Let's now review a series of stats showing just remarkable the US economy is right now.
US economic recovery from COVID under @POTUS has been the best in the G7. 2/
@POTUS 33.8m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton Obama
12.1m jobs = 2 yrs Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs Bush Bush Trump
6 times more jobs created in 2 yrs under Biden then under last 3 GOP Presidents *COMBINED* 3/
@POTUS A reminder that Trump was the first President since Hoover to have net job loss on their watch. 4/
@POTUS Since 1989 and a new age of globalization began 48m jobs have been created in US. 46m of those, 96%, have been created under Democratic Presidents.
One party has repeatedly moved us forward. The other repeatedly has failed to do its part. 5/
@POTUS While economy has repeatedly grown under Dems, don't think people realize how bad it's been under Rs.
3 straight recessions, incl Great Recession. Averaged only 10k jobs PER MONTH over 16 yrs. Last month = 5 years of GOP job creation. 5 yrs. 6/
@POTUS New businesses continue to be created at very elevated levels. Incredible sign of health and vitality of US economy, "can do spirit" of American people. 7/
@POTUS Wage growth remains at very elevated levels. In 2022 due to across the board strong wage growth real earning were positive, even with Putin's efforts to cripple West/world w/rising energy prices. 8/
@POTUS The uninsured rate is lowest in American history right now. Incredible achievement by the Democrats despite ferocious opposition. Imagine what that number would be it FL, TX expanded Medicaid. 9/
@POTUS There are still about 2 job openings per unemployed persons in the US, a remarkable stat. Many states have their lowest unemployment rates ever recorded, and are desperate for more workers.
Biden boom!!!! 10/
@POTUS The last 3 Dem Presidents saw the deficit drop on their watch. Clinton got us to surplus.
Last 3 Rs have seen the deficit explode on their watch. Trump's fiscal track record among worst in American history. 11/
OMG @YouTube my video about the 2024 election was just taken down because I criticized Robert Kennedy for his anti-vaxx views and the impact they would have if implemented. You have to be kidding me.
Heading into Election night, Trump:
- is not leading in the battleground early vote
- is not leading in the polls or w/most forecasters
- did not raise more money, have more volunteers, or have anywhere as big crowds as Harris
There is no data right now suggesting he's winning
Some Election Day thoughts:
- Ds been overperforming since Dobbs, likely to do so again today. Dobbs before/after moment in US politics.
- Early vote, polling got better for Harris this week. Ds enter E-D in stronger battleground EV position than 2020. Encouraging sign. 1/
- The money, sweat and power of Dem grassroots needs far more attention. Dems now have a structural hard dollar advantage up/down the ticket, giving us bigger, more muscular campaigns w/vastly more volunteers.
VP @KamalaHarris has just turned in one of the greatest performances by an American politician in modern history. So many things could have tripped her up. None of them did. Extraordinary candidate, extraordinary campaign. She will be a great President for all of us. 3/
Via TargetEarly, it is now official - Dems head into E-Day in a stronger position in the battleground early vote than 2020. More D post-Dobbs overperformance.
Rs big campaign to make gains in the early vote has failed, and their EV "memos" are just pure bullshit.
Cannot overstate how delusional and full of lying and fuckery Trump/right spin has been:
- flooding the zone with red wave polls
- outright lies about the early vote
- memory holing 2 1/2 years of GOP poll underperformance incl Trump
- Polymarket Voodoo!
I go deeper into latest polling/early vote data below.
The bottom line - the election is clearly breaking towards us now. Harris just had best week of polling. Early vote is good, keeps getting better. Red wave polls sign of Trumpian desperation.
Early vote notes, via TargetEarly:
- Ds running much better in battleground than natl early vote (=better campaign)
- Ds running even w/Rs in battleground vs. 2020
- Ds running ahead of 2020 in GA/MI/NE-2/WI
- Ds closing gap in AZ/NC/NV/PA
Rs not winning battleground early vote
And a general reminder that Rs would not be flooding the zone with dozens of polls and creating betting market voodoo if they believed they were winning the election and everything was fine. You only cheat when you are losing.
When I say AZ/NC/NV/PA are closing the gap I mean against how we are performed there vs 2020. While we have a lead in the raw vote in PA, we are not performing there as well as we did in 2020. All of this data is vs. 2020.
Red wave 2024 update:
- 70+ polls in the averages, 31 right-aligned groups have released polls since August
- Polymarket, Elon 2024 escalations
- Late last week they worked the natl polling average, moved it down, started spinning early vote hard 👇 1/ hopiumchronicles.com/p/vp-harris-an…
Part of their new efforts to drive the natl polling average down is addition of a TIPP daily tracking poll. Predictably, and perhaps comically, it showed the race - all of a sudden! - breaking to Trump after 6 weeks of a remarkably stable race and a bad media week for Trump 2/
Last Wed I did a polling roundup. Polling continued to be remarkably stable. 538 natl average actually ticked up for us that week. We were +4 and stable in Econ/YouGov, +5 in Marist, +4 in Morning Consult, NYT, +3 CBS, ABC. Steady as she goes. 3/ hopiumchronicles.com/p/2-new-polls-…