Jan Rosenow Profile picture
Vice President & Director @RegAssistProj Fellow @EnergyInstitute Research @ecioxford @cisl_cambridge @SPRU Cohost @WattMattersPod Expert group @wef Board member
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Sep 12 4 tweets 2 min read
"Why are electricity prices so high if renewables break generation records and are so cheap?" I have been asked.

The main reason: Gas still sets the price 63% of the time in wholesale electricity markets in EU27 & >90% in some countries.

The graphic is from the Draghi Report. Image For those wanting to understand why the most expensive generator dispatched sets the price I highly recommend this explainer by @LionHirth hertie-school.org/en/news/detail…
Aug 31 4 tweets 2 min read
I love it when "experts" like Richard make sweeping claims that more wind and solar will result in more outages without ever looking at the real data.

Here's the data for Germany:

Wind + solar had a share of 33% of electricity in 2022. ➡️But there were 43% FEWER interruptions than in 2006 when wind + solar contributed only 5%.Image 1/ This is no different for other countries. Here's data from @CEERenergy on the minutes of interruptions per customer per year (SAIDI). Whilst wind and solar have seen record growth in Europe customer DO NOT experience more interruptions. ceer.eu/publication/7t…Image
Jun 25 10 tweets 4 min read
NEW RESEARCH: What do we do with the gas grid when gas demand drops?

A new regulatory approach is urgently needed to ensure costs for gas grid do not spiral out of control.

@RegAssistProj @heatpolicyrich @CKemfert

Free copy here 👇


Key findings in 🧵. authors.elsevier.com/a/1jJcf9C%7EIu…
Image 1/ Modelling at EU level indicates that gas demand will decline by 71-73% by 2050 as part of the path to net zero climate targets.

Importantly this includes ALL gases including hydrogen and biomethane. Even after considering alternative gases overall gas demand still declines by more than 2/3.Image
May 27 13 tweets 4 min read
How to reduce the vast amount of operational emissions from buildings from heating, cooling and appliances?

Today I delivered a scene setting presentation at a United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change event. Some key takeaways from my presentation in this 🧵 Image 1/ Until recently operational emissions from buildings were the elephant in the room. This is changing now with more attention being paid to them. Image
Apr 26 13 tweets 4 min read
"Will we be warm?" I was asked last night by a friend thinking of installing a heat pump in an old not well insulated Victorian house.

My response: "Yes you will."

Heat pumps can work in any building if sized, designed and installed correctly. 🧵

carbonbrief.org/factcheck-18-m…
Image 1/ Many uninsulated homes and buildings are already heated to comfortable temperatures with heat pumps, as shown across multiple case studies, including an uninsulated stone church. isoenergy.co.uk/projects#sort=…
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Mar 16 7 tweets 3 min read
Energy transition critics often point to primary energy use to demonstrate that it's going to be impossible.

But 72% of the global energy input is currently lost after conversion.

The problem we're trying to solve here is a lot smaller than primary energy use might suggest.🧵 Image 1/ The future energy system will be characterised by a lot more "electricity-only" renewables (mainly solar and wind). Many of the conversion losses are currently due conversion losses at the electricity generation stage. This will no longer be anywhere near as significant in a system dominated by solar and wind.
Mar 2 5 tweets 2 min read
Imagine if heat pumps could make:

🍫chocolate
🥃whiskey
🧀cheese
🍺beer

Good news is they can.

And they decarbonise industrial heat at the same time.

A 🧵 with examples from around the world. Image 1/ Here are some real world examples starting with beer brewing.
Feb 27 11 tweets 4 min read
BREAKING: Heat pump sales in 14 European countries fell by around 5% overall in 2023 compared to 2022.

➡️ Why did this happen?
➡️ What is the outlook?
➡️ How can policy revert this trend?

A 🧵 with some thoughts.

ehpa.org/news-and-resou… 1/ 2022 was a record year for heat pump sales driven by sky high gas prices and the war on Ukraine.

@duncanmgibb and I @RegAssistProj wrote about this here 👇

carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how…
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Feb 5 10 tweets 3 min read
Over the weekend we heard that the UK government was considering scrapping the Clean Heat Market Mechanism (CHMM).

How important is this?

>1/3 of the 2028 heat pump target is supposed to be achieved through the CHMM. Scrapping it leaves a large hole.

A few thoughts in this🧵 Image 1/ Heating is a major contributor to the UK's carbon emissions. Without decarbonising heating it is physically impossible to meet the UK's climate targets. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/61d450eb…
Image
Jan 27 18 tweets 3 min read
A new paper on "hydrogen-based heat pumps" is making the rounds.

What do I make of it I was asked.

