Thread by @AndrewPerpetua

Here is an update as of the morning of February 1st, 2023. This report will not include news from February 1st. #ukrdailyupdate (shhh)

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com

Russia is continuing their shellings of Ukrainian towns in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts. In addition, there are occasional rocket strikes on cities beyond the border towns and rare reports of airstrikes.

Many believe this shelling is training for artillery and mortar crews, although maybe the rocket strikes are on more important targets. These shellings frequently result in civilian casualties and deaths, particularly in Vovchansk.

There are also reports of civilians being wounded and killed by mines left by Russians during their retreat.

I have recently found very little news about the Kupyansk area beyond reports of shelling and rocket attacks.

Russia regularly shells Kupyansk itself with both artillery and missiles, unfortunately wounding or killing civilians. Dvorichna, Podoly, and other towns in the area are also regularly shelled, with civilian casualties.

Ukraine is attacking Kuzemivka with their tanks and armored vehicles, which implies their infantry have taken a foothold in the town and are seeking support from their heavier weapons.

There have been shelling reports of Kovalivka recently, which I cannot remember happening prior. If it had happened prior, it has been a long time since. Ukraine has long held the high ground southwest of this town, which overlooks the Zherebets River.

Shelling in this area could indicate that Russia is shelling this high ground or that Ukraine infringes on the settlement itself.

Russia has pushed Ukraine out of the forest strips immediately west of Chervonopopivka and may have pushed them back to the border of the Donetsk oblast a further 2.5km west. All in all, Ukraine has lost between 2km and 6km of control west of Chervonopopivka.

Furthermore, Russia is pushing west toward Yampolivka, but I am not aware of successful movement in this direction, merely attempts at such. Therefore, I have drawn a large 4.7km buffer area between Russian and Ukrainian control areas in this region.

Russia is also attacking Dibrova, but I do not think they control the town yet. Ukraine did not establish control over Dibrova before this, but they had some presence in the west. Kuzmyne, which is just east of Dibrova, is either a gray area or controlled by Russia.

Ukrainian assaults in this area have entirely stopped, and Russia is preparing an offensive in the Kreminna area.

Logically, any offensive in this area would aim to capture Lyman, exerting a lot of pressure on the northern side of Slovyansk. Russia would then attack Siversk to apply pressure from the east, and with the capture of Bakhmut, there would be pressure from the south.

Ukraine has been preparing for these attacks for some time, so we will see how things play out.

In the Siversk area, Russia continues its assaults on Bilohorivka and Spirne. Bilohorivka is a difficult town for Ukraine because Russian tanks easily cover the road that supplies it. Supply is an adventure.

In the Soledar area, Russia recently captured the tiny town of Sakko i Vantsetti, and now there is heavy fighting all around this town. To the east in Mykolaivka, north on the road to Fedorivka, and west near Vasyukivka.

From the Sol area of Soledar, Russia is pushing west on a vector toward Pryvillya and southwest on a vector toward Zaliznyanske. However, their progress is minimal.

Russia captured Blahodatne, west of Soledar, on the 28th. They are pushing south from there toward Krasna Hora, where they are attacking from the northwest, and toward Paraskoviivka, where they are attacking from the north.

Krasna Hora is particularly difficult, but the most recent reports say it is still in Ukrainian control.

Bakhmut area: The northern side of Bakhmut appears to have stabilized after getting reinforcements. There is still heavy fighting. The same is generally true of the eastern side of Bakhmut on Patrisa Lumumby street and the southeast of Bakhmut near the garbage dump.

South of Bakhmut, there is news that Russia pushed west from Opytne after failing to move north into the city. Separately, I have seen unconfirmed reports that Russia entered the Bakhmut cemetery west of Opytne. I await confirmation.

Ivanivske area: Russia is pushing up the canal toward the highway, and they have made some advances. I’ve also heard about small advances toward Ivanivske itself, although unable to find details. The area is currently under the control of Ukraine, but the situation is complicated

The Toretsk area: Russia is pushing from Zaitseve toward Druzhba, attempting to advance along the treelines perpendicular to the railway to get closer to the urban agglomeration of Toretsk.

The New York area is getting heavily shelled.

The Avdiivka area: Avdiivka itself is getting heavily shelled, and there are minor Russian attacks on the front of the city.

More significantly, Russia is attacking Vodyane, where they have taken significant casualties without much to show for it. We’re talking about dozens of armored vehicles lost to capture just half of a tiny town.

Ukraine has artillery, tanks, and anti-tank missile systems north of Vodyane. The terrain is very flat with long site lines, and when combined with scout drones, it is easy to identify and destroy Russian attacks from long distances.

There is ongoing fighting in Pervomaiske, although I do not know the intensity of this fighting. Russia has not made any significant progress in several months.

The Marinka area: Russia appears to have halted its breakthrough attempts in Marinka. There is ongoing fighting, but Russia has shifted its focus south toward Pobjeda and Paraskoviivka.

Regarding Paraskoviivka, Russia has yet to approach the town. They are at least 3.5km away, but they are attempting to move in the direction of this town to bypass the defenses in Marinka and Novomykhailivka.

Like Vodyane, Ukraine has artillery, tanks, and anti-tank missile systems placed along this wide-open flat terrain, so any advance is difficult for Russian forces and often comes with heavy casualties.

The Vuhledar area: Russia is continuing its assault on the city. All of their assaults have failed thus far, and they are trying to alter their tactics.

Rather than sending in large assault forces, they are sending in smaller units, perhaps trying to learn from Wagner’s success near Bakhmut.

The weather around Vuhledar has been challenging, with low cloud cover, snow, and wind making it difficult to fly drones. Nevertheless, Russia still has large reserves and can continue attacking Vuhledar for an extended period.

As for the Zaporizhzhia area: There are small-scale attacks near Marfopil, attacking Hulyaipole. There are more significant attacks near Dorozhnyanka, again pushing toward Hulyaipole.

There are smaller-scale attacks near Kopani pushing toward Orikhiv and slightly stronger attacks near Nesterianka, again moving toward Orikhiv. There are artillery duels near Kopani.

There are small-scale attacks near Shcherbaky.

Yesterday, Russia complained about a Ukrainian raid across the Dnipro River south of Kherson, near Velykyi Potomkin Island. The result of the raid is unknown, but Russians claim they fired artillery into the area for several hours.