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Feb 2 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
#panr $pthrf $panr
Excellent interview. CEO reinforces the model used for ILLUSTRATIVE purposes during recent webinar was a stress test and draconian in nature in order to show the market Alkaid is economic *even if* the data doesn't improve after sand blockage cleared. 1/
To be clear, once the sand blockage is cleared the company expects improved flow rates and improved hydrocarbon mix.
CTO added blunt message. #panr has never been in a stronger position than now ref. data retrieval and confidence in project. Market needs to wake up IMO. 2/ $panr
Bob Rosenthal confirmed selection process started for IER author, plus Schlumberger has agreed to assist in dataroom. IER to be written on Theta West plus updates to Alkaid and SMD IERs.
Great interview. Stock moves up, IMO, as market anticipates post-blockage results. /end
#panr

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More from @Scot126126

Scot126 Profile picture
Jan 25
#panr $panr $pthrf
There appears to be a massive misunderstanding about what the "illustrative" Alkaid model published by $panr means. I think I can be of some assistance 😇.
The NPV figures released yesterday formed a *base* case on the *current* volume and the...1/
...*current* hydrocarbon mix, incorporating the *current* pricing of ANS (oil/NGL/condensate) and addressing the Alkaid reservoir *only*.
Current mkt cap: $500m
Alkaid anomaly NPV10 @ $80 oil = $423m
Alkaid anomaly NPV10 @ $70 oil = $223m
Alkaid anomaly NPV10 @ $60 oil = $12m
2/
#panr $panr $pthrf
A) Volume expected to improve in absolute *and* per thousand feet terms after the blockage is cleared. Nordic rig arrives at Alkaid-2 pad today to begin clean-out procedure. 7-10 days duration.

B) Hydrocarbon mix is expected to improve after the frack...3/
Read 10 tweets
Scot126 Profile picture
Jan 2
$panr #panr $pthrf
Seeking Alpha won't publish my fact check so here it is. Sorry about the length of the thread but it was written for a different platform. 1/
"Fact check: condensate and NGLs are produced elsewhere on the North Slope. For example Exxon produces >10,000 barrels per day of condensate/NGLs and fully 7% of Conoco's ANS production is condensate/NGLs. The author states, "While the oil is easily...2/
$panr #panr $pthrf
..."marketable due to the proximity of a pipeline, the NGLs are less marketable and likely receive a fraction of the net price of the oil." There is no issue with the oil part of the sentence but please note the author has deleted any reference to condensate. 3/
$panr #panr
Read 18 tweets
Scot126 Profile picture
Dec 8, 2022
#panr $pthrf
I've read a disappointingly large number of dreadfully ill-informed commentary following today's RNS, especially as it pertains to the differential between $panr's OIP figure of >23bbo and Schlumberger's 17.8bbo. 1/
The RNS spells out the primary reason for the differential: "Schlumberger's OIP estimates for Theta West were constrained to the project's 3D footprint with more conservative reservoir parameters than Pantheon's at the lease boundaries. 2/
#panr $panr $pthrf
With additional drilling data points, potential exists for Schlumberger's modelling estimates to increase in the future."

On a higher level, it is uneventfully mundane and utterly bog-standard for external experts in the O&G industry to publish reports which...3/
$panr #panr
Read 6 tweets
Scot126 Profile picture
Dec 8, 2022
$panr $pthrf #panr
Some highlights from today's RNS which are being missed (deliberately or not) by commentators.
- "Schlumberger's report represents the most comprehensive model completed on evaluating the discovered oil resource and the productive potential." 1/
- "The Schlumberger model is extremely detailed, comprising c. 13 million individual three dimensional cells within the c. 153,000 acres of Pantheon's current leasehold."
- "This model is extremely comprehensive, having been developed over the past six months and...2/
$panr #panr
...involved in excess of 1,000 man-hours with a team of reservoir, geological and geophysical specialists at Schlumberger and is an important step toward modelling reservoir development scenarios and attracting future project partners and supporting project..3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Read 12 tweets
Scot126 Profile picture
Dec 8, 2022
$panr $pthrf #panr
Some direct quotes from Canaccord (C) and WH Ireland (WHI) in response to Pantheon Resources' RNS dated 8/12/22.
- Canaccord (C): "We see these results as validations of both Pantheon's internal assessments of the very large scale of the oil-in-place...1/
...resources and the potential well productivity. The reservoir models will significantly aid development
planning, and they are likely to form key elements of any future farm-out discussions."
- C: "We maintain our Speculative Buy rating and NPV10-risked...2/
$panr $pthrf #panr
...target price of 300p and we see the Schlumberger report as an important step in the derisking process."
- C: "Pantheon's internal estimates - not significantly different Resources: Pantheon had estimated 23 bnbbls oil-in-place across the four reservoirs. 3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Read 11 tweets
Scot126 Profile picture
Dec 5, 2022
$pthrf
I note the increasingly desperate Josh Young has today published an article on $panr on Seeking Alpha. In it, he attempts to derive a fair valuation for #panr by using the price bid per acre in the recent State of Alaska North Slope lease auction and applying...1/
...that figure to $panr's total acreage. Deary me, this is facile stuff from Josh, genuinely immature if I'm being blunt. Perhaps Josh is getting grief from MW, Mangrove et al for bouncing them into a non-researched short?!
Here's the thing, if we apply Josh's logic to..2/
#panr
...the dollar amounts bid per acre by Hilcorp (the operator of Prudhoe Bay) on blocks directly adjacent to Prudhoe Bay, Josh would have us value PB's 213,543 acres at a massive $6.04m!!! Yes, that's $6.04m for PB using Josh Young's infantile rationale. 3/
$panr #panr $pthrf
Read 9 tweets

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