A 🧵 with some thoughts.

nature.com/articles/s4159…
Image 1/ First of all there isn't a good description of what a hydrogen based heat pump is in the paper as they define it. A little digging on the website of Sheffield University where the authors are based reveals this:
Jan 22 5 tweets 1 min read
The energy minister, Lord Callanan, has accused "vested interests" of "funding campaigns of misinformation" about heat pumps. We have seen this time and time again when it comes to clean energy technologies.

Will it work? A short 🧵

news.sky.com/story/campaign… 1/ In the short term it will slow down the transition. In the long term it won't stop it. We have seen the same during past transitions and many of the technologies we use and take for granted today faced resistance from incumbents back in the day.
Dec 15, 2023 11 tweets 2 min read
NEW PAPER: Why the 'Fabric First' dogma is out of date and needs a radical rethink.

With our paper we want to provoke and start a discussion rather than provide all the answers.

More in this 🧵

Paper with @ecioxford @UCL_Energy @NTUadbe in @BuildingsCities Image 1/ ‘Fabric first’ describes an approach to improving the thermal performance of residential buildings by prioritising the improvement of fabric.

It has historically been widely advocated and is deeply engrained in the debate about building decarbonisation.
Nov 8, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
Have you also read “EV sales are slowing “?

It’s misinformation. In Europe year-on-year BEV sales are 63% higher than last year between January and August.

Chart by @visaskn Image 1/ Also in China sales are up.
Oct 16, 2023 7 tweets 2 min read
To decarbonise industry, we must decarbonise heat.

About half of all industry process heat is below 200C.

Industrial heat pumps using waste heat are well-placed to provide heat at this temperature saving energy and reducing carbon emissions. Image 1/ Here are some real world examples starting with beer brewing.
Oct 14, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
Our current energy system is incredibly wasteful. About 2/3 of primary energy is lost in conversion processes.

The good news is that the potential for energy savings is huge too through improved energy efficiency and electrification.

Below is the example of the US. Image 1/ Electrification is energy efficiency.
Oct 4, 2023 15 tweets 6 min read
Here's an update of my regular analysis of heat pump annual running costs vs gas boilers in the UK.

With existing offerings you could more than halve your heating running costs today.

Yes you heard correct - more than halve.

A 🧵 with the calculations and results. Image 1/ Since 01 Oct electricity price cap is 27p/kWh, gas 7p/kWh. I crunched numbers in this thread a few weeks ago. The result is that running costs of heat pumps are lower with an SCoP of >2.9 with those prices compared to a gas boiler at 85% efficiency.


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Sep 18, 2023 8 tweets 2 min read
NEW RESEARCH: Study number 44 shows: Hydrogen should only play a limited & complimentary role to decarbonise heating.

Whole-energy system optimisation model by @imperialcollege suggests 83-97% of UK heating from heat pumps is lowest cost pathway to zero emissions heating.

🧵 Image 1/ This was my original meta-review for @Joule_CP . It identified 32 independent studies with none of them showing a significant role for hydrogen for heating homes.

Sep 15, 2023 12 tweets 3 min read
Our heat pump efficiency and cold weather paper caused a bit of a stir this week.

Quite a few people in the UK asked me "but what about the running costs?"

I crunched the latest cost numbers for you. Result: With a very efficient heat pump you could save up to £259/yr.

🧵 Image 1/ The average gas demand in the UK is 12,100 kWh of which 2.4% for cooking.



assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
gov.uk/government/sta…
Aug 17, 2023 13 tweets 3 min read
HOT OFF THE PRESS: The question of how to optimally decarbonise buildings remains a source of fierce debate.

Our new paper on how to strike 'optimal' balance between heat demand reduction and heat supply decarbonisation is out now.

@SamHamels @Economics_UGent @ecioxford

🧵 Image 1/ Around a third of the world's final energy is consumed directly in buildings, mainly for space heating and hot water, and more than 64 % of this is currently provided by fossil fuels. It is therefore impossible to meet climate goals without decarbonising the buildings sector and especially heating.
Aug 16, 2023 12 tweets 5 min read
With increasing temperatures cooling demand will grow.

Data shows that in Texas every 1C increase above 24C drives 4% increase in electricity demand.

Often grid operators bring on carbon-intensive generators to meet that demand.

Good news is there are solutions to this. 🧵 Image 1/ As @FrediOtto and her team have shown "every heatwave in the world is now made stronger and more likely to happen because of human-caused climate change".
Aug 12, 2023 7 tweets 2 min read
Which form of electricity generation is worst for the environment?

This recent meta-review led by @BenjaminSovaco1 clearly shows:

Fossil electricity has much bigger environmental impacts than renewables.

🧵 Image 1/ Of course every single electricity production technology has environmental and social impacts. There is no electricity production technology that has zero impacts.