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Feb 3 • 10 tweets • 7 min read
2022 is set to be another record-breaking year for heat pumps. Markets have doubled in a number of European countries.

What is driving this?

💶 energy price crisis triggered by the invasion of Ukraine

⛔️ phase-out dates for fossil fuel heating

🧵
1/ First up: Germany experienced 53% market growth in 2022. By 01 January all newly installed heating systems will need to run on >65% renewable energy. This will drive up installation figures even further.
2/ A very mature market for heat pumps is Finland with extraordinary growth over the last years.

In 2022 the heat pump market grew by 50%.
3/ Norway has the highest heat pump penetration in the world with around 2/3 of households now having a heat pump and almost all new heating systems being a heat pump.

In 2022 Norway saw 25% growth in heat pump sales.

And Norway has a very cold climate.

4/ Switzerland has installed heat pumps for a long time and is a very mature market yet still saw 23% growth in 2022.

2/3 of all heating systems sold in Switzerland in 2022 were heat pumps.

5/ Poland has a bad rep in climate policy circles. But things are moving fast in Poland and the market in 2022 is expected to have doubled.

Complete data will be available shortly.

6/ Belgium has been a heat pump laggard.

But in 2022 the market has doubled (!).

7/ France has been Europe's largest market for heat pumps.

In 2022 the market grew by 30%.

lebatimentperformant.fr/actualites/les…
@heatpolicyrich @duncanmgibb @burger_jaap @Andr_Jahn @ThomasNowakEU @energysmartwv @leahstokes @drvolts @DrSimEvans @DoctorVive @andreasgraf @_JulietPhillips @mrMattSimon @AlexSdelaGarza @TrangChuMinh @SominiSengupta
8/ In the Netherlands first figures suggest 37% market growth. Complete data not yet available though.

nieuws.nl/algemeen/20230…

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More from @janrosenow

Jan Rosenow Profile picture
Jan 30
A new paper is being shared widely that seems to show that energy efficiency measures don't have lasting effects.

I have read the paper and find the conclusions puzzling. Let me explain why briefly.
1/ Historic energy demand figures for the UK domestic sector show a clear downward trend in energy use. Data from @beisgovuk. This is despite a growing number of households, a rising population and growing floor area over that period.
2/ Decomposition analysis by Odyssee-Mure shows that the key driver of the reduction has been energy efficiency. This accounts for more homes, more floor area and the weather.
Read 7 tweets
Jan Rosenow Profile picture
Jan 19
With 10m electric vehicles expected to be on UK roads by 2030 integrating them into the electricity system smartly is key to reduce costs, emissions and system benefits.

@beisgovuk @ofgem just published plans for how to achieve this.

🧵
1/ What is smart charging? Smart charging can delay the power demand from EVs to off-peak periods or to times of abundant renewable power, which overall minimises the investment costs for generation capacity, and for the electricity network and reduces carbon dioxide emissions.
2/ What is the UK government's vision for smart charging? This box summarises it nicely - aim is to make smart charging the default rather than the exception.
Read 11 tweets
Jan Rosenow Profile picture
Jan 19
What if we could use the waste heat beneath our feet? District heating offers tremendous potential to do that.

Yesterday I spoke at @thameswater @kpmguk event about this. Great discussion with @SimonVirle @aram_wood @hm_robbo @NinaSkorupska @TomLubbock @KenHunnisett.

🧵
@thameswater @kpmguk @aram_wood @hm_robbo @NinaSkorupska @TomLubbock @KenHunnisett 1/ The panelists agreed that using waste heat and district heating networks have huge potential and offer sizeable energy systems benefits.
2/ Those include:
- integrating a diverse range of zero carbon heat sources such as unavoidable waste heat & renewable energy
- the ability for long-term heat storage
- the high efficiency that can be achieved
- the ability to use district heating for balancing the energy system
Read 6 tweets
Jan Rosenow Profile picture
Dec 14, 2022
Mandating hydrogen-ready boiler has been framed as a 'no-regret option'.

I disagree with that framing and believe it could well be a 'regret option' instead.

Let me explain. 🧵
1/ International experience has shown that in order to phase out fossil fuel heating and to drive the rapid uptake of clean heating technology clear end dates for fossil fuel heating systems are critical. oeko.de/fileadmin/oeko…
2/ Such end dates provide the market with clarity and certainty. It drives investment in clean heating and results in a market shift.

The @IEA recommends to ban the installation of new fossil fuel heating systems already by 2025 (see top right corner of graph below).
Read 13 tweets
Jan Rosenow Profile picture
Dec 14, 2022
The UK government considers mandating hydrogen-ready boilers from 2026.

But they will only be zero carbon if they run on green hydrogen which currently makes up 0.04% of global hydrogen production according to the @IEA.

Is it magical thinking?

🧵
1/ Here is a summary of the UK's plans currently out for consultation. It proposes a requirement that all new domestic boilers be “hydrogen-ready” from 2026.
theguardian.com/environment/20…
2/ UK government does not expect there to be large quantities of low carbon h2 to be available for home heating until the mid-2030s according to the Hydrogen Strategy. By 2035 up to 45 TWh of h2 for heating are expected in the strategy, about 10% of UK domestic heating demand.
Read 17 tweets
Jan Rosenow Profile picture
Dec 12, 2022
HOT OFF THE PRESS: In many European countries we actively disincentivise the switch from fossil to clean heating by taxing energy badly.

Our new paper in Energy Policy @ElsevierEnergy explains how we can change this.

@RegAssistProj @3E_renewables

🧵

authors.elsevier.com/a/1gE3m14YGglo…
1/ To date, only 9 EU Member States have placed a carbon tax on fossil heating fuels. On the other hand, the EU ETS puts a carbon price of electricity. Even where carbon taxes on heating fuels are in place, ETS price is higher than carbon tax rate in all but 1 country.
2/ The price electricity to gas ratio (the most common fossil fuel used for heating in Europe) in many countries is unfavourable and discourages households from switching to a heat pump.
Read 18 tweets

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