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Feb 4 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Balloons have no heat signature so infrared-guided missiles won’t work. Radar guided missiles also appear to have problems because of the balloon’s movement. Will be fascinating to see how USAF eventually takes it down (which they will).
To be more specific on heat signature: “IR signature is minimal”
This is fascinating. The balloon’s slow speed can paradoxically make it harder to target with radar.
I’m also curious as to why laser designation isn’t an option. Distance to target? Limitations on the munitions themselves?
Come on; there has to be a infrared / heat seeking munition expert on here who can clear this one up.
It was a missile (and judging from images, fired from an F-22). Curious as to which missile was employed. F-22 carries AIM-9 & AIM-120 air to air missiles.
Significance of shooting it down in territorial waters.
Maybe the PRC’s aim is to steadily shave hours off F-22 airframes and deplete the US’ stock of air to air missiles, one extremely slow balloon at a time #attrition
It was an AIM-9X missile. So infrared was just fine.

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More from @shashj

Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 2
“The government has been monitoring a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon…hovering over the northern U.S. for the past few days…military… leaders have discussed shooting it out of the sky, according to two U.S. officials & a senior defense official.” nbcnews.com/politics/natio…
Everyone's a superhero
Everyone's a Captain Kirk
With orders to identify
To clarify and classify
Ok, I’m now heavily invested in the story of this inflatable Chinese Mathias Rust tribute balloon
Read 21 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 1
“Ukrainian intel estimates Russia now has more than 320,000 soldiers in the country — roughly twice the size of Moscow’s initial invasion force. Western officials and military analysts have said that Moscow also has 150,000 to 250,000 soldiers in reserve” nytimes.com/live/2023/02/0…
“Moscow could be preparing to open a new front, pushing across the Russian border to recapture territory in Sumy or Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine after being driven out months ago, according to Ukrainian officials and military analysts” nytimes.com/live/2023/02/0…
If correct, this feels rather premature. As @KofmanMichael has repeatedly warned, Russian tactical gains now are coming at the cost of losses that are weakening the force down the line. If you were Ukrainian army, you’d probably want Ru expending combat power now vs April/May?
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Jan 31
👀 "RUSI has had access to a range of academic polling conducted on behalf of the Kremlin relating to the war in Ukraine" rusi.org/explore-our-re…
"The Cosmopolitans, constituting around 12–15% of the population, are viewed as forming the core of the active opposition [to the Kremlin], with just under half of this group assessed as having personal connections to Ukraine." rusi.org/explore-our-re…
"Russia’s Ura-Patriots are vocally criticising the conduct of the war, but their criticism is largely directed at certain commanders, local administrators’ handling of mobilisation, or even the attitudes of wider society. They have not yet turned their ire on ... Putin."
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Jan 31
Compute is eating the world. “almost all recent breakthroughs in the field globally have come from large companies, in large part because they have the computing power” economist.com/business/2023/…
“Chinese labs appear to have a big lead in the subdiscipline of computer vision … where they are responsible for the largest share of the most highly cited papers…the top five computer-vision teams in the world are all Chinese” economist.com/business/2023/…
“The reason that, at least so far, no [large language] model enjoys an unassailable advantage is that AI knowledge diffuses quickly. The researchers from all the competing labs “all hang out with each other”, says David Ha of Stability AI” economist.com/business/2023/…
Read 5 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Jan 27
Are there strong arguments against a country in Ukraine’s position using cluster munitions? It’s on their own soil, there’s already a lot of unexploded ordnance and the stakes are exceptionally high. Certainly a debate that’s been going on for months.
A series of informed views against:
A view on military effectiveness:
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Jan 25
“US and Western officials ... In recent weeks … have begun suggesting that Ukrainian forces cut their losses in Bakhmut…and focus instead on planning an offensive in the south. That was part of a message delivered by three top Biden officials who traveled to Kyiv last week.”
“The push for Ukraine to shift its battlefield tactics comes amid signs that Russian President Vladimir Putin is weighing making a big move in the next several weeks to regain the initiative in the war, officials familiar with the intelligence told CNN.” edition.cnn.com/2023/01/24/pol…
“There are also indications that Putin is considering another troop mobilization of as many as 200,000 men, US and Western officials familiar with the intelligence told CNN.” edition.cnn.com/2023/01/24/pol…
Read 4 tweets

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