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Kain Osterholt Profile picture
@ka1n0s
Feb 6, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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1/8
$DXY #MOASS 🧵

$EURUSD
2/8
$USDEUR 6 mo time frame going back to 1980
3/8
$USDJPY breakout with interesting fractal
4/8
$USDGBP
5/8
$USDCNH
6/8
$USDCAD - a little forgiving on the parabola, but an interesting trend nevertheless.
7/8
$USDKRW
8/8
$USDMYR - Malaysian Ringgit

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More from @ka1n0s

Kain Osterholt Profile picture
Nov 26, 2023
1/14

Because the $VIX is such a hot topic I figured I'd add it as a comparison to the 2021/22 $SPX top pattern side-by-side.

We are watching a re-run of a distribution process that played out 2 years ago.

But why 2 years ago? Image
2/
This "bull market" of 2023 is based on the recycling of excess liquidity. The process goes something like this:

1. 2020+2021 QE double overdose
2. Jan 2022: Begin detox
3. 2023: debt ceiling recycling program
4. 2024: Rate hike hangover

Let's go through these one by one...
3/
1. 2020+2021 QE double overdose

The WRESBAL weekly chart with RSI and MACD indicators make this pretty clear.

It's obvious that the Fed coupled with egregious fiscal spending distort the economic cycle.

But a high like this never fades without a hangover. Image
Read 14 tweets
Kain Osterholt Profile picture
Nov 9, 2023
1/14

"Is $TLT a trap?" 🧵 Image
2/
QT plays an important role. QT slowly changes supply/demand dynamics such that the TGA isn't soaking up more than it did with the Fed buying bonds.

The "QE replacement" is reverse repo, which softens the blow of QT, but with a disappearing act attached

RRP->TGA->QT Image
3/
It's not exactly this simple, but this is the basic explanation of the steps:

1. Treasury holds an auction
2. Dollars buy auctioned bonds with RRP cash
3. Dollars end up in TGA
4. Fed bonds mature
5. Treasury pays down Fed balance sheet

The cash in step 2 is now gone
Read 13 tweets
Kain Osterholt Profile picture
Jul 9, 2023
1/7
The last time $SPX was as divergent from liquidity according to DEDO's recent peak was in September 2019.

Are there any differences between then and now?

Let's see...🧵
2/7
First, a similarity in 2019 was the bounce from lows in December of the previous year below CBDET, and subsequent gains of over 20% for $SPX

But liquidity then continued up...and SPX to new highs before something snapped.
3/7
Now we have a similar beginning to the story.

This time a key difference is that liquidity is moving down, and recently appears to have accelerated downward.

If liquidity can bounce and move up it may be possible for $SPX to continue up as well.
Read 7 tweets
Kain Osterholt Profile picture
Jul 5, 2023
1/5
Something big is going on in Japan.

This small move today in the $DXY doesn't look significant, but let's zoom in on Japan's current loss of 92B USD in one day.
2/5
Japan may be "printing" to keep up with YCC, but the asset valuation denominated in USD is struggling.

It's down over 1.8 Trillion USD from the top in January 2021.

Notice the drop in October 2022 marked the bottom for $SPX and $QQQ
3/5
WRESBAL is a measure of Fed liquidity, and it has an interesting correlation with Japan's central bank assets valuation.

BoJ's assets are rolling over hard, which could be a leading indicator that WRESBAL is likely to drop further.
Read 6 tweets
Kain Osterholt Profile picture
Feb 6, 2023
1/6
🧵

DEDO top reversal analysis using 1d candles.

Let's take a look at all the top swing reversals in the current bear market after 2022 started, and see if we can find any patterns...
2/6
The white channel, not including the "more extreme" blue channel starts from a bounce very near the 0 bound on 8th January 2021.

red bodied candles followed by consolidation are common.
3/6
The 2022 TOP was an outlier. A massive overshoot candle shows up here because WRESBAL fell off a cliff. What a rug pull!
Read 6 tweets
Kain Osterholt Profile picture
Feb 5, 2023
1/12

"A Candle to Remember" 🧵

Just when I think this swing trade saga couldn't get any more amped, something hits me like a Tesla hits pedestrians at 100 mph on auto-pilot mode.

This one's going to get a little personal, so bear with me.

It'll be worth it in the end...
2/12

The Chinese balloon...

All I could think was how strange it is, the metaphors that arise in "reality" if this isn't a simulation of some kind.

Just when it seems all market reversal sirens are blaring, a big bubble pops in the sky, for all to see?
3/12

One of my favorite books is "Simulacra and Simulation" (Jean Baudrillard).

The world keeps reminding us that it is "imploding", one thing at a time.

The next story, which i promise eventually becomes relevant to my big trade, ties all of this together...
Read 12 tweets

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