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Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Tara Moriarty
@MoriartyLab
🏳️‍🌈🇨🇦Assoc Prof @UofT. Bloodborne infections, Lyme disease, misinfo. @COVID_19_Canada. Defend journalism. Opinions mine. @MoriartyLab@med-mastodon.com
Attitude is Everything Profile picture Alex Kronstein Profile picture Cai Stark ☭ Profile picture Eric's On Mastodon Profile picture CMarie #CovidIsAirborne #SmallTownAB #WaterNotCoal Profile picture 18 subscribed
Aug 20 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
OK folks.

Here are some MPOX questions answered:

🧵 First and foremost:

The protective measures we use against COVID (N95-type masks, handwashing, surface cleaning) will work well against MPOX of any clade, regardless of transmission mode.

If you or a household member develop MPOX (Clade II only so far in Canada), seek medical care (while wearing a mask). If it's MPOX, you and contacts, including household members, will be vaccinated.

Based on what we know about Clade I, vaccination will provide excellent protection. It should for Clade II, but we don't have enough data yet to be sure.
Aug 7 • 44 tweets • 7 min read
Gathering together to watch the Olympians

-FYI- When you see the Forecast thread posted, that also means that this thread is now available on the C-19 website, pages 6 - 9, for easier reading. SCENARIO BASICS 
It’s the Summer Olympics! 
I love the Olympics.
Aug 6 • 31 tweets • 9 min read
Canadian COVID Forecast

Aug 3-16, 2024

SEVERE: BC, NB, NL, North, NS, SK

VERY HIGH: CAN, ON, QC

HIGH: AB, MB, PEI

MODERATE: none

About 1 in 54 people in Canada is CURRENTLY infected. Image It's me doing the Forecast thread this week, not @BattlingBeaver who does a much better job than me, but is on a well-deserved vacation.

I'll do an abbreviated thread, since I'm a bit time-strapped. Sorry I didn't get it out this weekend!
Jul 19 • 48 tweets • 9 min read
Summertime Suite of Scenarios - Part 2

SCENARIO BASICS

Two more Summertime Scenarios.

This is a long thread with lots of information.

A blue-bordered image by COVID-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Summertime Suite of Scenarios Image: colourful graphic of dense group of people figures Text in a blue box on top left: Big Crowds! Activities in packed places •Carnival Midway •Indoors Pavilion Partying Part 2 of 2 Footnote: *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Image bottom left: silhouette of 5 dancing people in front of red background and bright yellow sun Text in a blue box on bottom left: Activity Risks Summertime gatherings can be high risk. Your N95 mask keeps you kickin’ with 10x l...
A blue-bordered image by COVID-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Carnival Midway Image: Carnival rides - two huge rides - the upside down umbrellas with people hanging off the ropes, and an enormous ferris wheel. Text in first blue box below: If you want to go, mask up! In line? On rides? Seeing the sights? Mask Up Text in second blue box: Looking to get food? Look for open spaces away from crowds to enjoy it. Text to the right of the boxes: You’ll be safer with a mask Lower left image: Carnival grounds showing crowds of people, colourful vendor kiosks, rides in the backgroun...
A blue-bordered image by COVID-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Indoors Pavilion Partying Image: Inside the Pavilion, overhead crowd view of hundreds of people at the large venue, looking at the stage in front. Text in first blue box below: Dancing, eating, concerts, singing, and lotsa booze. This is NOT safe. Text in second blue box: Partying outside, in less crowded places is much more safe. Text to the right of the boxes: There are safer ways to have fun! Lower left image: Different inside view of Pavilion, seeing the arched high roof, large tree filling the space and th... Illustrations, data cards and story will be posted on the C-19 Resources Canada website next week for those that like to have it for reference later.
Jul 7 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
Canadian COVID Forecast Jul 6-19, 2024

CANADA

VERY HIGH (no change)

About 1 in every 73 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~10X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~17X higher
-Deaths ~10X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for July 6-19, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 12.2 About 1 of every 73 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 338,000-439,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: HIGH; 9.9X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 5.2X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 16.9X higher Deaths: HIGH; 9.7X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type mas... Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Jul 5 • 38 tweets • 7 min read
Summertime Suite of Scenarios - Part 1

At the Calgary Stampede, two traditions are going strong

– Pancake Breakfasts and Big Barbecue Lunches.

