In today's #vatnik soup, I'll introduce an American lobbyist and political consultant Paul Manafort. Manafort was a long-time Republican Party campaign consultant, but is best known for his connections to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska & for leading the 2016 Trump campaign.
1/21
Paul has participated and campaigned for several prominent American Republicans, including Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, Bob Dole and of course Donald Trump.
2/21
But he's also been involved in lobbying various other shady figures throughout his career. It seems that he would accept almost anyone as a client, as long as they were paying enough.
3/21
In 1980, Manafort founded a DC-based lobbying firm Black, Manafort & Stone (BMSK) together with Charles R. Black Jr. and Roger Stone. The latter is well-known for his flirting with prominent QAnon figures and he also worked in the Trump campaign until Aug, 2015.
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In 1985, BMSK signed a 600 000 USD contract with Jonas Savimbi, who was the leader of the Angolan rebel group UNITA. The firm branded Savimbi as anti-communist and secured aid of hundreds of millions of dollars from the Congress to him.
5/21
Manafort also lobbied a Filipino dictator and kleptocrat Ferdinand Marcos. For this, BMSK earned a annual sum of 950 000 USD. Marcos's reign was infamous for its brutality and corruption - Filipino organization ...
6/21
... Presidential Commission on Good Government later revealed that Marcos and his family had stolen 5 to 10 billion USD from the Central Bank of the Philippines.
Another controversial figure Manafort and BMSK lobbied was the president of Zaire, Mobutu Sese Seko.
7/21
This deal secured the firm 1 000 000 USD annually. Under his kleptocratic rule, the nation suffered from massive inflation and widespread human rights violations. Sese Seko embezzled something between 4 and 15 billion USd during his rule.
8/21
In Dec, 2004, Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska arranged a meeting between Manafort and Ukraine's richest oligarch, Rinat Akhmetov. His job was to help Akhmetov's holding firm, System Capital Management, to survive the political crisis after the Orange Revolution.
9/21
Manafort later brought Akhmetov to Washington DC to meet with prominent US officials like Dick Cheney. Akhmetov allegedly has connections to organized crime, and before this he had fled to Monaco after being accused of murder in Ukraine.
10/21
From 2004 until 2010, he worked as an adviser for pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych and for his political party Party of Regions. Between 2007 and 2008 Paul was involved in various investment projects in Ukraine while working for Deripaska, after which they signed another deal.
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This deal earned him 10 million USD annually & his job was to promote Russian interests in Europe and in the US. In 2010 Deripaska loaned 10 million USD to Manafort which he allegedly never repaid. Even though Manafort had earned a lot of money from his lobbying efforts,...
12/21
..., he was massively indebted: as of Feb, 2017, Manafort had approximately 12 million USD in home equity loans outstanding. NBC News also found documents that showed 27 million USD loans from two Cyprus entities to a company connected to Manafort.
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In 2014 Manafort had big role in creation of the political party Opposition Bloc, a pro-Russian political party, in Ukraine. This party was generally perceived as a successor for Yanukovych's Party of Regions.
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National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine claimed in 2016 that they had found records that show 12,7 million USD cash payments designated for Manafort. This money came from the Party of Regions and the payments were allegedly done between 2007 and 2012.
15/21
Leaked texts between Paul and his daughter revealed, that he supported the violent opposition of Euromaidan protestors, which resulted to several deaths from the bullets of Berkut riot police.
Paul worked closely with ex-GRU employee Konstantin Kilimnik.
16/21
Kilimnik and Manafort helped Yanukovych to win the presidency in 2010. Kilimnik and Manafort also assisted several pro-Russian Ukrainian and Russian oligarchs and tried to ensure that Yanukovych would sever ties to the US and Europe.
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FBI started investigating Manafort in 2014. Manafort also became a person of interest in the FBI counterintel probe of Russian interference in the 2016 US election.The US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence concluded in Aug, 2020 that while working as Trump's campaign...18/21
...manager, "Manafort worked with Kilimnik starting in 2016 on narratives that sought to undermine evidence that Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. election". During the Trump campaign, Manafort shared information secretly with Kilimnik, who then shared it with the Russians.19/21
In Aug, 2018, Manafort was convicted by the Eastern District of Virginia on five counts of tax fraud. Robert Mueller's office advised that he should receive a sentence between 20 to 24 years, but in Mar, 2019 he was sentenced to just 47 months in prison.
