex-presidents, rivals on left & center right, accompanied Lacalle Pou to Lula’s inauguration. The story of how Uruguay built this culture is fascinating - it wasn’t always thus…
This beautiful quote about civility in politics from Pepe Mujica, a former guerrilla leader in the 1970s who became president in 2010s (and a kind of anti-consumerism hero globally, with his 1986 VW Beatle). My god it’s beautiful, I read it like 25 times
The full story is here. Not just Latin America, but all of us, could learn from Uruguay’s success. It’s not perfect but it may illuminate a path — a viable path — at this time when so many democracies are at risk or fading. Thanks for reading.
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be an AMLO puppet, if she wins in Mexico on Sunday?
Everybody has their opinion -- but the recent history of presidential "succession" in Latin America actually paints a pretty clear picture 1/x
2010, Colombia: Alvaro Uribe helps elect Juan Manuel Santos, who campaigned on continuity of Uribe's hard-line security policies -- and then went in a very different direction, seeking & eventually agreeing peace with the FARC. Uribe was enraged.
2017, Ecuador: Rafael Correa helps elect Lenin Moreno, who then overturned many of Correa's leftist policies, governing as a conservative. Correa (now in exile) was enraged.
Why is a port at "the end of the world" suddenly gaining interest from both Washington and Beijing? 1/x
Punta Arenas, Chile, has seen shipping traffic nearly double in the last 4 years -- as wars choke shipping lanes in the Middle East and Europe, climate change snarls the Panama Canal and technological breakthroughs such as green hydrogen come to the fore.
The Strait of Magellan is also a jumping off point for exploration / exploitation of Antarctica, expected to become even more strategic as the Earth warms. US Southern Command chief Laura Richardson visited the area last year.
I’m not sure anybody realizes JUST HOW MUCH oil Guyana has. On a per-person basis, it’s more than any country in the world — and it’s not even close. This sudden bonanza could improve lives, or ruin the country as it has Venezuela & others. Which will it be? A short thread.
*At least in theory*, Guyana could become as rich as Italy or Japan by the end of this decade, according to the IMF. Before oil was discovered in the 2010s, this former British colony was one of the poorest countries in South America.
Our managing editor @ArriojaJoseE spent a week in Guyana and saw a place still struggling with classic development challenges — but as oil boom starts, inflation is soaring. Some worry about strength of democracy in a country w/ history of ethnic tension
That speech was Lula staking his claim to be the true voice of the Global South, a mantle he aspires to share with Modi. A few observations:
The speech was very ambitious, more so I thought than 20 years ago when Lula focused on hunger & inequality. Today he also touched on climate, democracy, big tech, war in Ukraine & more -- appealing to conscience of the rich world to do more.
Lula today was credible, measured & good humored -- free of the controversy and ill-advised rhetoric that has sometimes marked his off-the-cuff comments in 2023 on Ukraine, Venezuela, etc. Even his allies say he is often better with a script.
Here finally is the untold story of how Biden administration helped dissuade Bolsonaro & parts of Brazil’s military from overturning the 2022 election. Congrats @mj_stott & team. A few thoughts follow
The story gets the most critical detail right — the survival of Brazilian democracy in 2021-22 was mostly a tale of Brazilian institutions & individuals. Some of whom showed great personal courage.
But at several junctures, US officials — and especially the military —told their Brazilian counterparts in no uncertain terms that if democracy was subverted, it would mean the end of bilateral cooperation. This was important to Brazilian military which gets much hardware from US
This piece accurately reflects how Lula’s foreign policy is being perceived in much of Washington – that Brazil has become a threat to the US. I disagree with the author's analysis of Lula's motivations -- I don't think it's anti-Americanism per se (more) theglobalamericans.org/2023/06/brazil…
... Rather, I think Lula & allies believe a multipolar world order will be better than the current US-dominated one. That's a valid & rational doctrine for a country like Brazil, even if I personally have doubts (multipolar worlds historically more unstable... )
Add to that Lula's obvious tolerance for dictators "as long as they're on the left," and I understand why the author -- and many others in Washington -- are coming to this conclusion.