But … how risky is it to go? A blue-bordered image by COVID-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Summertime Suite of Scenarios Image: colourful graphic of dense group of people figures Text in a blue box on top left: Big Crowds! Activities in packed places •Pancake Breakfasts, standing in long lines. •Big BBQ Lunch, seated at long tables. Part 1 of 2 Footnote: *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Image bottom left: Galloping horses across a dusty field Text in a blue box on bottom left: Activity Risks Calgary Stampede week activities can be high risk. Your N95 mask keeps you galloping... You have to start the day with pancakes, of course.

That means lining up, allotting about a half hour to move up, tantalising aromas of the cooking food entertaining you, till you get to have your own plate full.
Jun 24 • 47 tweets • 11 min read
Canadian COVID Forecast

Jun 22-Jul 5, 2024

SEVERE: AB, NB, NL, PEI
VERY HIGH: CAN, BC, North, ON, SK
HIGH: MB, NS, QC
MODERATE: none

About 1 in 84 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. Image Please bear with me. It's been nearly a year since I've done this thread myself, since volunteers usually tweet it out on Forecast weekends from my account.

I'm doing a shorter version of what usually goes out, without ALT text (sorry, sorry!).
Jun 22 • 170 tweets • 43 min read
A post about:

🔵Canadian COVID-19 data reporting
🔵How the Canadian COVID-19 Forecast has been changing in recent months in response to disappearing data
🔵How we're preparing to do a Forecast even if we lose all weekly reporting except waste water from @GovCanHealth Image @GovCanHealth This will be a long post, and we have a three hour meeting starting in 20 min, so you might want to bookmark the thread, because I'll be doing that thing where I ramble on and off for hours.

And I'm deeply angry, which means I'll be on a tear for a while.
Jun 21 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
Summer Stampede Safety

SCENARIO BASICS

It’s June and summer activities are gearing up.

Those big events, like the Calgary Stampede, are right around the corner.

But how risky is it to go? A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Summer Stampede Safety Image: drone photo of an outside concert, densely packed crowd, white tent in the centre. Text in a blue box on top left: Big Crowds! 2.5 hours at the packed outdoor concert. There’s 100 people in a 20 foot area and you’re right in it! Reduce your risks with a good mask. Footnote: *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Image bottom left: Galloping horses across a dusty field Text in a blue box on bottom left: Activity Risks Calgary Stampede week activities can be hi... This scenario takes one of the big events that happen at the Stampede, a densely packed Outdoor Concert.

The crowd is probably about 5,000 concert-goers.

If you attend, you'll be one of 100 people standing in a 20 foot square area.
Jun 9 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 8-21, 2024

CANADA

MODERATE (no change)

About 1 in every 143 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~5X higher
-Long COVID ~3X higher
-Hospitalizations ~5X higher
-Deaths ~3X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for June 8-21, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.0 About 1 of every 143 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 122,200-261,800 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.6X higher Long COVID estimate: MODERATE; 2.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: MODERATE; 4.8X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 2.7X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR ... Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Jun 9 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Canadian COVID Forecast: Jun 8-21, 2024

SEVERE: none
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: BC, NB, NL, NS, PEI
MODERATE: CAN, AB, MB, North, ON, QC, SK

About 1 in 143 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the June 8-21, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 4.0 - MODERATE Alberta: 3.2 - MODERATE British Columbia: 7.1 - MODERATE Manitoba: 3.0 - MODERATE New Brunswick: 7.0 - MODERATE Newfoundland and Labrador: 9.0 - MODERATE North: 4.0 - MODERATE Nova Scotia: 5.4 - MODERATE Ontario: 3.4 - MODERATE Prince Edward Island: 8.0 - MODERATE Quebec: 3.1 - MODERATE Saskatchewan: 3.1 - HIGH All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here: (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-ind... Notre aperçu national en français :

Jun 5 • 22 tweets • 4 min read
Drumming and Singing Circle

SCENARIO BASICS

It’s exciting to attend #NIPD events. How can we gather as safely as possible?

