Tara Moriarty Profile picture
🏳️‍🌈🇨🇦Assoc Prof @UofTDentistry @UofTMedicine. Bloodborne infections, Lyme disease, misinformation. @COVID_19_Canada @ScienceUpFirst @CLyDRN. Opinions mine.
Eric Carroll Profile picture CMarie...#CovidIsAirborne #BetterMasks! Profile picture 2 added to My Authors
10 Apr
Apr 9

1 of every 45 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb 2020

1 in 73 BC
1 in 79 AB
1 in 79 SK
1 in 37 MB
1 in 51 ON
1 in 30 QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term care & retirement homes has died

LAST 28 DAYS: 812 deaths, 1,183 LTC/RH cases, 303 LTC/RH deaths
Apr 9

-#COVID19 is in top 4 largest mortality events in #Canadian history

-Last 28 days: 812 Canadians died of C19

-If every week is like this week, 868 Canadians may die in next 28 days
Apr 9

#COVID19 #Canada

CASE FATALITY RATES

Wave 1 (to Aug 17)
Wave 2 (to Feb 18)
Wave 3 (Feb 19 to date)
Read 21 tweets
6 Apr
Update on excess death story:

So far, journalists @ericandrewgee of @globeandmail @arthurwhiteLP of @leaderpost have on record confirmation that ON and SK do NOT include probable #COVID19 deaths in reported C19 deaths.

This is counter to guidance of @GovCanHealth and @WHO.
By contrast, QC DOES report probable
C19 deaths in their reported numbers.

This goes at least some of the way toward explaining why excess deaths in ON and SK are greater than reported C19 deaths from March-Nov 14, 2020, and why this is not true in QC.
Today's @ericandrewgee story is below. @arthurwhiteLP story is going to press now.

Looking foward to hearing how BC, AB, MB report C19 deaths.

Looking forward even more to learning why ON, SK, possibly others don't follow @GovCanHealth, @WHO guidance.

Read 36 tweets
3 Apr
Apr 2

1 of every 43 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb 2020

1 in 69 BC
1 in 75 AB
1 in 78 SK
1 in 36 MB
1 in 49 ON
1 in 29 QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term care & retirement homes has died

LAST 28 DAYS: 817 deaths, 1,335 LTC/RH cases, 368 LTC/RH deaths Image
Apr 2

-#COVID19 is in top 4 largest mortality events in #Canadian history

-Last 28 days: 817 Canadians died of C19

-If every week is like this week, 834 Canadians may die in next 28 days Image
Apr 2

#COVID19 #Canada

CASE FATALITY RATES

Wave 1 (to Aug 17)
Wave 2 (to Feb 18)
Wave 3 (Feb 19 to date) Image
Read 33 tweets
22 Mar
Thread on Canadian excess deaths during #COVID19, round 3.

Why do I keep posting about this?

Because I'm worried we've missed a lot of C19 deaths outside LTC and that we may see many more during the 3rd wave because of slow rollout of vaccination of older adults in community.
When did I start thinking about this?

Last year, after reading a paper from @LauraCRosella & colleagues about excess mortality during first wave in Ontario, estimated from cremation data (which is reported fast and includes place of death information).

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Actually, it dates back further, to a @CIHI_ICIS report on #COVID19 deaths in congregate care in #Canada, which found that 80% of deaths in the first wave were in congregate care (long-term care, retirement homes), which in turn is twice the OECD average.

cihi.ca/sites/default/…
Read 73 tweets
21 Mar
Mar 19

1 of every 41 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb 2020

1 in 64 BC
1 in 72 AB
1 in 76 SK
1 in 36 MB
1 in 45 ON
1 in 28 QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term care & retirement homes has died

LAST 28 DAYS: 1,026 deaths, 1,969 LTC/RH cases, 838 LTC/RH deaths Image
Mar 19

-#COVID19 is in top 4 largest mortality events in #Canadian history

-Last 28 days: 1,026 Canadians died of C19

-If every week is like this week, 925 Canadians may die in next 28 days Image
From Mar-Nov 14, 2020

For every excess death of Atlantic and Northern Canadians 45 years and older

This is how many excess deaths in same age group there were in other regions:

BC 62X
AB 39X
SK 51X
MB 24X
ON 65X
QC 108X
Canada outside Atlantic & Northern regions: 68X Image
Read 17 tweets
17 Mar
On Sunday night I posted an analysis of excess deaths in #Canada since start of #COVID19 deaths.

