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Feb 5, 2023 35 tweets 11 min read Read on X
The Feb 5-11 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live.

SEVERE: NS
VERY HIGH: CAN, BC, NL, North, ON, SK
HIGH: NB, PEI
ELEVATED: AB, MB, QC

All but SK decreasing (SK increasing)

About 1 in 46 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i… This image shows a series of gauges with the February 5 to F
Apologies for missing a week last week--it was my fault, not the team!
For the weekly recommendations we provide, we're still using recommendations for VERY HIGH and SEVERE scores even for regions that have dropped below these thresholds.

Why? Because the projections we do are based on data that is already nearly 2 weeks old d/t reporting delays.
With the percentage of cases that are XBB.1.5 increasing in multiple Canadian regions, we're being more cautious with weekly recommendations, because there's a possibility things might be taking off now but the COVID Forecast isn't capturing it yet because input data are slow.
On to the individual provincial forecasts.

Here's the link where you can download png and jpeg files for these graphics if you want: drive.google.com/drive/folders/…

No, they're not up on our website yet. We're slow.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

CANADA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 46 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast, which is p
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

CANADA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 46 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~7X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~5X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
About 1 in 46 people in Canada this week are infected/infectious.

If you're higher risk, this is a good week to use curbside or home delivery, or ask others to help.

If you are NOT higher risk, this is a good week to ask neighbours, family, friends if you can help out. A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada has 3 sma
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 63 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Newfoun
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 63 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~5X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~9X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

HIGH

About 1 in every 65 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Prince
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 65 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~8X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~3X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

NOVA SCOTIA

SEVERE

About 1 in every 36 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nova Sc
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

NOVA SCOTIA

SEVERE

About 1 in every 36 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~12X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~15X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

QUEBEC

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 54 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Quebec,
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

QUEBEC

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 54 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~5X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~5X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Skipped New Brunswick by mistake. Sorry! Here it is now.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

NEW BRUNSWICK

HIGH

About 1 in every 118 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for New Bru
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

NEW BRUNSWICK

HIGH

About 1 in every 118 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~4X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths ~7X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

ONTARIO

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 36 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Ontario
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

ONTARIO

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 36 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~10X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~5X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

MANITOBA

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 125 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Manitob
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

MANITOBA

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 125 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~4X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~1X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 88 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Saskatc
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 88 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~5X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~13X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

ALBERTA

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 85 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Alberta
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

ALBERTA

ELEVATED

About 1 in every 85 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~5X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

BRITISH COLUMBIA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 48 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for British
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

BRITISH COLUMBIA

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 48 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~5X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths ~13X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

NUNAVUT, NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, YUKON

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 56 people is infected.

HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.

Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings. This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the Nor
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023

NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON

VERY HIGH

About 1 in every 56 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~11X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~3X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Februar
Just realized I forgot to shift the colour scheme for the SK longform graphic to a darker orange to reflect VERY HIGH status. Apologies.
Thanks to the incredible team of volunteers with @COVID_19_Canada working in the background on graphics and data entry.
We couldn't do this without the many volunteers who contribute week after week after week to help protect others.

Many are citizen scientists putting their skill sets to use to help collect, analyze, report on data and translate data into knowledge that is useful.
I'm signing off largely for a few days (deadlines, plus a whack load of data analysis and data entry to get done for a paper).

I'll check in tonight to see if anyone has caught errors I need to correct! They're always my errors, never the team's!

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More from @MoriartyLab

Jan 6
Canadian COVID Forecast Jan 4-17, 2025

CANADA

HIGH (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 265,000-308,450

About 1 in every 126 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~6X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~8X higher
-Deaths ~6X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 6.6 About 1 of every 126 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 265,000-308,450 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: HIGH; 5.6X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 5.2X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH; 8.1X higher Deaths: HIGH; 5.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type masks  ...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Jan 4-17, 2025

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

HIGH (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 3,400-4,000

About 1 in every 131 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~4X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~6X higher
-Deaths ~5X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 5.2 About 1 of every 131 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 3,400-4,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.4X higher Long COVID estimate: MODERATE; 4.9X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH; 6.1X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 4.8X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 mon...
Read 17 tweets
Dec 22, 2024
Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 21, 2024-Jan 3, 2025

CANADA

VERY HIGH (decreasing)