A singer misses her drum sisters and wonders if she could attend. A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: National Indigenous Peoples Day Image: Event logo of vibrant yellow, red, blue image of June 21 with eagle and whale graphics Text in a blue box on top left: Be Accessible Mask, Test, Ventilate, Celebrate outdoors. If ill, celebrate at home. #NIPD2024 Part 1 Footnote: *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Text in blue box: Drumming & Singing Circle in a teepee *Covid is easier to catch when people sing *Outdoors is 100x safer than Indoors *An N95 mask is 100x safer than no mask. Image... There are many drum circles across Turtle Island, in person, in teepees, even virtual options.

But how risky are they?

This scenario is for 1 hour participating in a Drumming and Singing Circle in a teepee.

The teepee is 24’ around and 20’ high in this estimation. A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: National Indigenous Peoples Day Image: Event logo of vibrant yellow, red, blue image of June 21 with eagle and whale graphics #NIPD2024 Text in a upper 2 blue boxes, first box: Drumming & Singing Circle inside a closed-door teepee, for an hour. 20 enthusiastic participants. second box: How do you keep everyone safe? Obtain free tests and N95 masks. Caption: Outdoors provides the most safety Caption: Know your risks Text in a lower 2 blue boxes, third box: Level of risks depend on Frequency Intensity Time (FIT)...
May 22 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
How safe is swimming indoors?

SCENARIO BASICS

Have you been wondering how safe swimming at an indoor public pool can be??

While outdoor swim season is here for some and approaching for others there are still inside pool facilities available and in some places abundant. A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: How safe is Swimming Inside? Image: photo of a young man at an inside swimming pool, flying off of a rope swing, in mid-air. Text in a blue box on top left: Wear a mask on deck? 30 minutes in the pool. What are risks in water with no mask? Should I stay on deck, masked? How fresh is the air? Footnote: *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Image bottom left: Adult and child wearing N95 masks. Adult says: Activity Risks, Pool air quality is minimal. Poor air, no mask, in pool: $23* Goo... Nan takes the grandkids to the pool in all weather. She used to teach aquafit, back in the day, and would so love to jump in and join them!

But how risky is that?
May 6 • 34 tweets • 5 min read
SCENARIO BASICS

This scenario is a one hour pickup basketball game at the rec centre gymnasium.

There are 5 or 6 groups of players bouncing and weaving around their respective nets.

The grandsons are joining a group and Nan sits in the bleachers watching. A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: How safe is playing sports at the gym? Image: Two people in colourful jerseys and shorts, playing with a green basketball. One player is crouched with the ball, the other is guarding them. Text in a blue box on top left: 5 or 6 groups at the nets An hour of pickup basketball at the rec centre. Do I need to mask? How fresh is the air? Footnote: *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Image bottom left: Man wearing N95 mask says: Activity Risks, Ask about air quality. Poor air, no mask $128*. G... This Scenario Estimation can be used for various recreational activities as well.

The results here is for a gymnasium, a rec centre gym with high ceilings kind of space, that is 30’x30’ with 30’ ceilings.
Apr 14 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
Canadian COVID Forecast Apr 13-26, 2024

CANADA

MODERATE (no change)

About 1 in every 75 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~4X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~5X higher
-Deaths ~2X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Apr 13-26, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 3.55 About 1 of every 75 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 275,500-469,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.12X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 5.03X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: MODERATE; 4.87X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 1.66X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR ... Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Apr 5 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
People have been asking about accounts to follow for H5N1 info.