The results were concerning, but interpretation was complicated by parallel toxic drug death epidemic.

I have now corrected for toxic drug deaths.

The results are still concerning.
Methods:

1. Took weekly excess deaths data from StatsCan (www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…).

2. Added excess deaths for each province/region starting first week when 1 death/million people reported to Nov 15 (last week when we have fairly complete Canadian excess death data): CUMULATIVE
For those who don't know, "excess death" is the number of deaths MORE than what you'd expect in any given period. More than all the normal deaths that occur in the population yearly.

Here's how excess death is calculated...
Read 49 tweets
15 Mar
Concerns about possible under-reporting of #COVID19 deaths in 4 #Canadian provinces:

Ontario, Saskatchewan, Alberta, BC

This thread will be fairly long. I've assembled it to try to crowd-source insights from those knowledgeable about provincial C19 death reporting.
First, I'll start with plots of cumulative excess deaths in Canada until Nov 14 (the last date when we have fairly complete excess death reporting for most of Canada).

I've set the start date as the first week when a province or territory reached 1 reported C19 death/million pop
Here are the excess deaths/100K, for those interested.
Read 30 tweets
13 Mar
Mar 12

1 of every 41 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb 2020

1 in 62 BC
1 in 71 AB
1 in 75 SK
1 in 36 MB
1 in 45 ON
1 in 28 QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term care & retirement homes has died

LAST 28 DAYS: 1,310 deaths, 2,064 LTC/RH cases, 811 LTC/RH deaths
Mar 12

-#COVID19 is in top 4 largest mortality events in #Canadian history

-Last 28 days: 1,310 Canadians died of C19

-If every week is like this week, 1,100 Canadians may die in next 28 days
From Mar-Nov 14, 2020

For every excess death of Atlantic and Northern Canadians 45 years and older

This is how many excess deaths in same age group there were in other regions:

BC 62X
AB 39X
SK 51X
MB 24X
ON 65X
QC 108X
Canada outside Atlantic & Northern regions: 68X
Read 19 tweets
12 Mar
Mar 12

Excess deaths/100K in #Canadians 45+ years old
(fold difference compared to Atlantic & Northern Canadians)

-from 1st week province reached 1 reported #COVID19 death/million people
-to Nov 14, 2020 (latest date of full excess mortality reporting in all provinces)
Excess deaths/100K in #Canadians (all ages, and 45+ years) compared to reported #COVID19 deaths

-from 1st week province reached 1 reported #COVID19 death/million people
-to Nov 14, 2020 (latest date of full excess mortality reporting in all provinces)
Total excess deaths in #Canadians (all ages, and 45+ years) compared to reported #COVID19 deaths

-from 1st week province reached 1 reported #COVID19 death/million people
-to Nov 14, 2020 (latest date of full excess mortality reporting in all provinces)
Read 12 tweets
20 Feb
Feb 19

1 of every 39 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb 2020

1 in 57 BC
1 in 72 AB
1 in 75 SK
1 in 36 MB
1 in 43 ON
1 in 27 QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term care & retirement homes has died

LAST 28 DAYS: 2,745 deaths, 7,433 LTC/RH cases, 1,885 LTC/RH deaths
Feb 19

-#COVID19 is in top 5 largest mortality events in #Canadian history

-Last 28 days: 2,745 Canadians died of C19

-If every week is like this week, 2,267 Canadians may die in next 28 days
Feb 19

1 of every 5 #Canadians with #COVID19 in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes has died since Feb 2020

1 in 6 BC
1 in 7 AB
1 in 5 SK
1 in 4 MB
1 in 8 ON
1 in 4 QC

There are 7,433 LTC/RH cases in last 28 days

We MUST vaccinate everyone in LTC & RHs NOW
Read 13 tweets
15 Feb
Big day!!!!!!!

The new @COVID_19_Canada website is now live!

We've got a helluva lot done since we began on March 20, 2020, but we're not always great at tooting our own horns.

