Thread by @Wilkmans

Explosion Risk in Russian Tanks that have been Damaged or Destroyed 
Statistical analysis of ammunition explosions in 766 tanks used by Russia in Ukraine between February 2022 and January 31, 2023.

The models and versions we have included are as follows: 
T62 & M/MV (the oldest tank, in service from 1961)
A T-64A/BV (1966-) (captured in Russian service)
A T-72A 
A T-72B (1980th) 
A T-72B3 Obr 2016 (newest version) 
T-80U
T-80BVM (2018, newest version) 
T-90A

A thread:

A) Conclusion
B) Results
C) Methodology and selection of data
D) Images of the individual tanks (ammo explosion)
E) Id-No of each tank for more images

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Conclusion
This is a statistical analysis from a war where the tank models are exposed to the same enemy weapons and tactics and are in the same environment.

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Compared to the old T-62, the most modern T-72B3 Obr 2016 is 3,5 times more likely to have a catastrophic ammunition explosion.
Compared to the old T-62, the most modern T-80BVM (2018) is 3,6 times more likely to have a catastrophic ammunition explosion.

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Compared to the old T-62, the T-90A is 3,9 times more likely to have a ammunition explosion.
The tank model that is most prone to having an ammunition explosion is the T-80U, which is 4,25 times more likely to have a ammunition explosion compared to the old T-62.

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Of the more modern tanks used by Russia it is the T-64A/BV that has the least problem with exploding ammunition, though it is still 2 times more likely to have a catastrophic ammunition explosion compared to the old T-62.

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Percentage risk of a damaged tank having a catastrophic ammunition explosion: 
A T-62 M/MV that were to be hit and penetrated has a 16% risk of a ammunition explosion. 
A T-64A/BV that is hit and penetrated has a 32% risk of a ammunition explosion. 

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A T-72A (oldest version) that is hit and penetrated has a 59% risk of a ammunition explosion.
A T-72B (1980th) that is hit and penetrated has a 62% risk of a ammunition explosion.

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A T-72B3 Obr 2016 (newest version) that is hit and penetrated has a 57% risk of a ammunition explosion.
A T-80U that is hit and penetrated has a 68% risk of a ammunition explosion.
A T-80BVM (2018) that is hit and penetrated has a 59% risk of a ammunition explosion.

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A T-90A that is hit and penetrated has a 62,5% risk of a ammunition explosion.

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Results: 
T-62 losses in Ukraine until January 27, 2023 There have been 62 Oryx-verified T-62 & M/MV losses. Of them, 25 T-62 are damaged or destroyed. Of the 25 damaged or destroyed T-62 tanks, 4 had suffered ammunition explosions. 

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A T-62 that were to be hit and penetrated has a 16% risk of a catastrophic ammunition explosion.

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T-64 losses in Ukraine until January 27, 2023 There have been 50 Oryx-verified T-64A and BV losses. Of them, 44 T-64 are damaged or destroyed. Of the 44 damaged or destroyed T-64 tanks, 14 had suffered catastrophic ammunition explosions. 

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A T-64 that were to be hit and penetrated has a 32% risk of a catastrophic ammunition explosion.

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T-72A losses in Ukraine until January 31, 2023 There have been 36 Oryx-verified T-72A losses. Of them, 22 T-72A are damaged or destroyed. Of the 22 damaged or destroyed T-72A tanks, 13 had suffered catastrophic ammunition explosions. 

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A T-72A that were to be hit and penetrated has a 59% risk of a catastrophic ammunition explosion.

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T-72B (1980th) losses in Ukraine until January 31, 2023 There have been 229 Oryx-verified T-72B (1980th) losses. Of them, 160 T-72B (1980th) are damaged or destroyed. Of the 160 damaged or destroyed T-72B (1980th) tanks, 99 had suffered catastrophic ammunition explosions.  

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A T-72B (1980th) that were to be hit and penetrated has a 62% risk of a catastrophic ammunition explosion.

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The newest T-72B3 Obr 2016 losses in Ukraine until January 27, 2023 There have been 201 Oryx verified losses for the most recent model, the T-72B3 Obr 2016. Fourteen were damaged, and 91 were destroyed in combat. That is a total of 105 damaged or destroyed T-72B3 Obr 2016.  

