Brian Winter Profile picture
Jan 31 12 tweets 5 min read
The new issue of @AmerQuarterly explores how #Uruguay became arguably Latin America’s greatest success story. No, it’s not perfect — but it looks pretty good right now.

I visited in November & came away with 4 main reasons why. A🧵
First, to define “success”

Uruguay is Latin America’s leader in many metrics — highest per capita GDP, lowest poverty rate. Its democracy is strongest in the region & above United States, Britain & Spain, according to EIU. Cleanest energy matrix, best institutions, etc, etc
“Oh, Uruguay is so small, that’s why it’s successful.” Hmm Honduras is small too. And that 7% poverty rate — it was 40% just 20 years ago. Democracy only returned in 1985. So I think this story is “relatable” for other countries facing challenges.

So what are 4 keys to success?
1) “A social safety net strengthens democracy—and capitalism too”

Uruguay has oldest most generous welfare state in Latin America. Some call this socialism but giving people security gives them a stake in the system — Uruguay has never elected a true populist, there is consensus
“It almost doesn’t matter who’s in power; there’s a kind of social democratic consensus that doesn’t fundamentally change,” @NicSaldias told me. Conservative Lacalle Pou govt wants pension reform, etc, but not radical change.
2) “Slow and steady wins the race”

The pace of everything Uruguay can be hard for outsiders — “Every day I want to scream,” one expat from São Paulo said. But as Yamandu Orsi told me: “What may look slow from the outside is often a democratic search for dialogue and consensus.”
3) “Institutions matter, especially when they’re accessible to the public.”

Even amid current alleged corruption scandal involving Lacalle Pou govt, the judiciary is doing its work and the country is proceeding normally. That’s a lot.
4) “Civility is difficult, but worth it”

This image aroused a lot of envy in Latin America — 2 ex-presidents, rivals on left & center right, accompanied Lacalle Pou to Lula’s inauguration. The story of how Uruguay built this culture is fascinating - it wasn’t always thus…
This beautiful quote about civility in politics from Pepe Mujica, a former guerrilla leader in the 1970s who became president in 2010s (and a kind of anti-consumerism hero globally, with his 1986 VW Beatle). My god it’s beautiful, I read it like 25 times
The full story is here. Not just Latin America, but all of us, could learn from Uruguay’s success. It’s not perfect but it may illuminate a path — a viable path — at this time when so many democracies are at risk or fading. Thanks for reading.

americasquarterly.org/article/what-u…
And here’s a link to the whole issue, with important essay on Uruguay’s trade policy by @ericfarns

americasquarterly.org/article/new-aq…
PS just to remind you my REAL reason for traveling

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More from @BrazilBrian

Jan 8
Really upsetting to see the symbols of Brazilian democracy and law and order being vandalized today. January 8 is Brazil’s January 6. Not even on the calendar were Bolsonaro fanatics capable of much originality.
Two observations
1) Brazilian leaders of Congress are not present
So unlike US the lives of Brazilian Congressional leaders are not in danger, nor is the transition of power which has already taken place in Brazil
2) Jan 6 upset enough law abiding, democratic Americans - including yes many Republicans - that it backfired on Trump & accelerated
… his decline. Conservative movement remains strong but shifted to more “normal” seeming DeSantis. Similar dynamic was already apparent in Brazil, Bolsonaro in exile in Florida
But we’ll see. It’s all still unfolding, very dynamic, very sad
Read 11 tweets
Dec 7, 2022
Huge news out of Peru: Backed against the wall and facing impeachment, Castillo doubles down and tries a Fujimori-style self-coup.
Here's a clip of Castillo's announcement. Note the shaking hand

For more, a good calm rundown from El Pais:

elpais.com/internacional/…
Read 13 tweets
Nov 22, 2022
There it is — Bolsonaro endorses his party’s challenge of the October 30 election he lost to Lula. It won’t succeed, but things could still get rocky in coming weeks as pro-Bolsonaro protests continue & some in his party push for radical next steps (more)

reuters.com/world/americas…
In São Paulo this week I stopped by pro-Bolsonaro protests outside military barracks to hear what they were saying. Heard a bunch of fake news & some residual hopes that armed forces would “intervene” to keep Bolsonaro in power (Won’t happen.)
I also spoke to some in Bolsonaro’s party who say if TSE (electoral court) doesn’t agree to overturn election, they will seek to invoke Article 142 of Constitution, which they believe gives military power to jail Supreme Court judges & annul election. (Also won’t happen.)
Read 5 tweets
Nov 10, 2022
The Brazilian military’s audit of the Oct 30 election found that — hey wait a minute, why is a military auditing an election again???
Ah yes it’s because Brazil’s electoral court saw it as a possible step to pacify or neutralize Bolsonaro’s constant rhetoric this year about the voting system being open to fraud — and figured they had nothing to hide, so let’s let the soldiers in
Still worth pausing to remember how messed up that is — not what a military is supposed to be doing in a healthy democracy
Read 4 tweets
Nov 1, 2022
Bolsonaro finally speaks. He did not explicitly recognize Lula's win, but said he would obey Constitution.

His chief of staff then took podium and said transition to Lula would happen normally.

Overall: About as bland/normal as one could hope from him
The speech was not much longer than my tweet
Bolsonaro in glasses is usually a calmer Bolsonaro Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 1, 2022
I believe Team Biden deserves credit for balanced handling of Brazil over past 2 years. Avoided falling into war of words with Bolsonaro - which he would have loved - kept president at arm’s length but also continued economic & strategic relationship with Brazil (more)
This year, as Bolsonaro attacked voting system in clear echoes of Trump, Biden folks consistently expressed confidence in Brazil’s election — then congratulated Lula right away on election night, which was key. Think history will show US (& others) helped preserve democracy.
PS no, it may not all be “over” quite yet
Read 4 tweets

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