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Tyler Rogoway

Feb 6 • 11 tweets • 3 min read

The U.S. is not ready for a major conflict when it comes to securing its own homeland's airspace, let alone huge swathes of the enemy's. It is brutally clear. There has been a long-standing lack of creativity in terms of anticipating non-traditional threats...

My readers have heard this all for a decade from me, but we are seeing the impact of this glaring reality and the balloon is just a tiny canary in the coal mine. NORAD, for its part, is moving to rethink how it does business to address some of this, which is great...

but we are, once again, far behind after playing where the puck is and not where it's going for so long. Drones, balloons, cruise missiles, these are all challenging to deal with given how relatively simple they are in many ways, but this is where we need to close the gaps...

Adversaries have played on our weaknesses and have had taken away the sovereignty of our own airspace. Fighter jets, bombers, and surveillance planes are not the threat anymore. We have been playing in the Cold War and 9/11 mindset for far too long as technology has moved on...

Imagine dealing with not one, but 500 balloons heading to the U.S. during a crisis where the vast majority of your capabilities are deployed elsewhere, as is your attention. Any boat hundreds of miles off the coast can launch a drone swarm or even cruise missiles...

Our posture, force structure, and end strength is not prepared for this. It absolutely has to change. This can't be done with fighters on QRA alone, we need to look at domestic SAM capabilities and stopping potential attacks at their source. But we need, above all else, to...

invest in our fighter aircraft/units that are tasked with this NORAD mission. This means modern aircraft with enhanced capabilities and the ability to flex more assets to this mission even during a time of a war abroad. These are defensive capabilities...

they do not threaten anyone. Dove and hawk can back this investment. The bottom line is that the homeland is NOT a fortress and long-range standoff weaponry and unmanned capabilities have been democratized. The adversary is already here. They have been for some time. Wake up.

For a full primer on one major way this has manifested itself, please give this a read in full:
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4…

Final thought, this balloon event and what we know now has also happened, can be used positively. Don't look back, look forward. Come together to close these defensive gaps. Every penny for offense will not make us strong it will make us vulnerable. Now's the time to fix this.

Additional background, links upon links within these posts: thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4…

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More from @Aviation_Intel

Tyler Rogoway

@Aviation_Intel

Feb 4

Nothing confirmed here but based on the video, this looks like an AIM-9 kill, IIR close up.

the ring laser proximity fuse on the AIM-9 would have a better shot at detonating considering the part you want to hit has very little to no radar signature.

The fuze rings the missile, so it looks like it may have even flown into it and detonated which would make some sense.

Read 5 tweets

Tyler Rogoway

@Aviation_Intel

Feb 4

Public Service Announcement!: High-powered laser weapons do not exist operationally on any aircraft anywhere. We do not know of any unclassified test asset with the performance needed that is confirmed to be equipped at this time either. Classified assets would be problematic...

to use in terms of dealing with this balloon even if they existed. Ground based systems of significant power are large installations. The limited number of lower powered ones that are mobile are useful at very close ranges and not through miles of thick atmosphere...

I realize this may be disappointing to some. Directed energy will soon be a dominate force in aerial combat, but we are not there yet so that high-power aerial laser weapons are not an option in this regard.

Read 6 tweets

Tyler Rogoway

@Aviation_Intel

Feb 3

Firing at a balloon with a fighter's gun, in this case the M61 Vulcan, is problematic as far as I understand it. 1.) you are poking small holes in a huge envelope, the round won't explode. 2.) If you are shooting from any lower or shallow aspect, then the rounds will fly...

for miles over a ballistic arch and impact over a wide area — basically an area weapon. They are cannon shells, so when they do, they explode. Training rounds can help in this regard possibly. But unless the shot is high deflection into the ground, and even then, there is risk...

This thing is traveling at high altitude. Not perfectly clear just how high. If it is above or near a F-22's ceiling, the risk goes up considerably using the gun. There are self destruct 20mm rounds M61 can fire, but they are not fielded on aircraft, they are on Centurion...

Read 7 tweets

Tyler Rogoway

@Aviation_Intel

Feb 3

Before you take something like that Chinese spy balloon down, assuming an order is ever given, you get the right assets in place to capture all the high quality visual and especially electronic intelligence on it you can. That can be lost in its destruction.

Meanwhile, you do whatever you can do minimize your vulnerability in terms of intelligence it can collect. This means emission control procedures and possibly even dealing with assets that are visible if it is equipped with EO sensors. Having one of these soaking up intel...

over an active ICBM field is not ideal.

Read 8 tweets

Tyler Rogoway

@Aviation_Intel

Feb 2

Every day more relevant then before. No it does not mean everything weird in the sky is a Chinese balloon or drone, there are still unexplained events, but this has been a big national security failure that is being obscured by the UFO frenzy. thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4…

This is nearly two years old now. We have done a ton of additional reporting with hard documents etc and comment from DoD officials. Where's the USAF who is actually tasked with dealing with these threats? Nowhere.

Our latest on the drone swarms off SOCAL with links going back to all the other articles it's built upon.
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/m…

Read 6 tweets

Tyler Rogoway

@Aviation_Intel

Feb 2

Just looking back to '90s airshows, the best prop act was hands down Delmar Benjamin and the Gee Bee R2 — a famed widowmaker of an air racing legend. Benjamin proved the Gee Bee R wasn't as bad as it was made out to be, in fact, it was actually incredibly nimble, but still, he...

was like a mad man doing the flying he did with an aircraft with such a notorious past and the recreation wasn't far from the original.

Benjamin was an incredible pilot. This was fact. Check out him deal with sudden gear damage on landing in the Gee Bee: