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Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
@minna_alander
Feb 5, 2023 • 11 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
So, what’s up with the European leopard initiative ?

This Spiegel article claimed many other nations wouldn’t want to deliver after all. So I tried to find out what’s the status.

🐆🧵
spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…
The Spiegel article claims that although Poland has promised to deliver 14 leo tanks, it’s not willing to contribute to the training or maintenance.

But @laurapitel @HenryJFoy @maxseddon reported in Financial Times on 2 Feb that training will start in 🇵🇱&🇩🇪 next week
(Link to the FT article: ft.com/content/f7704b…)

Spiegel says the Netherlands hadn’t given a definite answer yet and idk exactly what’s the status so would appreciate additional info. On 19 Jan Dutch DefMin said 🇳🇱 could *pay* for leos for 🇺🇦

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Spiegel itself reports today that Portugal has promised to contribute some tanks, although exact number hasn’t been confirmed yet - apparently the maintenance status is an issue (like in Spain too).

spiegel.de/ausland/portug…
Denmark is now eyeing 80 of 99 old Leopard 1s which had been sold off to a German company and have been rusting in storage but could potentially be bought back and fixed to be combat-ready for Ukraine. But esp ammunition is a big❓

berlingske.dk/samfund/tyskla…
FYI @spiegelonline the Norwegian government has made an official statement to the effect that Norway will contribute. Exact number of tanks that Norway could deliver not specified.

regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/str…
Swedish DefMin has so far said Sweden doesn’t rule out also contributing at a later point. Sweden has already pledged 50 CV-90 armoured combat vehicles (NOT tanks 😉), which will complement MBTs and also play an important role.

dn.se/sverige/regeri…
The Spiegel article claims Finland isn’t going to deliver at all. I have so far not heard any official statement to the effect & 🇫🇮 Pres @niinisto has said that Finland would contribute, albeit in limited numbers because of the direct border with Russia & pending NATO membership
🇸🇪&🇫🇮 signed a bilateral MoU in Ramstein on using the joint operational planning of their Armed Forces so that Finland can keep delivering to Ukraine despite its own needs and Sweden will help out. Sounds like a potential Ringtausch scheme to me.

defmin.fi/files/5623/FIS…
Apropos Ringtausch: in Switzerland the idea is being debated that some of the 96 Swiss leopards could be sold to countries like Finland and Poland, to support their deliveries to Ukraine from their own stock. The motion was initially rejected but let’s see
aargauerzeitung.ch/aargau/kanton-…
To conclude: looks like things are moving and several leopard user countries are looking at ways to contribute. Why the preparation wasn’t started much earlier I don’t know.

The @derspiegel article seems to be partly inaccurate or at least to leave out quite many developments.

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More from @minna_alander

Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Apr 20
Interesting interview with the new @Finnchod.

Q about other Nordic CHODs’ warnings about timelines for a Russian attack on NATO & why he isn’t issuing similar warnings: “they say it’s a possibility. Of course it’s always a possibility, but the question is its probability”
Jaakkola continues that he doesn’t think a Russian attack on NATO is *probable* in the near future. He doesn’t consider a similar wake-up call necessary in Finland as Finnish defence thinking has always included the *possibility* of a Russian attack and 🇫🇮 is therefore prepared
On Ukraine, Jaakkola says that the general speculation is a new large summer offensive by Russia to reach an as good as possible military situation to then start pushing for political talks about Ukraine’s and the West’s concessions.
Read 5 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Mar 26
The Finnish security and intelligence service is giving the annual press conference.

Overall assessment: Finland’s security environment has changed fundamentally and for good. There is no going back to status quo ante (with Russia).
Overall, Russian intelligence activities have decreased in Finland since 2022 due to countermeasures, such as expelling of known intelligence officers and visa restrictions.

Cyber threats and threats against critical infrastructure, especially maritime, have increased
“Russia has been the main subject of our work throughout our (75 years of) existence. It’s great to be able to say it out loud now” says the Finnish intelligence service officer.

There’s no going back indeed, the genie is out of the bottle
Read 8 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Mar 22
The western Ukraine support coalition politics, as Teletubbies gifs. A thread:
(The red one is Scholz)
Macron realising that European security is seriously in jeopardy and he needs to step up:
Read 12 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Mar 5
Liebes Deutschland,

Russland ist nicht erst seit letzter Woche im Informationskrieg gegen euch, sondern versucht seit mindestens 10 Jahren (leider ziemlich erfolgreich) aktiv sowohl politische Entscheidungsfindung als auch öffentlichen Diskurs in 🇩🇪 zu beeinflussen !
Dabei kann Russland auf ein Netzwerk von Botschaftern, Generälen und Kanzlern a.D. sowie Politiker links- und rechtsaußen zurückgreifen die alle fröhlich die gewünschten Narrative in den deutschen Debatten aufrechterhalten.
Wir sind außerdem eh schon längst alle Kriegspartei in Russlands Augen. Russland ist laut Putins Propaganda im Krieg gegen die NATO und den Westen, und das ist was dort für Handlungsentscheidungen zählt, nicht das deutsche Grundgesetz.
Read 4 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Feb 10
Got tired of the defeatism that is AGAIN spreading in Europe amid the weekly warnings that Russia might attack NATO in 1-5 (or 20) years so I wrote about Nordic-Baltic preparedness.

Not everybody has been sitting on their hands for the past 2 years.

cepa.org/article/the-no…
Finland has activated a war economy lite. The Baltic states have been busy jointly procuring air defence systems to establish the “Livonian air shield” and are working to reinforce their borders together in the “Baltic Defence Line”. Sweden is reaching 2% already this year.
The Nordic countries are using their NORDEFCO cooperation framework and the EU’s ASAP funding to increase ammunition production both for regional needs and for Ukraine. The Baltic states are doing the same. This is all happening already, not in 3 years.
Read 5 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Jan 28
Finland has quietly filled its wartime stockpiles and is activating some of the so-called “production reservation agreements” which means that companies produce at the armed forces’ request what is needed for logistics - basically wartime economy light

hs.fi/kotimaa/art-20…
The Finnish Defence Forces (FDF) received extra money right in the spring of 2022 and started working on increasing stockpiles immediately, “luckily before many other European states woke up to the issue”, says the logistics chief - which means that the orders have been coming in
The analysis what is needed is based both on long-term assessments and the analysis of Ukraine’s ammunition consumption. Finland is already producing 5 times more heavy artillery munitions than pre-2022 but the capacity isn’t at max yet
Read 7 tweets

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