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Furthermore, of the 105 damaged or destroyed T-72B3 Obr 2016 tanks, there are 60 that have suffered an ammunition explosion. A T-72B3 Obr 2016 that is hit and penetrated has a 57% risk of a catastrophic ammunition explosion.

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T-80U losses in Ukraine until January 27, 2023 There have been 90 Oryx-verified T-80U losses. Of them, 41 T-80U are damaged or destroyed. Of the 41 damaged or destroyed A T-80U tanks, 28 had suffered catastrophic ammunition explosions.  

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A T-80U that were to be hit and penetrated has a 68% risk of a catastrophic ammunition explosion.

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T-80BVM (2018, newest version)  losses in Ukraine until January 27, 2023 There have been 66 Oryx-verified T-80BVM losses. Of them, 36 T-80BVM (2018) are damaged or destroyed. Of the 36 damaged or destroyed T-80BVM tanks, 21 had suffered catastrophic ammunition explosions.  

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A T-80BVM (2018) that were to be hit and penetrated has a 58% risk of a catastrophic ammunition explosion.

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T-90A losses in Ukraine until January 27, 2023 There have been 32 Oryx-verified T-90A losses. Of them, 16 T-90A are damaged or destroyed. Of the 16 damaged or destroyed T-90A tanks, 10 had suffered catastrophic ammunition explosions.  

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A T-90A that were to be hit and penetrated has a 62,5% risk of a catastrophic ammunition explosion.

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Methodology and selection of data
I'm using the Oryx database, where confirmed losses are listed with images of each individual vehicle loss. The images presented below correspond to the Oryx Id-No for the losses listed under their respective model and version.

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Please visit the Oryx database for more images. Use the Oryx Id-No listed below with EACH individual model and version: "destroyed" combined with the "id-numbers".
I'm counting the tanks that had a catastrophic ammunition explosion.

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It is not enough that the tank is smoking or has burned. The ammunition MUST have exploded. That often dislodges the turret.
Some turrets are slightly dislodged, like T-72B3 Obr 2016 loss Id-No:7, but that is an ammunition explosion even if the turret is not blown 100 meters

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from the tank. Some have the turret in place but have explosions that blow out the sides of the tank or crack the hull.
To make better judgement of destruction level I also use the database ukr.warspotting.net where the same losses are listed often with many more images.

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Though they do not use the same numbers as Oryx. But you can fined them by matching the date stamps.

Some tanks had the engine compartment blow out or burn out; these are not counted as ammunition explosions.

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Even if the turret is dislodged, tanks that were damaged and LATER demolished are not counted as having an ammunition explosion.

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Images and Id-No to each tank counted as having a ammunition explosion:
The destroyed T-64A/BV has the Oryx Id-No listed as: "destroyed" combined with the "numbers": 1 5 8 12 13 18 19 20 24 25 28 29 35 36

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Not counted, but there could be dislodged turret or signs of ammunition explosions in the crew compartment. Id-No 2 30

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The destroyed T-72A has the Oryx Id-No listed as: "destroyed" combined with the "numbers": 1 2 3 6 7 8 9 13 14 16 17 18 19
Not counted, but there could be dislodged turret or signs of ammunition explosions in the crew compartment. Id-No 4 10

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The destroyed T-72B (1980th) has the Oryx Id-No listed as: "destroyed" combined with the "numbers": 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 16 19 21 22 23 25 26 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 43 44 45 47 48 50 52 53 56 57 58 60 61 62 64 65 66 67 70 71 72 76 78 80 84 86 88

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91 92 93 94 95 99 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 112 113 114 115 116 117 120 122 126 127 129 130 131 132 133 134 137 138 140 141 142 143 145 146
Not counted, but there could be dislodged turret or signs of explosions in the crew compartment. Id-No 24 27 46 59 118 128

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The 60 destroyed T-72B3 Obr 2016 has the Oryx Id-No listed as: "destroyed" combined with the "numbers": 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 13 16 17 18 20 21 22 23 25 27 28 30 32 33 34 35 38 40 42 44 52 53 54 55 59 60 62 63 65 66 67 68 69 70 72 73 74 76 77 80 81 82 83 84 85 87 88 90 91 92

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Not counted, but there could be dislodged turret or signs of ammunition explosions in the crew compartment. Id-No 75 89.