So, today, I will tell you about us, and most importantly, how we can help.

covid19resources.ca/about-us/
First, our work is financially supported by the @TrottierFdn @GenomeCanada and @calculquebec, with in-kind labour from @UofT @mcgillu @NRC_CNRC @OICR_news @uofg @usask.

Our partners include @CanCovid @ScienceUpFirst @labcrunch @SkeenaStrong @cactushive
Here's how we get the work done:

Our core team of 23 consists of a few paid staff plus MANY volunteers running & developing our programs. You can find them at the link below.

BTW we are still seeking volunteer regional leads for AB, BC & the North.

covid19resources.ca/about-us/
Read 22 tweets
13 Feb
Feb 12

1 of every 39 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Mar 2020

1 in 57 BC
1 in 73 AB
1 in 75 SK
1 in 35 MB
1 in 43 ON
1 in 27 QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term care & retirement homes has died

LAST 28 DAYS: 3,547 deaths, 10,081 LTC/RH cases, 2,029 LTC/RH deaths
Feb 12

-More #Canadians have died of #COVID19 than died each year during 1918-1920 "Spanish" flu

-COVID-19 is in top 10 largest mortality events in Cdn history

-Last 28 days: 3,547 Canadians died of C19

-If every week is like this week, 3,100 Cdns may die in next 28 days
Feb 12

1 of every 5 #Canadians with #COVID19 in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes has died since March 2020

1 in 6 BC
1 in 9 AB
1 in 5 SK
1 in 5 MB
1 in 7 ON
1 in 4 QC

There are 10,081 LTC/RH cases in last 28 days

We MUST vaccinate everyone in LTC & RHs NOW
Read 15 tweets
11 Feb
Just sitting here, entering #COVID19 #Canada data, wondering if I've missed any recent expressions of concern from certain premiers about the wisdom of recent re-opening decisions.

Oh, I don't know, maybe from premiers of QC, ON, MB, SK?

Why you ask?

Well.....
@roussin_brent is looking forward to some light re-opening, when MB still has the highest per capita rate of #COVID19 hospitalizations in the country, a record held for months.

But look, SK might soon catch up. Image
Speaking of SK, @PremierScottMoe must be proud not only that SK is about to overtake MB for highest #COVID19 hospitalizations per capita in #Canada, but that SK is also just about to pass MB for total per capita cases in the epidemic.

Yes, that's since Feb 2020, not 2021. Image
Read 6 tweets
6 Feb
Feb 5

1 of every 39 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since March 2020

1 in 56 BC
1 in 74 AB
1 in 75 SK
1 in 36 MB
1 in 43 ON
1 in 27 QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 14,4457 LTC cases in last 28 days ⬇️

🧵
I'm simplifying these threads & will now show sliding window views of last 3 months of cumulative data for whole epidemic (except for province-specific summaries at end).

Rate of change graphs are provided for preceding 28 days to give a better sense of most recent dynamics.
Please note that though it's tempting to speculate about recent trends for long-term/personal care & retirement homes, reporting for this sector is VERY delayed & is almost always incomplete for preceding 3-4 weeks. The period of uncertainty is now highlighted in gray in graphs.
Read 25 tweets
30 Jan
Jan 29

Weekly summary #COVID19 #Canada

COMPARISONS:
Provinces, high income peer countries w/ pop >20M

FOCUS:
All deaths, cases, plus focus on long-term care & retirement homes

THREAD OUTLINE
2-12: Data, whole epidemic
13-23: Wave 2
24-33: Last 28d, next 28d
34: Methods

/1
Jan 29

1 of every 39 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 56 in BC
1 in 76 in AB
1 in 80 in SK
1 in 36 in MB
1 in 44 in ON
1 in 27 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 17,437 LTC cases in last 28 days

/2
Jan 29

More #Canadians have now died of #COVID19 than died each year during the 1918-1920 "Spanish" flu

COVID-19 is in top 10 largest mortality events in Canadian history.

4,179 Canadians died of COVID-19 in the last 28 days.

Nearly 6,200 may die in the next 28 days.

/3
Read 33 tweets
16 Jan
Jan 15

1 of every 39 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 57 in BC
1 in 82 in AB
1 in 94 in SK
1 in 36 in MB
1 in 44 in ON
1 in 27 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns with C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 15,690 LTC cases in last 28 days
Jan 15

#COVID19 is in top 10 largest mortality events in #Canadian history.

