Thread by @BrookingsGov

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https://twitter.com/BrookingsGov/status/1621531303983161345

.@EKamarck's opening remarks: According to an @NBCNews poll, Americans were more pessimistic about the future than they had been at any time in the past 30 years. A @washingtonpost poll revealed that Americans believe Biden hasn't accomplished much of anything. #BrookingsSOTU

.@EKamarck: Are we in decline or recovery? Or what?

@davidmwessel: The economy has clearly bounced back from COVID. @POTUS will remind us that 12 million jobs have been created. The unemployment rate is lower than it has been in 50 years. Big picture - economy is doing well.

.@davidmwessel: Angst in the country is economic, but some is not related to the economy...lingering effects of COVID, concern over mass shootings, anger at polarization in Congress. Chances are the economy is going to slow down from here. #BrookingsSOTU

.@davidmwessel: I hope he'll talk about specifics, and he should highlight...the efforts of the Biden administration to make the American economy more competitive. #BrookingsSOTU

.@ConStelz evaluating Biden's leadership in the world:

The Biden admin came in with very firm ideas about what it was going to do: focus on China, step back from the Middle East. Life had other plans. His first year was about anger, anguish, and amazement. #BrookingsSOTU

.@ConStelz: And then came the increasing signs of Russia planning something nasty with Ukraine. As we know now, the Biden admin came in with an unprecedented level of intelligence sharing to convince everyone that this was serious. #BrookingsSOTU

.@ConStelz: There are also elements of tensions. The CHIPS Act ought to be a climate attack act, which is how it's been received in Europe. It introduced an element of tensions and competition in an alliance that has been functioning at unprecedented levels. #BrookingsSOTU

.@ConStelz: The shooting down of the spy balloon over the weekend will bring the question of China back to front and center in American policy. #BrookingsSOTU

.@CamilleBusette: Biden is enjoying a really successful year in terms of groundbreaking legislation. However, people are not aware of those accomplishments. They're hearing about layoffs and dealing with lingering hangover of COVID trauma. #BrookingsSOTU

.@CamilleBusette: I expect the president to go into overdrive to discuss the # of jobs he's created...to focus on the infrastructure bill and the 700,000 jobs that will be created annually. #BrookingsSOTU

.@CamilleBusette: I think he'll spend time on the admin's investment in human capital that came through the omnibus bill in December: retirement savings, military support, educational funds, investments in affordable housing, and support for environmentally tax friendly rebates.

.@EKamarck: On immigration, does he face challenges and opposition from both the left and the right?

@CamilleBusette: Yes. The newest set of policies are not supported by the progressive left. On the right, they're going to talk about the problems at the border up until now.

.@CamilleBusette: He needs to articulate "we have done something," and he'll at least have some answer to Republicans who say that the border is mayhem and immigrants are taking jobs from Americans. #BrookingsSOTU

.@BillGalston: (1) Biden needs to shore up his credibility as a candidate. Because if you look at public opinion polls, many think he's too old to be in office. Mode of delivery will be more important than usual. #BrookingsSOTU

.@BillGalston: (2) Biden needs to make decisions on the second half of his term. Will it be an expansive agenda? Or will he focus more on implementations of what has already been accomplished? #BrookingsSOTU

.@BillGalston: How do you situate yourself in the complex vortex of your accomplishments as president & the mindset of the American people? He really needs to figure out both in tone & substance how he'll orient himself vis-à-vis the mood of the American people. #BrookingsSOTU

.@davidmwessel: The country needs to raise the debt ceiling. This is a point of contention between Republicans and the White House. Biden will call for a clean increase, then go into spending priorities. #BrookingsSOTU

.@davidmwessel: He'll note that the deficit rose under Trump, then fell under the current admin. And he'll say that if we want to do something about the debt ceiling, we need to make corporations and rich people pay their fair share. #BrookingsSOTU

.@BillGalston's advice to Biden, quoting JFK: Let us never negotiate out of fear but let us never fear to negotiate. #BrookingsSOTU

.@davidmwessel: @kevinomccarthy's problem is that he can't say what his party's budget proposal will be. #BrookingsSOTU

.@EKamarck: Is there hope for domestic policy?

@CamilleBusette: It's generally very challenging to pass bipartisan legislation...Substance of debt ceiling negotiations will be scarring for Republicans because of the program funding that will need to be cut. #BrookingsSOTU

.@CamilleBusette: Next up will likely be - what's our posture with respect to additional funding for Ukraine? The war isn't going away, so there needs to be another set of infusions - already a schism within the Republican Party. Well will be poisoned by debt ceiling and Ukraine.

.@ConStelz: The administration's path on Ukraine enjoys bipartisanship in the Senate. #BrookingsSOTU

Should @POTUS talk about his investigations?

@BillGalston: No. He'd be crazy to do so. Americans see all of these investigations as just one more manifestation of politics that is about politicians, not about them. That's not what they want to hear during the State of the Union.

.@CamilleBusette: The murder of Tyre Nichols elevates the issue of police brutality, and there may be a push to provide some options for governors and those at more local levels to address the problem. #BrookingsSOTU

.@CamilleBusette: Both parties would benefit from doing something about Dreamers. It's important to Democrats as we approach 2024 to look like they've done something on immigration. Also important to GOP since they need to invest more in growing their Latino base. #BrookingsSOTU