I’m surprised this person is putting this number out there— 50% of Russian VDV (airborne) lost Feb-September 2022. Let’s walk though some numbers to see if a range of numbers can be found and what that might say of remaining VDV combat potential. (/1)
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1620409293353918464
“Losing 50%” does not necessarily mean losing 50% of total VDV strength (45,000; IISS 2022). The VDV still uses conscripts, who are not to be sent to Ukraine. the VDV is made of around 30% conscripts, according to Russian numbers. varying by the unit. /2.
His 50% loss estimate is likely referring to a subset of officers and professional enlisted casualties —those deployed to Ukraine—a smaller number than the 45,000. We can estimate that number./3
As of 2015,the mix of the Russian VDV was 4,000 officers, 41,000 enlisted. Of those 41k, 52% were professional enlisted soldiers ~20,000. Russia had a 2020 goal of getting to 80% contractniki by 2020, or 32k. (Rand, appendix, p 146) rand.org/pubs/research_…
Did Russia achieve that number by 2020? No they changed it a little. In 2021, the spring draft brought in 6,000 VDV conscripts (KZ, April 21), 3,000 for fall 2021 (RG Oct 21), so 9K. VDV said 27,000 professional enlisted (RG Aug 21) and I assume a stable 4k officer billets /5
BBC’s Russian service is tracking military funerals in Russia. By January, the VDV lost the most of all services, 1,425. they caveat this number is probably low by 40-60%. If true that would put the number of VDV KIA around 2100 as of January. /6 
Link to BBC report: bbcrussian.substack.com/p/russian-loss…
Adding WIA to the count, conservatively at 3:1 ratio, that approaches anywhere from 4,200-6,300 WIA. All together that is a possible casualty range of 5,200- 8400 VDV (using BBC confirmations and caveat range), a conservative estimate or floor. /8
The rybar guy said 50% VDV loss. Assuming 100% vdv manning and 100% commitment at war start (which is very unlikely given the holes everywhere else), that would be 4k officers+ 27k = 31K. 50% would be 15.5k total casualties for a high-range but low confidence estimate. /9
When you assume incomplete manning or commitment at war start of those eligible for deployment, let’s say 80% based on other units in Russia, that then the number changes to 12,000 casualties using rybar guy. /10th
We don’t know what % of the VDV is committed to Ukraine at any time and we don’t know what he means by losses, or his credibility, so it’s not all that helpful. It’s one piece of info. /11
What can we learn from this? The Rybar guy says 50% VDV have been lost. BBC used methods to identify deaths of 4-7% of available VDV paratroopers. Those bbc numbers go up to 12-21% if one assumes a 3:1 wounded/killed ratio. /12
It’s difficult to get precise statistics from a country that has criminalized combat deaths for many years. At best, these sorts of data points can provide low to moderate assessments of casualties and combat potential. /13
The VDV has lost many vehicles and all or part of those vehicles crews, which is another method to estimate losses although not perfect either /14
The VDV is a heavily damaged force because it was misused in the beginning of the war. Some of its units stand accused of war crimes. /15
VDV casualties have likely slowed in the summer/fall, as they were withdrawn from western Kherson . Now they are being recommitted— at a much lower combat potential— for small Russian offensives on the front so numbers will likely go up. Russias once elite troops are damaged.end
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