Thread by @witte_sergei

A little note on the state of Ukrainian manpower, suggesting, yet again, that Ukrainian losses are far higher than reported in the west and have left Ukraine extremely depleted and thinly stretched.

Everything here comes from Ukrainian sources. (1)

Early this week, as the battle for Ugledar intensified, it was reported that Ukraine’s attacking efforts on the northern axis would be paused so that reserves could be transferred to Ugledar. Note, these axes are on opposite ends of the contact line. (2)

This indicates that Ukraine currently lacks both an accessible strategic reserve as well as operational reserves on the southern Donetsk axis. They had to pull troops from a different active axis to reinforce Ugledar. (3)

Additionally, in the last few days, Russian troops began advancing from Kreminna towards Lyman, indicating that this transfer of forces did in fact meaningfully denude Ukrainian combat power in the north. (4)

Additionally, it is known that Ukraine is holding what strategic reserves it has to accumulate forces for an attempted counteroffensive against the Crimean land bridge, but now UA sources claim that military police and border guards will be needed to flesh out this force. (5)

Meanwhile, Ukraine has famously gone to a total conscription regime covering all prime age males, amid widespread complaints of a failing mobilization program. (6)

The need to reinforce existing fronts is so high that they now claim that men are being fed directly to the front with minimal training. They are shoring up paper strength with replacements rather than rotating units out. (7)

Overall, we get a picture of a force that is stretched to the limit, with insufficient reserves - forcing them to shift units around among active sectors of front, while desperately attempting to create new units sui generis to launch counteroffensive. (8)