1/14

Because the $VIX is such a hot topic I figured I'd add it as a comparison to the 2021/22 $SPX top pattern side-by-side.

We are watching a re-run of a distribution process that played out 2 years ago.

But why 2 years ago? 2/

This "bull market" of 2023 is based on the recycling of excess liquidity. The process goes something like this:

1. 2020+2021 QE double overdose
2. Jan 2022: Begin detox
3. 2023: debt ceiling recycling program
4. 2024: Rate hike hangover

Let's go through these one by one...

1/14

"Is $TLT a trap?" 🧵 2/

QT plays an important role. QT slowly changes supply/demand dynamics such that the TGA isn't soaking up more than it did with the Fed buying bonds.

The "QE replacement" is reverse repo, which softens the blow of QT, but with a disappearing act attached

RRP->TGA->QT

1/7

The last time $SPX was as divergent from liquidity according to DEDO's recent peak was in September 2019.

Are there any differences between then and now?

Let's see...🧵 2/7

First, a similarity in 2019 was the bounce from lows in December of the previous year below CBDET, and subsequent gains of over 20% for $SPX

But liquidity then continued up...and SPX to new highs before something snapped.

1/5

Something big is going on in Japan.

This small move today in the $DXY doesn't look significant, but let's zoom in on Japan's current loss of 92B USD in one day. 2/5

Japan may be "printing" to keep up with YCC, but the asset valuation denominated in USD is struggling.

It's down over 1.8 Trillion USD from the top in January 2021.

Notice the drop in October 2022 marked the bottom for $SPX and $QQQ

1/6

🧵

DEDO top reversal analysis using 1d candles.

Let's take a look at all the top swing reversals in the current bear market after 2022 started, and see if we can find any patterns... 2/6

The white channel, not including the "more extreme" blue channel starts from a bounce very near the 0 bound on 8th January 2021.

red bodied candles followed by consolidation are common.

1/8

$DXY #MOASS 🧵

$EURUSD 2/8

$USDEUR 6 mo time frame going back to 1980

1/12

"A Candle to Remember" 🧵

Just when I think this swing trade saga couldn't get any more amped, something hits me like a Tesla hits pedestrians at 100 mph on auto-pilot mode.

This one's going to get a little personal, so bear with me.

It'll be worth it in the end... 2/12

The Chinese balloon...

All I could think was how strange it is, the metaphors that arise in "reality" if this isn't a simulation of some kind.

Just when it seems all market reversal sirens are blaring, a big bubble pops in the sky, for all to see?

https://twitter.com/rawsalerts/status/1621980596346953729?s=20&t=nuc1GJWUe8PZSR7Osy1BFg

1/20

"Escape Velocity, or Gliding Without a Parachute?" 🧵

When I saw today's action, it reminded me of my early days "investing", mostly in crypto.

I had to start somewhere, and make every mistake humanly possible, to get where I am today.

Let's get into it... 2/x

As a young Electrical Engineer, and eventually Software convert, I naturally became interested in Bitcoin, in 2011.

Occupy Wall Street flooded the media zone. I realized a lot of the terminology was greek to me.

Then I fell down the rabbit hole...#Bitcoin

1/16

The Dark Energy Divergence Oscillator (DEDO)

"What the heck is this thing I'm looking at every day now?"

This one's for you.

Hope you like a little bit of math (not hard).

Let's dive in... 2/16

I'm not one for hiding secrets and trying to profit from them. I'd rather share ideas and grow a community, open source style.

So first I'll go through my thought process.

Then math

Then some charts with latest data from today.

1/15

Something tells me next week is going to be absolutely huge, so I'm taking all day to put my thesis together in one big 🧵

This will be long, and full of data, so grab a 🍺 or ☕️ and make sure to load up on 🍿 for next week.

Not financial advice.

Here we go... 2/15

I can't recap everything I've tweeted for months, but here's the short of it:

I believe we are still in a 🐻 market until proven otherwise.

We've had "bullish" market action recently but anyone who watches this stuff closely knows something isn't right...

1/x

$QQQ plan for tomorrow:

It's WRESBAL day(!) so this will be a longer multi-tweet 🧵

I've been charting some interesting correlation between WRESBAL and #stocks... 2/x

Just look at that correlation. Post market is almost right on the money aligned with the overlay. today we got the weekly data print from FRED (next slide)