David Helms Profile picture
Feb 1, 2023 21 tweets 11 min read Read on X
1/ Who is operating the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (K-HPP)? What have K-HPP operator done that has caused the Kakhovka Reservoir to drop to 30 year low levels risking drinking water for millions and irrigation for 250 million hectares? A #NAFOWeather 🧵
2/ Kakhovka HPP is the 6th (and final) dam on the Dnipro River. The purpose of the dam is to provide water for irrigation, drinking, industry, shipping. K-HPP maintains Kakhovka Reservoir at 16m above MSL providing water for irrigation canals (e.g. NCC) & the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Image
3/ Who is operating the Kakhovka HPP?
Russians have occupied & operated the K-HPP since about March 1, 2022. Initially, the Ukrainian dam operator, @Ukrhydroenergo, provided technical assistance to Russian operators, but competent staff technical advise ceased after spring 2022. Image
4/ On 11 NOV 2022, Russian occupiers were forced to retreat from the Dnipro River right (west) bank. Russians had accused UAF of planning to blow up the K-HPP dam, but it was the Russians who set charges to destroy the road and rail deck to block UAF.
5/ The Kakhovka Reservoir water level has lowered over 2 meters since October 2022. What have the Russian HPP operators done to cause the water level to drop to 30 year lows? https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/c...
6/ Some Kakhovka HPP geography:
2-Gantry Cranes: Manually lift/lower sluice gates to control reservoir water levels
28-Sluice Gates: Barriers that can be opened to reservoir discharge water
6 -Electric Turbines: Generate 357 MW (all became inoperable during Russian HPP operation) https://en.uhe.gov.ua/projects
7/ Russians destroyed the road and bridge decks on 11 NOV 2022 during their retreat from the right bank. @Maxar image shows road and rail deck destruction; blast may also have damaged sluice gates 1-3 which appear to be leaking water. Note gantry crane position left bank side. Image
8/ Does leaking water from Sluice Gates 1-3 explain the reservoir water drop? No.
The following tweets will show Russian operators intentionally lower the reservoir level by opening multiple sluice gates. Already on 13 NOV 2022, operators have moved Gantry Cranes & opened gates. November 13 Video of damage...
9/ Russian intentional discharge of K-HPP water:
5 NOV 2022, 10 NOV 2022, and 11 NOV 2022
By NOV 11 mid-day (12 hours after blast), @Maxar imagery shows damaged Sluice Gates 1-3 and Gantry Cranes far south-side (away from blast). All Sluice Gates are closed. November 5, 2022 Sentinel 2...
10/ Russian intentional discharge of K-HPP water:
Immediately after the November 11 blast, Russians have opened Sluice Gates nearest to their positions on the Dnipro River left bank (south side) closest to their positions.
Video: 13 NOV 2022
Sentinel 2: 15 NOV 2022 November 13, 2022 Video htt...
11/ Russian intentional discharge of K-HPP water: In January 2023, Russian operators opened additional Sluice Gates on the left bank side of the K-HPP allowing water to discharge more rapidly from Kakhovka Reservoir. January 1, 2023 Sentinel 2 ...
12/ Russian intentional discharge of K-HPP water: Table summarizes Gantry Cranes and Sluice Gate position/water discharge. The table shows Russian operated ACTIVELY worked to release water from Kakhovka Reservoir long after their retreat from the right bank on 11 NOV 2023. Image
13/ Anecdotes of Kakhovka Reservoir dramatic water level impact - Water Utility Advisory (1 FEB 2023)
14/ Anecdotes of Kakhovka Reservoir dramatic water level impact - Unusual sand bars and exposed beach (24 JAN 2023)
15/ Anecdotes of Kakhovka Reservoir dramatic water level impact - New sand bars and shoals near Kamianske Islands, north Kakhovka Reservoir (26 JAN 2023)
16/ Russians intentionally released 50% of Kakhovka Reservoir's useful storage volume, >3 cubic kilometers of water critical for irrigation, drinking water, & industry. This water release is consistent with Russian attacks on Ukrainian water & energy civilian infrastructure. /end Image
Confirmation of lowering reservoir level by @iaeaorg
iaea.org/newscenter/pre… Image
Confirmation of lowering Kakhovka reservoir lowering by @iaeaorg
iaea.org/newscenter/pre… Image

