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Feb 4 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
#NEW @CoreLogicInc tells @FortuneMagazine that 391 major housing markets have "high" or "very high" odds of posting a year-over-year home price decline in November 2023.

The January analysis examined 392 markets.

Link: fortune.com/2023/02/04/hou…
Back in November, 354 markets were at "high" or "very high" risk.
Back in October, 335 markets were at "high" or "very high" risk.
Back in August, 125 markets were at "high" or "very high" risk.
Back in July, 98 markets were at "high" or "very high" risk.
Back in June, 45 markets were at "high" or "very high" risk.
And back in May, just 26 housing markets fell into those "high" or "very high" risk camps.
While CoreLogic now finds that 99% of regional markets are at "high" or "very high" risk of falling home prices between Nov. 2022 and Nov. 2023, the company still projects a 2.8% uptick in national home prices between Nov. 2022 and Nov. 2023.

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More from @NewsLambert

Lance Lambert Profile picture
Feb 4
If there's a regional housing market you'd like me to pull, holler below 🏡📊
Boston Image
Phoenix Image
Read 69 tweets
Lance Lambert Profile picture
Feb 4
Among the nation's 400 largest housing markets, 15 markets are above pre-pandemic (i.e. 2019) inventory levels.

I'll thread those markets below. Image
Inventory in Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX is +11.03% from Jan. 2019. Image
In January 2023, Boise inventory was 9.37% higher than in January 2019.

And it was 130% higher than in January 2022. Image
Read 8 tweets
Lance Lambert Profile picture
Feb 3
On paper, January inventory levels were tight.

Just 15 of the nation's 400 largest housing markets are above 2019 inventory levels.
That's a regression from December 👇
I’ll do inventory day tomorrow 🏡📊
Read 4 tweets
Lance Lambert Profile picture
Feb 1
We're in a bifurcated housing market correction.

San Francisco is down 10.5% from its peak.

Chicago is down just 0.1%. fortune.com/2023/02/01/hou… Image
Here's home price data through December for the country's 150 largest housing markets.

Data via @JBREC
fortune.com/2023/02/01/hou…
The Pandemic Housing Boom saw markets like Phoenix and Austin get detached from underlying fundamentals.

Once remote migration slowed and mortgage rates spiked, those "bubbly" or "frothy" boomtowns slipped into sharp corrections.
fortune.com/2023/02/01/hou… Image
Read 4 tweets
Lance Lambert Profile picture
Feb 1
let's see what big dawg powell has to say 🏦🏡
federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm
he's speaking now
Housing market activity "continues to weaken, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates," says Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Read 7 tweets
Lance Lambert Profile picture
Dec 10, 2022
February 2022: 100% of homebuilders were raising home prices.

December 2022: Essentially, 0% of builders are raising prices.

@RickPalaciosJr tells @leadlagreport
"The Fed is using housing as the sacrificial lamb to slow everything down" @RickPalaciosJr tells @leadlagreport
Builders are cutting home prices where they have "standing inventory" and a lot of it is "entry-level" @RickPalaciosJr tells @leadlagreport
Read 13 tweets

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