$GEO

ICE response. Says all invoices tracked by ICE…implying no fraud.

Per the FAR, facilitation and oversight of the task orders and subsequent invoices are reviewed and approved by certified contracting officers (CO) and contracting officer ice.gov/statements/atd…… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Wedbush:

$RIG $TDW $NE $VAL $SDRL $BORR $DO

1/n

When the last cycle cracked…

I remember quite vividly when $NE printed the first sub $400 day rate…$330k for 3-4 yrs. It was fall 2014. At that moment I 4x my short. 2/n

Mind you, $RIG has peaked at 55 the previous summer and was 45 when the $NE 330 print came. You don’t need to be a genius. The head of the fund told me we could get satellites to track which rigs were being laid up

$GEO

Title 42 SCOTUS is a sideshow. It will go away but POTUS pivot away from 42 already in progress. Title 42 down to 30.7% of encounters on SW border vs. 60+ at peak. 42 = Expelled, while 8 = US Custody (ie $GEO or $CXW)

1/n 2/n

The recent ICE data update showed $GEO SmartLINK numbers continuing to ramp higher. Now at 296k vs. $257k at 9/30

$RIG $DO $NE $VAL $SDRL $TDW

$SDRL buys former $SDLP (now aquadrill). Aqua came out of C11 last spring. Distressed holders. My math is they got $176 million per floater. Not great print for $DO. For sector continues consolidation theme but just 5 rigs so whatever. for $SDRL, Aqua guys have 38% of the stock so will remain a massive overhang. PF company now 12 UDWs, 3 harsh, 4 JUs so probably needs to merge with $BORR or find a way to keep scaling. $NE $RIG $VAL unlikely to be buyers of PF company.

$AGL $CANO $CMAX $PRVA $OSH

I fade AGL for other reasons than this:
-20 year contracts have no terminal value
-DCE #'s are trash
-50/50 JV split makes it impossible to make money
-Growth slowing

1/n

https://twitter.com/CitronResearch/status/1599824057993773059

2/n

The LT Q? for VBC is if they can encroach on the 15/85 split. It is nonsensical for MCOs to keep 15% of premiums & lay off 100% of the risk over time. MCOs / CMS need to through a bone to VBC to make money (which no one is doing now)

$XLE $XOP $OIH

Everything I heard at the conference today points to:
1. Limited US production growth in ‘23. Inflation + Recession + Capital Return = 5-10% production growth
2. No management team wants to deviate from orthodoxy when follow the heard = make money

1/n 2/n

3. Middle East + Offshore is where growth will come
4. It’s a great time to be in energy PE given capital scarcity and prospective returns
5. Permian Basin praise is to E&P as Reagan is to GOP
6. I think the next leg is an M&A wave, especially if $XOP lags

$LPRO

MS downgrade. They have a $4.50 low case. This thing is in a tough neighborhood but takes zero balance sheet risk. Share / penetration with credit unions / refi channel is ramping like it did in 2008

1/3 2/3

$COF comments support same trend. Note that $LPRO credit qualify a lot better than $CACC on FICO.