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More from @davidhelms570

Jan 15
1/ Update on river ice conditions on the lower Dnipro near UAF left bank beachhead. Average temperatures in the south have fallen below 0C since 8 JAN, much below 0C after 11 JAN lowering water temps to near 0C and starting river ice growth. Image
2/ Most recent visible imagery: Sentinel-2 (9 JAN) shows dark water indicating unfrozen water w/ no snow cover. LANDSAT8 (11 JAN) shows ice formation in the larger lakes between the Antonovsky Bridges. Ice is definitely forming on the Konka River but not yet on the Dnipro River.
Image
Image
3/ Sentinel-1 SAR timeseries:
11 JAN: Rough surface ( speckled gray) on Dnipro indicates wind waves on open water
15 JAN: Dark surface with white ridges on Dnipro RIver shows new ice (nilas, 5-10 cm thick); Konka river definitely frozen.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 19, 2023
On 8 NOV 2023, a RF missile struck a Liberian registered commercial ship in Odesa region port. This #NAFOWeather🧵examines why the ship was in Ukrainian port, initial findings on RF weapon used, subsequent data available to confirm initial findings & impact to #UkriCor transits.
2/ Prior to the 24 FEB 2022 full-scale RF invasion, Ukraine exported enough grain to feed 400 million people, most in the famine probe Global South.
topleadprojects.com/environmental-…
Image
3/ Since 24 FEB 2022, RF has systematically attacked Ukraine's ag infrastructure, blockaged ports & seized grain in occupied areas w/ the goal of weaponizing grain to pay for its war effort, hurt Ukraine's economy & deny food to Ukraine's export partners.

Image
Read 23 tweets
Oct 25, 2023
1/ There has been daily reports of clashes near the Antonovsky Rail Bridge crossing of the Dnipro river between Prydniprovs'ke and Poima since 18 October 2023. A #NAFOWeather🧵on the Dnipro wetland ground conditions supporting offensive operations.
Image
2/ First, key dates in this region: Important to note that RF used this location to ferry troops and vehicles in the fall 2022 and UAF has been been attacking RF obn the left bank near the Antonovsky Bridge 6 km downstream of this location in late June 2023. Image
3/ The Dnipro river delta wetlands is about 3.9 km wide at the Antonovsky Rail Bridge crossing. The crossing includes two bridges, 0.5 km bridge (destroyed) over the Dnipro main channel and a 40 meter bridge (destroyed) over the Verkhnya Konka River. Image
Read 16 tweets
Oct 15, 2023
1/ Fall 2023 #MudSeason “bezdorizhzhia (ukr.)/rasputiza" prediction. 15 OCT 2023 Update (version 1!), a #NAFOWeather 🧵
2/ BLUF: Fall 2023 #MudSeason onset will likely be delayed a month due to lower rainfall over east & south Ukraine from AUG thru early OCT 2023. The result of rainfall deficit, along with clear skies & lower humidity increased evaporation caused lower soil moisture than normal. Image
3/ Background: This prediction uses NATO Reference Mobility Model (NRMM) derived correlation between soil moisture and soil strength. While NRMM uses multiple land surface features to develop maximum speed predictions, the most time-variant feature is soil moisture. Image
Read 14 tweets
Sep 22, 2023
1/ On 17 JUL, Ukrainian #USVs damaged the Kerch vehicle bridge near Tuzla Island. On 3 AUG, Tanker SIG was severely damaged by a #USV while at anchor south of the Kerch bridge. In addition to sinking barges (see below), what has RF done to protect Kerch shipping? A #NAFOWeather🧵
2/ Pictures are today's ship position (mostly at anchor south of the Kerch bridge), the right picture includes the ship track heat map from 2022. Ships that anchored west of Port Taman in 2022 are now gone.
What happened?
Image
Image
3/ Sentinel 2 True Color loop shows northern most anchorage clearing out between 21 AUG and 10 SEP.
Read 15 tweets
Sep 10, 2023
1/ It has been 3 months since the Russians blew-up the Kakhovka HPP dam on 6 June 2023. What is happening to the Dnipro River hydrology and ecology? What are are the options for rebuilding the HPP and possibility for a Dnipro left-bank beachhead? A #NAFOWeather 🧵
Outline: Image
2/ K-HPP Destruction Impacts:
- Irrigation/agricultural land lost: 350,000-550,000 ha
- Drinking (population 700,000) and industrial water loss
- Zaporizhzhia NPP cooling pond water supply loss
- 14,000 homes flooded, many drowned

topleadprojects.com/environmental-…
theguardian.com/world/2023/jun…

Image
Image
3/ 6-11 June Water Level Changes: Nikopol (left y-axis) and Kherson City (right y-axis) from Vyshnevskyi, et al, 2023
Immediately after the Russians blew up the K-HPP dam, the Kakhovka Reservoir water level began lowering and within 6 hours, the Kherson City water level increased Image
Read 50 tweets

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