@aoalp As we discussed privately, Manhattan office supply and demand is more intriguing than it appears on the surface. While class B and C will convert to residential and thus reduce supply, class A gets even better positioned.
@aoalp And more residential physically locates people near the class A offices, where the high-paying jobs are. I’d be curious how many people are making six and seven figures working from home?
@aoalp The coup de grâce from Roth $VNO would be consolidating more class A office. This is an identical supply-demand and consolidation thesis to $RIG, funny enough. As I often note, both ultra-deepwater drillships and supertall towers have a newbuild cost of roughly $1 billion each.
@aoalp And a barrier-to-entry thesis, especially with a project like Penn.
What I would most like to see is further consolidation, ideally down to an oligopoly of four firms or less in Manhattan class A office, controlling perhaps 80% of properties.
What I would most like to see is further consolidation, ideally down to an oligopoly of four firms or less in Manhattan class A office, controlling perhaps 80% of properties.
@aoalp Another parallel that I see between #office and #offshore is that the true peaks occurred long ago; so far back that few people even remember when times were good. With office and $VNO, the big peak was actually 2007...
@aoalp While office had an interest-rate-driven rebound from '14-'17, thinking back to the colossal Zell-Blackstone deal is almost foreign today: $39 billion.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
