$RIG $TDW $NE $VAL $SDRL $BORR $DO
1/n
When the last cycle cracked…
I remember quite vividly when $NE printed the first sub $400 day rate…$330k for 3-4 yrs. It was fall 2014. At that moment I 4x my short.
1/n
When the last cycle cracked…
I remember quite vividly when $NE printed the first sub $400 day rate…$330k for 3-4 yrs. It was fall 2014. At that moment I 4x my short.
2/n
Mind you, $RIG has peaked at 55 the previous summer and was 45 when the $NE 330 print came. You don’t need to be a genius. The head of the fund told me we could get satellites to track which rigs were being laid up
Mind you, $RIG has peaked at 55 the previous summer and was 45 when the $NE 330 print came. You don’t need to be a genius. The head of the fund told me we could get satellites to track which rigs were being laid up
3/n
It was always a hurricane in those meetings but I just kept saying “perfect substitutes…$330 just printed…it’s over…don’t need satellites…”
$RIG went from $45 to $12 in 3 months. That is what the end of the cycle feels like. We are not close
It was always a hurricane in those meetings but I just kept saying “perfect substitutes…$330 just printed…it’s over…don’t need satellites…”
$RIG went from $45 to $12 in 3 months. That is what the end of the cycle feels like. We are not close
4/n
I get a lot of questions from people about whether they missed it. We are still very early days. Every cycle has gone THROUGH new build economics. This cycle will stay above for longer than any cycle in my view.
I get a lot of questions from people about whether they missed it. We are still very early days. Every cycle has gone THROUGH new build economics. This cycle will stay above for longer than any cycle in my view.
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