Here are accounts that provide excellent, fast, thorough and judicious reporting and H5N1 discussions on Twitter geared toward people who are not technical experts

@HelenBranswell @Laurie_Garrett

cont'd... @HelenBranswell @Laurie_Garrett @DelthiaRicks @weese_scott @deonandan @NGrandvaux @ProMED_mail (technical)

The wonderful @MackayIM is still here, but his account is now closed.
Mar 31 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
Canadian COVID Forecast Mar 30-Apr 12, 2024

CANADA

MODERATE (no change)

About 1 in every 139 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~4X higher
-Long COVID ~3X higher
-Hospitalizations ~5X higher
-Deaths ~4X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Mar 30-Apr 12, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.45 About 1 of every 139 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 68,900-249,100 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.12X higher Long COVID estimate: MODERATE; 3.19X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH; 5.15X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 4.09X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months W... Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Mar 17 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Canadian COVID Forecast: Mar 16-29, 2024

SEVERE: SK
VERY HIGH: MB, NL
HIGH: CAN, AB, BC, NB, North, NS, ON, QC, PEI
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none

About 1 in 47 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Mar 16-29, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 9.0 - HIGH Alberta: 6.8 - HIGH British Columbia: 9.4 - HIGH Manitoba: 13.0 - VERY HIGH New Brunswick: 8.5 - HIGH Newfoundland and Labrador: 11.2 - VERY HIGH North: 9.9 - HIGH Nova Scotia: 10.0 - HIGH Ontario: 8.2 - HIGH Prince Edward Island: 9.2 - HIGH Quebec: 8.6 - HIGH Saskatchewan: 16.1 - SEVERE All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here: (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Forecast scores are gr... Notre aperçu national en français :

Feb 18 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Canadian COVID Forecast: Feb 17-Mar 2, 2024

SEVERE: AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, NS, PEI, SK
VERY HIGH: CAN, North, ON, QC
HIGH: none
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none

About 1 in 47 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Feb 17-Mar 2, 2024 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 7.6 - VERY HIGH Alberta: 8.1 - SEVERE British Columbia: 9.2 - SEVERE Manitoba: 12.8 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 16.0 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 9.3 - SEVERE North: 7.6 - VERY HIGH Nova Scotia: 9.5 - SEVERE Ontario: 6.7 - VERY HIGH Prince Edward Island: 8.1 - SEVERE Quebec: 6.1 - VERY HIGH Saskatchewan: 9.8 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Ha... Notre aperçu national en français :

Feb 14 • 48 tweets • 8 min read
I'm not sure, based on things I learned with my parents, both of whom have/had dementia. The first was my dad, who was firy and irascible and generous and thoughtful and sad. But who enjoyed irony. And was a patriarchal type at times.

My mom and brothers and I would have sworn he'd never want to live as a disempowered version of himself.

But that wasn't true.
Feb 11 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This scenario assumes a 20 minute bus ride, with 40 other passengers.

This information is related to the level of virus shedding by the people on the bus.

Data cards follow showing Average and Safe risk levels. A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Reduce your risk on Public Transit Line drawing of 3 city buses, 2 blue boxes with info: Prepare, Wear your best mask, preferably N95 or better. Ventilate, Choose routes with frequent stops, few people. Open windows when possible. *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Person wearing N95 mask, in lower left corner says: Activity Risks, 20 min bus ride, Good air - with mask risk as low as $0.17. Poor air - no mask risk is $291 and higher. Image lower right, Superhero with an N95 mask, N... Safe estimates the most risky scenario, that you’re unlucky and at least one person is infected and is a superspreader/super shedder on the bus.

This information is useful for highly vulnerable people to know the most risk of the activity, when there’s a Go/No Go choice. Image