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Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
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Feb 5 • 11 tweets • 7 min read
So, what’s up with the European leopard initiative ?

This Spiegel article claimed many other nations wouldn’t want to deliver after all. So I tried to find out what’s the status.

🐆🧵
spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…
The Spiegel article claims that although Poland has promised to deliver 14 leo tanks, it’s not willing to contribute to the training or maintenance.

But @laurapitel @HenryJFoy @maxseddon reported in Financial Times on 2 Feb that training will start in 🇵🇱&🇩🇪 next week
(Link to the FT article: ft.com/content/f7704b…)

Spiegel says the Netherlands hadn’t given a definite answer yet and idk exactly what’s the status so would appreciate additional info. On 19 Jan Dutch DefMin said 🇳🇱 could *pay* for leos for 🇺🇦

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Spiegel itself reports today that Portugal has promised to contribute some tanks, although exact number hasn’t been confirmed yet - apparently the maintenance status is an issue (like in Spain too).

spiegel.de/ausland/portug…
Denmark is now eyeing 80 of 99 old Leopard 1s which had been sold off to a German company and have been rusting in storage but could potentially be bought back and fixed to be combat-ready for Ukraine. But esp ammunition is a big❓

berlingske.dk/samfund/tyskla…
FYI @spiegelonline the Norwegian government has made an official statement to the effect that Norway will contribute. Exact number of tanks that Norway could deliver not specified.

regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/str…
Swedish DefMin has so far said Sweden doesn’t rule out also contributing at a later point. Sweden has already pledged 50 CV-90 armoured combat vehicles (NOT tanks 😉), which will complement MBTs and also play an important role.

dn.se/sverige/regeri…
The Spiegel article claims Finland isn’t going to deliver at all. I have so far not heard any official statement to the effect & 🇫🇮 Pres @niinisto has said that Finland would contribute, albeit in limited numbers because of the direct border with Russia & pending NATO membership
🇸🇪&🇫🇮 signed a bilateral MoU in Ramstein on using the joint operational planning of their Armed Forces so that Finland can keep delivering to Ukraine despite its own needs and Sweden will help out. Sounds like a potential Ringtausch scheme to me.

defmin.fi/files/5623/FIS…
Apropos Ringtausch: in Switzerland the idea is being debated that some of the 96 Swiss leopards could be sold to countries like Finland and Poland, to support their deliveries to Ukraine from their own stock. The motion was initially rejected but let’s see
aargauerzeitung.ch/aargau/kanton-…
To conclude: looks like things are moving and several leopard user countries are looking at ways to contribute. Why the preparation wasn’t started much earlier I don’t know.

The @derspiegel article seems to be partly inaccurate or at least to leave out quite many developments.

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More from @minna_alander

Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Feb 4
I literally didn’t. I was predicting that Germany will deliver and that it’s only a matter of time. Where I was wrong was that I expected Germany to give green light to others at the Ramstein meeting.

I’m on record on this on German, Finnish and Swedish media. Facts.
And on Twitter
Liebe Deutschen, hier gern zuhören. Es hilft auch, in Threads alle Tweets zu lesen, um das komplette Bild zu bekommen.

radioeins.de/programm/sendu…
Read 6 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Feb 4
This is quite the difficult situation for Finland, where it’s been utmost priority to keep the details of military aid to Ukraine secret. The same applies (all the more so) for the leopard tanks. 🇫🇮 MoD will be very reluctant to give an exact number - esp before it’s done
No official statement has been made so far apart from 🇫🇮 President & Defence Minister both saying that Finland would participate in the leopard initiative but can’t deliver a large number of tanks due to own needs (1340km border with Russia)
Here’s a thread I wrote explaining the domestic debate.

Important to note: it was never an official position. An an op-ed by 2 MPs arguing in favour of a European leopard coalition (& 🇫🇮 contributing in limited numbers) was interpreted abroad to mean 🇫🇮 is leading the initiative
Read 9 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Feb 1
Interesting to see what people made of this article by @rajan_menon_ & @DanDePetris, depending on their subjective POV on the feasibility of European strategic autonomy/ sovereignty.

IMO it has good ideas but overlooks some structural path dependencies:
foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/30/nat…
GDP & economic performance has very little to do with actual military capability, as has been demonstrated by Germany. Contrary to popular belief, money doesn’t solve everything if there’s no political will to spend it on the right things and a guiding strategic vision.
EU-Europe consists of 27 separate states, most of which don’t trust each other enough to enable the type of defence specialisation that would theoretically make sense. So each little country wants to keep up national capabilities in every domain, even if in very small numbers.
Read 12 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Jan 31
Lessons about Finnish culture:

The curious case of the free buckets

For some reason Finns love free buckets and will queue for them whenever available. In fact, it’s really the only real way to obtain a bucket. Just buying one is lame.
Whoops
Resuming actual work now. Just have to share this piece of art.
Read 9 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Jan 30
What does it mean to be a smaller neighbour of Russia ?

Some insights from a 🇫🇮 perspective: That there’s no equality in the relationship. Even if peaceful neighbourly relations are a vital interest for you, for Russia it’s nice to have at best & irrelevant in the big picture
Although your own security outlook depends on Russia’s behaviour as a neighbour, you don’t have much of an impact on it. As much as Finland and Norway invested in good relations with Russia, when it fits whatever bigger game Russia thinks it’s playing, under the bus 🇫🇮&🇳🇴 go
Essentially, what Russia wants to believe it’s up against are the US, the EU and to some extent NATO (of which it has a weirdly, and even kind of flatteringly, exaggerated and quite unrealistic interpretation that fits the alleged threat perception).
Read 8 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Jan 23
Welcome to my seminar “introduction into Berlinology”, lesson 1.

Today the 🇩🇪 govt spokesperson said “the federal government does not exclude the possibility of delivering leopard tanks. It just hasn’t decided yet, whether it will do so.”

spiegel.de/politik/deutsc… Image
What do we make of it ?

In classic mixed messaging, leaving everyone deeply baffled, FM Baerbock said yesterday on 🇫🇷 tv that Germany would not block others from delivering leopards. But it remained unclear whether she spoke for the whole government.

handelsblatt.com/regierungsspre… Image
Govt spokesperson, when asked about Baerbock’s statement, answered: “if such a request was made to Germany, which is not the case atm, there are processes to answer such a request. And we all stick to them.”

This means: no, Baerbock did not speak for the whole government. Image
Read 11 tweets

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