The Feb 5-11 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live.
SEVERE: NS
VERY HIGH: CAN, BC, NL, North, ON, SK
HIGH: NB, PEI
ELEVATED: AB, MB, QC
All but SK decreasing (SK increasing)
About 1 in 46 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
SEVERE: NS
VERY HIGH: CAN, BC, NL, North, ON, SK
HIGH: NB, PEI
ELEVATED: AB, MB, QC
All but SK decreasing (SK increasing)
About 1 in 46 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
Apologies for missing a week last week--it was my fault, not the team!
For the weekly recommendations we provide, we're still using recommendations for VERY HIGH and SEVERE scores even for regions that have dropped below these thresholds.
Why? Because the projections we do are based on data that is already nearly 2 weeks old d/t reporting delays.
Why? Because the projections we do are based on data that is already nearly 2 weeks old d/t reporting delays.
With the percentage of cases that are XBB.1.5 increasing in multiple Canadian regions, we're being more cautious with weekly recommendations, because there's a possibility things might be taking off now but the COVID Forecast isn't capturing it yet because input data are slow.
On to the individual provincial forecasts.
Here's the link where you can download png and jpeg files for these graphics if you want: drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
No, they're not up on our website yet. We're slow.
Here's the link where you can download png and jpeg files for these graphics if you want: drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
No, they're not up on our website yet. We're slow.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
CANADA
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 46 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
CANADA
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 46 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
CANADA
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 46 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~7X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~5X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher
CANADA
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 46 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~7X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~5X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher
About 1 in 46 people in Canada this week are infected/infectious.
If you're higher risk, this is a good week to use curbside or home delivery, or ask others to help.
If you are NOT higher risk, this is a good week to ask neighbours, family, friends if you can help out.
If you're higher risk, this is a good week to use curbside or home delivery, or ask others to help.
If you are NOT higher risk, this is a good week to ask neighbours, family, friends if you can help out.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 63 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 63 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 63 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~5X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~9X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 63 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~5X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~9X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
HIGH
About 1 in every 65 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
HIGH
About 1 in every 65 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 65 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~8X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~3X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 65 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~8X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~3X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
NOVA SCOTIA
SEVERE
About 1 in every 36 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
NOVA SCOTIA
SEVERE
About 1 in every 36 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
NOVA SCOTIA
SEVERE
About 1 in every 36 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~12X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~15X higher
NOVA SCOTIA
SEVERE
About 1 in every 36 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~12X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~6X higher
🟡Deaths ~15X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
QUEBEC
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 54 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
QUEBEC
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 54 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
QUEBEC
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 54 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~5X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~5X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher
QUEBEC
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 54 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~5X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~5X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher
Skipped New Brunswick by mistake. Sorry! Here it is now.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
NEW BRUNSWICK
HIGH
About 1 in every 118 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
NEW BRUNSWICK
HIGH
About 1 in every 118 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
NEW BRUNSWICK
HIGH
About 1 in every 118 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~4X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths ~7X higher
NEW BRUNSWICK
HIGH
About 1 in every 118 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~4X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths ~7X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
ONTARIO
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 36 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
ONTARIO
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 36 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
ONTARIO
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 36 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~10X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~5X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher
ONTARIO
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 36 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~10X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~5X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
MANITOBA
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 125 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
MANITOBA
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 125 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
MANITOBA
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 125 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~4X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~1X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher
MANITOBA
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 125 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~4X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~1X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
SASKATCHEWAN
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 88 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
SASKATCHEWAN
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 88 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
SASKATCHEWAN
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 88 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~5X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~13X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher
SASKATCHEWAN
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 88 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~5X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~13X higher
🟡Deaths ~6X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
ALBERTA
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 85 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
ALBERTA
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 85 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
ALBERTA
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 85 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~5X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher
ALBERTA
ELEVATED
About 1 in every 85 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~5X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths ~2X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
BRITISH COLUMBIA
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 48 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
BRITISH COLUMBIA
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 48 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
BRITISH COLUMBIA
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 48 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~5X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths ~13X higher
BRITISH COLUMBIA
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 48 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~5X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~4X higher
🟡Deaths ~13X higher
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
NUNAVUT, NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, YUKON
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 56 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
NUNAVUT, NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, YUKON
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 56 people is infected.
HOW TO HELP:
Mask, get your booster, avoid non-essential indoor public places, social gatherings.
Higher risk: also avoid outdoor social gatherings.
Canadian COVID Forecast Feb 5-11, 2023
NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 56 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~11X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~3X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher
NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON
VERY HIGH
About 1 in every 56 people infected
Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:
🟡Waste water, infections, long COVID cases ~11X higher
🟡Hospitalizations ~3X higher
🟡Deaths ~4X higher
Just realized I forgot to shift the colour scheme for the SK longform graphic to a darker orange to reflect VERY HIGH status. Apologies.
Thanks to the incredible team of volunteers with @COVID_19_Canada working in the background on graphics and data entry.
We couldn't do this without the many volunteers who contribute week after week after week to help protect others.
Many are citizen scientists putting their skill sets to use to help collect, analyze, report on data and translate data into knowledge that is useful.
Many are citizen scientists putting their skill sets to use to help collect, analyze, report on data and translate data into knowledge that is useful.
I'm signing off largely for a few days (deadlines, plus a whack load of data analysis and data entry to get done for a paper).
I'll check in tonight to see if anyone has caught errors I need to correct! They're always my errors, never the team's!
I'll check in tonight to see if anyone has caught errors I need to correct! They're always my errors, never the team's!
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