1/ Looks like an opportunity to play the #greatdivergence in the market has opened up. Markets are already aware that emerging economies are set to outperform, but it hasn’t yet repriced the stocks.
2/ This is pretty unusual from an historical point-of-view and almost looks like an arbitrage opportunity to go long EM, short DM. (Almost, its a bit more complicated than that).
3/ EM multiples tend to trade a bit weird, so in reality this could be more so a signal that the DM markets (or at least the US) is trading way too high given growth rate projections and need to come down.
4/ It still fits the #greatdivergence hypothesis though, as it shows that funny money is losing its ability to juice DM markets in the fact of low growth, inflation, and high interest rates.
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1/ Everyone seems to think the recent jobs numbers show a strong US economy. But if we ignore the headline numbers are look under the hood we see reliable recession indicators. 🧵
2/ Job growth came in strong in all sectors apart from tech. This includes construction which is a good cyclical indicator. Yet if you look at the data, construction job growth tends to lag construction investment growth - and the latter is currently deeply negative.
3/ Here is how the situation played out during the Great Recession. Investment growth went negative in Q3 2006, while construction job growth only went negative in Q3 2007. So, we should expect a lag of around a year - all else equal.
1/ Looks like China is trying to rebalance its economy. 🧵
2/ While its true that China has developed an alternative, non-Western trading block, the country hasn’t relied on exports for most of its growth since the GFC.
3/ Instead its relied on insane levels of investment/capital formation which accounts for nearly 42% of GDP.
1/ When is the US likely to fall into a recession and how deep is it likely to be? 🧵
2/ What follows is based on the hypothesis that the US is experiencing a bursting of a housing bubble and the collapse of the construction sector. For details on that see this thread:
3/ The chart below shows how long consumption spending held up in the face of a collapsing construction sector in 2006-07. As we can see, consumption held up around 8 quarters before collapsing at which point the economy was in deep recession.
1/ Why you shouldn’t pay any attention to the headline US GDP numbers. 🧵
2/ We’re in stagflation right now. So everything is a bit crazy. Inventories bounce around, consumer spending ticks over. What really stands out, however, is housing investment. Let’s zoom in on that.
3/ Whoa! In Q3 residential fixed investment fell by 1.2%. That could have been a blip. But in Q4 it cratered by 9.2%! That is NOT a blip. The construction sector has collapsed.