Alex Joiner Profile picture
Feb 7 3 tweets 2 min read
The #RBA raises interest rates by 25bp as broadly expected with more to come. The Bank noting "increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead", pencil in another 25bp hike for March unless the data capitulates before then
A hawkish tone around inflation from the #RBA seemingly coming around to the idea that the narrow path it seeks to tread is becoming more so, interestingly it didn't change its central growth forecasts
Headline inflation forecasts no different either with a return to the top of the band in mid-2025, such elevated inflation rules out any rate cuts this year. No mention of the new underlying forecast even though that was the forecast miss in the data, a curious omission

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More from @IFM_Economist

Feb 7
Trade balance for December not moving the needle with the headline surplus intact
Both the goods and the services balances edging lower
Resources exports weaker offset somewhat by non-monetary gold and other non primary goods
Read 4 tweets
Feb 6
Retail volumes for Q4 were slightly better than expected but still negative and weighing slightly on quarterly GDP growth
If not for food (prepared and unprepared) being solid the number would have been a lot worse with a 2.1%qoq decline in retail sales of durable goods.
Based on the declining demand for durable goods it seems reasonable to expect the aggressive price increases in the quarter will start to fade
Read 4 tweets

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