3,765 Cdns died of C19 in the last 28 days.

Nearly 7,000 may die in the next 28 days.

We need the #CanadianShield @csc_canada_
Jan 15

#COVID19 #Canada

Total deaths 17,773

LAST 28 DAYS
🔹All deaths: 3,765
🔹Long-term care/retirement home cases: 15,690
🔹LTC/RH deaths: 2,331

NEXT 28 DAYS (estimate)
🔹All deaths: 6,801
🔹LTC/RH cases: 37,078
🔹LTC/RH deaths fr new cases next 28d: 4,658

#VaccinateLTCNow
Read 26 tweets
15 Jan
#Canadian #medtwitter

Many are feeling conflicted about posting vaccine selfies b/c of very real & important equity concerns.

But we cannot underestimate how important it is for people to see that we know the vaccines are safe & how life-changing it is to receive them.
I actually think we should keep posting these, but perhaps we can say that we'll only do this if simultaneously we advocate hard for transparent data reporting on progress on vaccination in vulnerable sectors, and then to improve this progress.
For example, here's QC is reporting daily on vaccination progress in high priority vulnerable sectors (example: cdn-contenu.quebec.ca/cdn-contenu/sa…). It's unacceptable that other provinces aren't doing this, b/c it allows them to hide progress on the most critical, widely accepted goals.
Read 14 tweets
14 Jan
#Canadian healthcare providers & scientists,

Do you want to be a resource supporting people with #COVID19 vaccine safety questions?

@COVID_19_Canada is running Zoom sessions from 8-10 nightly where volunteer scientists, physicians, pharmacists talk w/ anyone who drops in.

🧵
We're well-staffed with volunteers for these nightly sessions, which are primarily for people working & linked to the LTC community.

However, at the request of unions & homes we're expanding to do scheduled sessions at other times of day.
Ultimately, we'd like to make drop-in & scheduled sessions available through much of day 7 days/wk & in multiple languages. Plus, expand to support ppl beyond LTC community.

We're not ready to scale up that big just yet, but I want to start signing up volunteers to help.
Read 14 tweets
8 Jan
Jan 7

1 of every 38 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 56 in BC
1 in 87 in AB
1 in 93 in SK
1 in 35 in MB
1 in 41 in ON
1 in 25 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns with C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 13,607 LTC cases in last 28 days
Jan 7

#COVID19 is in top 10 largest mortality events in #Canadian history.

3,545 Cdns died of C19 in the last 28 days.

Nearly 6,000 will likely die in the next 28 days.

We need the #CanadianShield @csc_canada_
Jan 7

1 of every 5 #Canadians with #COVID19 in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes has died since Feb

1 in 4 in BC
1 in 9 in AB
1 in 7 in SK
1 in 5 in MB
1 in 6 in ON
1 in 4 in QC

There are 13,607 LTC cases in last 28 days.

We MUST vaccinate everyone in LTC & RHs NOW!
Read 33 tweets
5 Jan
#Canadian scientists, science communicators, HCPs who vaccinate and is scientifically knowledgeable about #COVID19 vaccines

Are you frustrated by slow vaccination rates, vaccines being thrown out? Do you want to help now?

There one very big way we can help now.
Many HCWs scheduled to be vaccinated now are nervous about the vaccine and would like to be able to talk to knowledgeable experts and have supportive, non-judgemental discussions.
It is incredibly important that we provide support and information and conversation about the COVID vaccines to people who live, work in & visit long-term care and retirement homes in Canada. And we need to do it NOW.
Read 25 tweets
4 Jan
Do you work, live in or visit a long-term/personal care or retirement home in #Canada, or do you know someone who does?

Are you worried about whether the #COVID19 vaccines are safe, and if you should take them?

If so, I'm starting a nightly Zoom session to answer questions.
If you'd like the link to attend, please email me: tara.moriarty(at)utoronto.ca.

If a lot of people want to attend, my first priority right now is people associated w/ LTC/retirement homes.

Je suis (pas mal) bilingue. Alors, je suis capable de discuter en francais.
I'll do the sessions at 8 p.m. Eastern time, so it's not too late for Atlantic folks, but also late enough for many people on the West coast to be home from shifts. I'll do the sessions on weekends too so that as many people as possible can attend.
Read 9 tweets