20/21
District of Columbia convicted Manafort to additional 43 months in jail. He was jailed between 2018-2020, after which he was released to home confinement due to COVID-19 concerns. In Dec, 2020 Trump issued Manafort a full pardon and he was released.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll cover the agenda-setting and flood of disinformation that spread on X and other platforms right after Charlie Kirk’s assassination. It’s far from the first or last time a tragedy has been weaponized for political purposes.
1/18
Every major political event, especially those involving violence, attracts massive attention. In the immediate aftermath, reliable information is scarce, making it highly vulnerable to both coordinated and improvised disinformation campaigns.
2/18
As I’ve mentioned in my previous soups and lectures, in disinformation campaigns, being first with a narrative is crucial, as people often remember the first version best — psychology studies show it sets the mental schema, and later updates rarely overwrite it.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce American social media personality David Freeman, AKA Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman). He’s best known for spreading political disinformation on X and shamelessly sucking up to Trump, Putin, and other authoritarian leaders.
1/22
David is a textbook example of someone profiting from MAGA grievance politics. He uses extreme, provocative language to farm engagement on X and never hesitates to flatter anyone who might give him more exposure — or money.
2/22
But David wasn’t always like this. At some point, in his mid-40s, he even tried a real job: he trained to become a cop. He spent three years with the Metro Transit PD, but after that he either got fired or quit, and never looked back.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Russian-Estonian businessman, Oleg Ossinovski. He is best-known for his deep ties to Russian rail and energy networks, shady cross-border dealings, and for channeling his wealth into Estonian politics.
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Oleg made his fortune via Spacecom Trans & Skinest Rail, both deeply tied to Russia’s rail system. Most of this is through Globaltrans Investments PLC, a Cyprus-based firm with 62% held via Spacecom and tens of millions in yearly profits.
2/14
Ossinovski’s Russian-linked ventures made him Estonia’s richest man in 2014, with an estimated fortune of ~€300M. His business empire stretched across railways, oil via Alexela shares, and Russian bitumen imports from Help-Oil, a supplier to the Defense Ministry.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Swiss/French writer, Alain Bonnet, aka Alain Soral (@officielsoral). He’s best known for his rabid antisemitism and for his pathetic support for all the worst authoritarian regimes from Russia to North Korea.
1/22
Alain’s childhood was problematic, as his father has been characterized as a “narcissistic pervert” who beat his children and did jail time for fraud. Alain himself has said he was “programmed to be a monster.” Born Alain Bonnet, he took the stage name of his sister,…
2/22
… actress Agnès Soral. She wasn’t too happy about this, commenting “How would you like to be called Agnès Hitler?”. Like many grifters, he became a pick-up/seduction artist writer, à la late Gonzalo Lira, writing books and even making a B-movie, “Confessions d’un dragueur”.
3/22
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll explain the Alaska Fiasco and how it marks the peak of Trump’s two-year betrayal of Ukraine. What was sold as “peace talks” turned into a spectacle of weakness, humiliation, empty promises, and photo-ops that handed Putin exactly what he wanted.
1/24
Let’s start with the obvious: Trump desperately wants the gold medal of the Nobel Peace Prize, mainly because Obama got one. That’s why he’s now LARPing as a “peace maker” in every conflict: Israel-Gaza, Azerbaijan-Armenia, India-Pakistan, and of course Ukraine-Russia.
2/24
Another theory is that Putin holds kompromat — compromising material such as videos or documents — that would put Trump in an extremely bad light. Some have suggested it could be tied to the Epstein files or Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential election.
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll talk about engagement farming: a cynical social media tactic to rack up likes, shares, and comments. From rage farming to AI-powered outrage factories, engagement farming is reshaping online discourse and turning division into profit.
1/23
Engagement farming is a social media tactic aimed at getting maximum likes, shares, and comments, with truth being optional. It thrives on provocative texts, images, or videos designed to spark strong reactions, boost reach, and turn online outrage into clicks and cash.
2/23
One subset of engagement farming is rage farming: a tactic built to provoke strong negative emotions through outrageous or inflammatory claims. By triggering anger or moral outrage, these posts often generate 100s or even 1,000s of heated comments, amplifying their reach.