Estimated infections this week: 498,200-511,200

About 1 in every 82 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~9X higher
-Long COVID ~9X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~9X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH (decreasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 10.1 About 1 of every 82 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 498,200-511,200 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: HIGH; 9.3X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 8.9X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH; 11.7X higher Deaths: HIGH; 9.1X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 21, 2024-Jan 3, 2025

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

MODERATE (decreasing)

Estimated infections this week: 3,700-3,8500

About 1 in every 143 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~4X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~5X higher
-Deaths ~5X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (decreasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.9 About 1 of every 143 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 3,700-3,850 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.4X higher Long COVID estimate: MODERATE; 5.0X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH; 5.3X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 4.8X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every ...
Read 17 tweets
Dec 19, 2024
#CovidIsAirborne #CovidIsntOver #MaskUp #YallMasking #CleanTheAir #CovidCautious
Holiday Dance Night
Risk Scenario Estimator Based on Canadian Forecast

The full thread is also available on the C-19 website, starting on page 8, for easier reading.

lookerstudio.google.com/embed/u/0/repo…Image
Note: Forecast data will be posted on the weekend, those pages on the website have not been updated.
Holiday Dance Night
Nanny and her diabetic teen granddaughter are a high risk household. Because they are vulnerable, they have to miss inside family gatherings much more than they’d like in order to protect themselves . They both would love to celebrate with the rest of their friends and family on New Years Eve at the community Holiday Dance Night.

But is there any way to make it safe enough for them?
Many of us know, live with, or are vulnerable. We have a lot of people in our communities who are immune compromised, immune suppressed, or have long COVID. People who have to be extra careful about infections. It’s a lonely journey to keep safe these days, often having to stay away from events with crowds.
So, just how risky are those community gatherings?

There’s a Dance Night at the high school gym coming up. About 60 folks dancing to tunes for a couple hours, it would be so much fun to join in.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 6, 2024
The Data Card, “Family Holiday Dinner - Before”, shows how wise it is for everyone to mask while visiting inside.

We looked at a group of 10 people, you’re one of them, gathering for a 3 hour visit. People are chatting, but it’s mostly a quiet group enjoying each other’s company.

The scenario uses an average size dining room, 16 x 32. The airflow is well mixed among this and the other rooms and the outside doors are closed.

What can you do?We don't have our alt text for tables yet but we're working on it.
What can you do? Open the windows.

What can you do?

You can make your event even more safe by providing rapid tests beforehand and N95 masks as people arrive. This lets everyone know that you care about their health.

What else can you do?

Set up an Outside Food Zone. ™

If the weather is, ahem, wintery, and you have the resources, get a fire pit going.

Explore other ways to warm the space, maybe candles, those amazing patio heaters, or a tether ball to kick to warm everyone up. Don’t forget to provide gloves and blankets too.

Create an inviting space for people to bring their food out, unmask, safely eat at a distance from the crowd. When they’re ready they can join the folks inside again knowing that they are helping to keep everyone safe.

The “Family Holiday Dinner - Before” Card shows the maximum risk people that take on. We’re using the safest estimate for one-off events that often have visitors from away, may include a super spreader, and carry higher potential risks.
Your most vulnerable people will want to use these estimates since, for us, it’s best to assess risk by assuming the worst. We don't have our alt text for tables yet but we're working on it.
Read 8 tweets
Nov 26, 2024
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

CANADA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300

About 1 in every 43 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~27X higher
-Long COVID ~28X higher
-Hospitalizations ~29X higher
-Deaths ~26X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 27.3 About 1 of every 43 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 27.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 27.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 28.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEA...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

SEVERE (increasing)

Estimated infections this week: 10,600-11,300

About 1 in every 64 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~17X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~20X higher
-Deaths ~15X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 17.5 About 1 of every 64 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 10,600 - 11,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 17.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 18.5X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 20.4X higher Deaths: VERY HIGH; 14.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines e...
Read 17 tweets
Nov 26, 2024
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

CANADA

GRAVE (stable)

Infections pendant cette période : 1 190 200-1 266 300

Environ 1 personne sur 43 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~27X 🔺
-COVID longue ~28X 🔺
-Hospitalisations ~29X 🔺
-Décès ~26X 🔺This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 27.3 About 1 of every 43 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 27.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 27.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 28.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEA...
The english version of our regional forecast can be found here:

Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

TERRE-NEUVE ET LABRADOR

GRAVE (en hausse)

Infections pendant cette période : 10 600-11 300

Environ 1 personne sur 64 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~17X🔺
-COVID longue ~19X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~20X🔺
-Décès ~15X🔺Image
Read 17 tweets

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