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The destroyed T-80U has the Oryx Id-No listed as: "destroyed" combined with the "numbers": 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 24 25 26 27 30 31 32 33 35
Not counted, but there could be signs of explosions in the crew compartment. Id-No 18 22 23

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The destroyed T-80BVM has the Oryx Id-No listed as: "destroyed" combined with the "numbers": 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 13 14 15 16 18 19 20 21 23 27 28 29
Not counted, but there could be dislodged turret or signs of ammunition explosions in the crew compartment. Id-No 6

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The destroyed T-90A has the Oryx Id-No listed as: "destroyed" combined with the "numbers": 2 3 4 5 7 11 14 15 16 17

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IMAGES OF THE 4 T-62 WITH AMMUNITION EXPLOSION

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IMAGES OF THE 60 T-72B3 Obr 2016 WITH AMMUNITION EXPLOSION
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End of the new thread "Explosion Risk in Russian Tanks that have been Damaged or Destroyed , a statistical analysis."

@Cornubot

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@pmakela1

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Credit to Oryx for the raw data for the thread, and ukr.warspotting.net @naalsio26 for extra images.

@Cornubot @TrentTelenko @noclador @pmakela1 @oryxspioenkop @DefMon3 @naalsio26 "Explosion Risk in Russian Tanks that have been Damaged or Destroyed"
Statistical analysis of ammunition explosions
#T72 #T62 #T80 #T90
#tanks

Notice: This is a thread about tanks in Russian use. 

The T-64A/BV are captured Ukrainian tanks, and in this statistical analysis, only 32% had an ammunition explosion.

Though: I have also analyzed the tanks in Ukraine's use (not presented above). But in that analysis, the T-64BV suffers from a higher degree of ammunition explosion. 133 of the 198 T-64BVs lost by Ukraine were damaged or destroyed.

And of the 133 damaged or destroyed Ukraine T-64BV 64% had an ammunition explosion. That number is in line with the T-72, T-80 and T-90 in Russian use, which are in the range of 57% to 68%.

I do not offer an explanation for this. But acknowledge that a tank in Russian service does not face the same weapons and tactics as those in Ukraine.

Is there any difference in the explosion risk in the early war compared to the late war?

We have 94 T-72B3 Obr 2016 registrations that have been destroyed. Half of them (47), were lost up to July 30th, and 30 of them had suffered a catastrophic ammunition explosion.

From August 1st to January 31st we had the other half lost (47) and 30 ammunition explosions. Its exact the same risk in the first 47 lost with 30 explosions as in the later 47 lost.

About the illustrations in the image

The illustrations is representative for the Tank model, NOT the exact version.

I have been asked about the results of the T-90M and T-90S that I chose not to include in the image due to a small number of observations.  Anyway, here is the result.

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T-90S losses in Ukraine until feb 7, 2023 There have been 6 Oryx-verified T-90S losses. Of the T-90S there are 1 damaged and 4 destroyed. Of the total of 5 damaged or destroyed T-90S tanks, 2 had suffered catastrophic ammunition explosions.

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A T-90S that is hit and penetrated has a 40% risk of a catastrophic ammunition explosion. (small number of observations)

The destroyed T-90S has the Oryx Id-No listed as: "destroyed" combined with the "numbers": 1 2

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T-90M losses in Ukraine until feb 6, 2023 There have been 10 Oryx-verified T-90M losses. Of the T-90M five are damaged, and three are destroyed. Of the total of 8 damaged or destroyed T-90M tanks, 2 had suffered catastrophic ammunition explosions.

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A T-90M that is hit and penetrated has a 25% risk of a catastrophic ammunition explosion. (small number of observations)

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The destroyed T-90M has the Oryx Id-No listed as: "destroyed" combined with the "numbers": 1 2, (notice that No 3 has lost its turret but it is a demolition of a damaged tank and not an explosion).

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If one combine the losses of T-90S and T-90M to have a larger amount of observations we get this result:

A T-90M/S that is hit and penetrated has a 31% risk of a catastrophic ammunition explosion. (small number of observations)

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